The Quantum Industry Is in Superposition

By Mike Kilroy

When I attended the Q2B conference in Santa Clara, Calif. last month, I spoke to and heard from many different quantum technology experts.

My takeaway -- the quantum industry is in a superposition of opinion regarding its future.

What do I mean by that?? Opinions varied so widely on what’s next for quantum computing and how soon we will see quantum advantage, that there was no consensus – not one bit of agreement between any two individuals.?

The names will remain anonymous, but here’s a sampling of opinions that I heard at the show:

• The CEO (and physicist) of a quantum startup: Clear advantage over classical computing will happen – and be proven – in a specific use case in the first part of 2025.
• A leading quantum physicist and academic: Quantum advantage will happen in 10 years, maybe 5-7 years if we’re lucky but more likely 2035. (This, of course, has been the standard date for many.)?
• A quantum hardware developer: Certain quantum computers will be advanced enough to provide advantages over classical computing in pure scientific research this year, if it isn’t occurring already.?
• A quantum physicist: Quantum advantage will arrive eventually but will not offer enough commercial value to be worth the cost.

I came away from the conference thinking, “How can an industry that has been decades in the making, with huge and growing investments and accelerating breakthroughs, still be in such a state of confusion over the timeline to real-world benefit?”

The industry’s tech giants recently confused the wider public as well. Google’s Willow announcement in December finally placed quantum computing front and center in the public eye, including Wall Street investors, with highly optimistic framing.

Yet just this past week, NVIDIA doused the flame when its CEO said ‘very useful’ quantum computing would not happen for another 20 years.

What the heck is going on here?

You could attribute the confusion to several possible factors: the lack of consensus on what defines terms such as ‘useful’ and ‘advantage;’ the varying proximities to the cutting-edge R&D by the commercial companies; unintentional or intended organizational and personal agendas reducing objectivity; or something else.

My guess? The real answer is close to what a quantum scientist once told me when I asked when a certain engineering problem would be solved: We don’t know, Mike.?It could be months, it could be years. We are solving these problems as we go. That’s the nature of R&D.

What has happened is that the natural uncertainty of research outcomes in the development of an extremely complex and unprecedented technology is now fully in public view. Often, R&D chugs along quietly in the background until real-world results are demonstrated and announced. But quantum’s potential to dramatically transform business, medicine, energy and much more is drawing intense interest and expectations. And, of course, public and private investment is required to meet those expectations.?I expect that intensity to only increase.?

So what is next for the quantum industry??My take is the industry needs, and will likely have, a moment in 2025 where the true possibilities of the technology are clear to everyone. (After all, this is the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology!) There are too many smart, well-financed researchers around the world diligently working away for that moment not to take place.

But for now, the industry remains in superposition until that box gets opened and we can all see if that cat is dead or alive.

In Case You Missed It …

Growing quantum technology requires innovation, both in technology as well as connecting talent. On episode 19 of The Quantum Spin by HKA podcast, “Building Quantum Software and Community,” Matt Johnson talks with HKA’s Veronica Combs about how his company, QC Ware Corp. , is developing tools for drug discovery and material design, and how he convenes the quantum community three times a year at Q2B conferences in Silicon Valley, Paris and Tokyo. Listen to the full episode here:? https://hkamarcom.com/podcast/building-quantum-software-and-community/