Is Quantum Computing Coming in 5 Years?

Is quantum computing merely five years away from real-world applications or will it be decades before it becomes useful? Amazon’s new quantum computing chip, Ocelot, and recent breakthroughs from Microsoft, Google, and China’s Zuchongzhi 3.0 processor have reignited this long-standing debate.

By Mohit Pandey

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is optimistic. “I’m hopeful that it’s more in the five-year range than in the 20-year range,” he said, drawing parallels to generative AI, which took decades of foundational research before reaching mainstream adoption.

Bill Gates shared his optimism, suggesting that quantum computing could become useful within three to five years, while Google Quantum AI founder Hartmut Neven has publicly stated that commercial quantum computing applications could arrive within the same timeframe.?

Microsoft has also entered the quantum race with Majorana 1, which it claims is the world’s first quantum chip utilising topological qubits, designed to solve industrial-scale problems in years, not decades.

Not Everyone Is Convinced

However, NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang doesn’t buy into the five-year hype. At CES, Huang said that bringing “very useful quantum computers” to market could take decades, estimating 15 to 30 years before quantum processors (qubits) scale enough to be practical.?

“If you picked 20 years, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it,” he said. His line of thought wasn’t received very well though.

Read the full story here.

China’s Quantum Leap?

Meanwhile, China’s moves could put all these debates to rest. Researchers from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) have unveiled the Zuchongzhi 3.0—a superconducting quantum processor with 105 qubits, operating one million times faster than Google’s latest Willow quantum chip.

In a benchmark test, Zuchongzhi 3.0 completed a task in seconds that would take classical supercomputers over 6.4 billion years.

This isn’t China’s first big quantum breakthrough. In December 2024, the country launched Tianyan-504, a superconducting quantum computer equipped with a 504-qubit Xiaohong chip, surpassing the 500-qubit mark.

With China advancing at an unprecedented pace, is the West falling behind in the quantum race?

And What About India?

India is doubling down on its National Quantum Mission (NQM) with a ?600 crore allocation in the Union Budget 2025, a significant jump from the ?86 crore earmarked last year.?

Ajai Chowdhry, chairman of NQM, previously told AIM that countries like the US are reluctant to share their quantum advancements, reinforcing India’s need for self-reliance. A team led by Urbasi Sinha from Raman Research Institute recently completed research on achieving secure satellite-to-ground quantum communication in Ladakh, after exploring three ideal sites for ground stations in India.

Several Indian startups have already started selling quantum products, pushing India further into the global quantum race. But given that the big tech of the West and China are also making big strides in this realm, India needs to boost its quantum mission.?