Will Quantum Computers cause a Bitcoin crash in 2026-28?

Background:

I've read a bold prediction on LinkedIn suggesting that Bitcoin could crash between 2026-28, due to quantum computers, upon reaching what the author called the "line of death." There are many other predictions for 2025 and crypto.

My Views:

I'm not one for technical analysis (a tale for another time), so I'll skip over the "line of death" and offer my take on potential reasons for a Bitcoin crash, if one were to occur. Let's differentiate between crypto mining and transactions:

(1) Crypto Mining:

I don't believe that quantum computers will cause a crash in crypto mining. Hardening against Grover's algorithm* for SHA-256 hashes is quite manageable. Just for context, my personal passwords are already between 64-72 characters long. For crypto wallets, we might need to double the number of words in the seed phrase that Satoshi Nakamoto originally proposed.

*An algorithm that could make finding certain data faster.

(2) Crypto Transactions:

There is indeed a risk to transactions from quantum computers using Shor’s algorithm**. However, a crash can be averted through 'crypto agility' - essentially, a strategic shift towards Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) algorithms. Moving from the current ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to quantum-safe alternatives like lattice-based cryptography is not only feasible but should be a straightforward decision with broad consensus, in my opinion.

** An algorithm that could discover a private key based on a public key.

(3) Market Manipulation:

A crash could well happen not due to quantum computing but rather as a result of classic pump-and-dump schemes. Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 are already showing signs of Bitcoin being manipulated by market heavyweights.

(4) Social Engineering and AI Trading:

The dump phase could be triggered by social engineering and the deployment of AI-driven automated trading. For example, a sensational claim by researchers that they've hacked cryptographic techniques using something rudimentary, say, a smartwatch or pacemaker, could be picked up by clickbait journalists and amplified by social media influencers. I'm not naming names to avoid litigation, but you know who these players are. Do your own research!

(5) Long-term Perspective:

Despite the potential for a crash or correction, if I take a longer view (2025-35), I believe that some cryptocurrencies will become a staple in global multi-asset portfolios. They will continue to attract the full spectrum of investors from ultra-high-net-worth individuals to freelancers on platforms like Fiverr.

Santosh

10.1.2025

Important disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Neither I nor my five AI programs can predict Bitcoin prices for the next 24 hours, let alone 10 years. One thing's certain about all predictions: at least half of them will be wrong, and we don't know which. I am not responsible for your losses or missed opportunities.