Q&A on the Future of Transportation

Leif Dormsjo is Senior Vice President for Infrastructure Asset Management at Louis Berger Services (LBS), the operating and maintenance division of WSP USA. Before joining LBS in September 2017, he served as the Director of the District Department of Transportation (DDOT) in Washington, D.C., and as a member of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Board of Directors. Prior to joining D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s administration, Dormsjo was the Deputy Secretary for the Maryland Department of Transportation (MDOT). He has also served as the Chief of Staff for the Baltimore Department of Transportation

With 20 years of experience in transportation sector, Leif comments on the state of transportation in the wake of COVID-19.

Pre-COVID-19, what were some of the hot topics within the transportation industry?

Prior to the pandemic, there was a great deal of product development and investment in connected and autonomous vehicles, electrification and battery cell technology, and micro mobility (scooters and bicycles). The valuations of the companies in the transportation innovation sector have held up in the crisis period, and in many cases have increased. These enterprises have deep-pocketed sponsors and partners that will allow them to sustain and adapt their business models through challenging economic conditions.

What does the future of transportation look like in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic?

In contrast to the private market, the outlook for public infrastructure is bleaker than during the Great Recession. What most people may not realize is that by the time we experienced the recession in 2008, overall transportation spending had already suffered a pronounced decline that began in 2001. The federal stimulus in 2009 and subsequent slow recovery only brought the nation’s transportation assets back to a depressed level of investment. Todays’ fiscal and monetary tools are even more limited than a decade ago.

What will the public sector need to do to 1) survive reduced ridership in the near-term and 2) evolve with the future state of transportation?

The entire public transit industry is hemorrhaging from a budget perspective. For instance, New York’s MTA recently requested nearly $12 billion to avoid massive service reductions. Without a federal bailout, the major urban transit agencies will come out of this downturn with reduced operating frequencies, smaller service areas and greater vulnerability to disruptions. The large systems in New York, Boston, Chicago and D.C. are essentially too big to fail, but they have been too big to reform as well. The combined price tag for decades of deferred maintenance and mounting operating deficits will force hard decisions on staff levels, capital project funding and equipment replacement. 

I think the public sector needs to shift away from reflexively investing in legacy transportation programs without achieving structural reform. We should embrace models that empower users across a range of public and private services, such as directly subsidizing the users rather than the providers. Users, especially from low-income and disabled populations, should be able spend their transportation dollar more flexibly, selecting the options that deliver the most value. If done in the right way, the public expenditure can be more cost-effective, and the safety net strengthened.

How can cities plan for the future state of transportation?

The pandemic has accelerated transformation in people and goods movement, telework, automation, and disruptive technologies, but the related benefits and risks will be unevenly distributed among metropolitan areas. Leading cities won’t bemoan these changes, but rather will re-invent public space, welcome different transportation models and foster new ways to attract and retain urban residents and businesses. Cities need to re-imagine how they can serve people’s need for social interaction, proximity and well-being. They should be engaging the public now, rather than waiting for the pandemic to lift or the next comprehensive master plan. Pittsburgh is a good example of how this type of thinking is being translated into planning and implementation.

How can the public sector utilize policy to implement change and reduce congestion? 

Policy makers should adopt a “trust but verify” approach when evaluating new transportation initiatives, paying special attention to environmental and social consequences. Rubber-tire solutions like ride-hailing and next-day shipping are wonderful conveniences, but you can’t ignore the associated roadway congestion. Similarly, we should embrace new mobility options, but not lose sight of the social impact on low-paid app-based drivers, displaced transit operators and overtired truckers. Innovation in transportation should not come at the expense of environmental health and the dignity of work.

How can the public and private sector work together to create dynamic transportation network in urban environments?

Think about the prototypical downtown parking garage. If the parking garages in your area aren’t being (partially) repurposed for micro mobility, ghost kitchens and other services, your local economy is missing a transformation opportunity. Inventive street design, such as separated bikeways, parklets, and curbside management zones, would be another indicator of whether the local government and business community “get” the need to re-imagine how we will move, interact and create into the future. Washington D.C.’s local agencies and its Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) operate along these lines and they produce great projects together.

What cities around the country/world are best positioned for the future of transportation and why?

Mid-size cities, like Boise, Durham and Madison, are already seeing in-migration from people moving closer to relatives, lowering their cost of living and leveraging more permissive work-from-home policies. Many mid-sized cities also have strong anchor institutions, such as universities and hospitals. Those vital civic organizations can either catalyze or block transportation projects and initiatives, depending on their alignment with local government, business and community stakeholders. The jurisdictions that move early to address the economic, racial and suburban-urban divisions in their communities will achieve the most success.