[Q&A] Will China one day “own” Ethiopia?

Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden are the duo behind the China Africa Project and hosts of the popular China in Africa Podcast. They’re here to answer your most pressing, puzzling, even politically incorrect questions about all things related to the Chinese in Africa and Africans in China. If you want to know something, anything at all… just hit them up online and they’ll give it to you straight:

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The debut of Ethiopia’s new $3.4 billion electric rail-line that links the capital of Addis Ababa to the port of Djibouti prompted widespread international media attention this week, particularly in the West. This week’s Q&A features a transcript of an email interview between FRANCE 24 journalist Tony Todd and the China Africa Project’s Eric Olander on the implications of this new rail project and what it says about the current state of China-Africa relations.

Please click here to read the finished article by Tony Todd that includes quotes from this interview. Also, a short disclaimer: Eric is a former colleague of Tony’s when Eric was the Editor in Chief of FRANCE 24’s digital division from 2011-2012.

TONY TODD: First, the obvious one which you've probably heard a million times: What are the long-term implications for a country like Ethiopia having so much Chinese investment. Are they selling out? Will they be "owned" by China? Is this a new era of colonialism?

To suggest that China’s infrastructure development agenda in Ethiopia and elsewhere across Africa is some kind of new form of colonialism is largely a western narrative that demonstrates a stunning misunderstanding of the meaning of colonialism and Africa’s violent history under European imperial rule. The Chinese are extending loans and grants to build infrastructure in countries like Ethiopia as part of bilateral agreements mutually agreed upon by two sovereign governments. Colonialism, by contrast, was the comprehensive forcible subjugation of one people by foreign armies. Colonialism was all-encompassing that imposed a foreign language, religion, political system and legal system on African countries. The Chinese are doing no such thing. The Chinese and Africans have a shared history of being the victims of European colonialism and they are both very conscious of this painful past.

With regards to the long term implications, well, that depends on how you look at the issue. The more optimistic outlook is that China is filling a desperately-needed void to help finance some of the trillion dollars that Africa needs to build infrastructure. Today, the Chinese, and to some extent Japan, are the only countries prepared to engage Africa to build badly-needed roads, airports, bridges and hospitals while Western countries spend disproportionately large amounts of money in Africa on military affairs (particularly the United States and France). So in this regard, China’s commitment to spend tens of billions of dollars in both loans and grants in Africa when others do not is highly appreciated throughout Africa.

The danger of China’s infrastructure diplomacy on the continent, though, comes in the way that Beijing finances a lot of these projects. A number of African countries, including Ethiopia, are taking on significant amounts of debt which is increasingly worrisome. In some countries, such as Angola, where that debt is leveraged against natural resources such as oil, there are now liquidity problems because those countries cannot sell their most valuable assets for cash and instead traded it for infrastructure development. So the combination of mounting debt, potentially sparking a new debt crisis, combined with persistently low commodity prices tied to infrastructure loans is now becoming a grave concern in some African countries.

TONY TODD: Building infrastructure across the continent will be tricky what with wars and instability in places like South Sudan or the Central African Republic. What role can china play in bringing the stability in needs to roll out projects like this?

China’s role in bringing stability to parts of African really depends on the specific issues and countries. In terms of post-conflict stabilization, China now has more United Nations troops deployed in Africa detailed to multinational peacekeeping operations than any other permanent member of the Security Council. In all, China has over 3,000 blue helmets active in Africa, including combat-ready troops in active conflict zones such as South Sudan. China has also been an active participant in multinational anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia to facilitate the transit of international shipping that was paralyzed a decade ago. So in that sense, China is making real, meaningful contributions to African peace and stability.

 The Chinese contribution to building this desperately needed infrastructure is critical for African countries to develop.

In those countries that are not afflicted by war or instability, the development of infrastructure is critical to sparking economic growth. China’s road building initiatives, power generation projects and now the completion of Africa’s first intra-continental rail lines are significant contributions. When roads are built that means rural farmers can bring their crops to market in cities. When rail lines are built from interior Ethiopia to the ports in Djibouti, that opens huge new opportunities for trade. When hydro-electric and coal powered electric power stations, that means schools, business and homes can become more productive. Without proper infrastructure, economic development is limited. The Chinese contribution to building this desperately needed infrastructure is critical for African countries to develop.

Now, of course, there are downsides whenever this kind of development occurs, just as it is in every country in the world. There are negative environmental consequences, instances of corruption and a disruption of existing political orders, but that would be the same if the Chinese built it or Africans themselves.

Developed countries focus considerably less attention on infrastructure development than emerging markets (instead concentrating their efforts on civil rights, democracy and religious issues for example) and the fact that China emerged to become the world’s second largest economy in a generation due in part to the rapid development of its own infrastructure is instructive for Africa.

The bottom line is that without reliable, strategic infrastructure economic development is just not possible and when economies are growing stability often follows.

TONY TODD: Are you surprised that the new train line will be operated 100% by Chinese (for five years until enough Ethiopians can be trained to be conductors etc)? I've flown Ethiopia Airlines and they seem to be very able to do this kind of thing themselves...

The infrastructure deals are large and very complex so it is risky to second-guess these kinds of decisions without inside knowledge as to what the motivations are for the two countries to agree for the Chinese to run the trains for 5 years. It is easy to lob criticisms from the outside without understanding the key issues that led to this decision. That said, it should be noted that unlike aviation, this new international rail system is entirely new to the continent. Ethiopia, like other African countries, do not have a stable supply of engineers, technicians and even conductors to operate new rail technology so if it was my guess as to why they decided to have the Chinese operate the lines for the first five years it probably has more to do with giving the Ethiopians enough time to develop the necessary human resources to facilitate a gradual transition from Chinese operation to local ownership over the course of five years. There may also be financial incentives for the Chinese to recuperate some of the costs of their investment in a project as large as this which is a common tactic in infrastructure development both in Africa and even in the West (private operation for five years, for example, and then transition over to public ownership).

It is very easy to apply all sorts of scary conspiracy theories to these kinds of decisions when in fact there are often logistical and strategic motivations behind such policies.

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