Who knew that the big risk this year was a US economy that would be too hot? Coming into 2023, strategists were bearish following the market’s drubbing the previous year. The consensus expectation was that it would be a tough first half followed by second-half resilience as the Fed got its way in the form of declining inflation.?
That narrative didn’t play out exactly. An unforeseen regional banking crisis in March brought out new fears of an imminent recession and tumbling interest rates. Fear was short-lived and confined, however. The Nasdaq went on to post its best first half in 40 years as mega-cap tech stock powered higher amid optimism surrounding AI, while small caps and value equities lagged.
Navigating by the Stars Under Cloudy Skies
Entering the second half, macro conditions were generally tame. Interest rates had settled into what felt like a comfortable range while financial conditions loosened by way of rising stock markets and a calm US dollar. Oil prices were also low – under $70 as the summer driving season kicked into full gear.?
Another round of solid earnings reports in late July and early August briefly masked a brewing storm as the S&P 500 notched its year-to-date high on July 31. Fed Chair Powell’s message at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium featured few surprises, but the September Fed ‘pause’ was met with significant selling pressure since the FOMC erased a pair of possible rate cuts from its 2024 outlook.
Higher Yields = Higher Risk
Over the last three months, indebted companies have had to scramble to outline risk management plans with their financing structure given the steep increase in intermediate and long-term interest rates. That will undoubtedly be a key theme across industry conferences this quarter.?
Making the macro picture cloudier is the state of household finances. While real wage growth is absolutely present given a still-strong jobs market and ebbing inflation trends, the resumption of student loan repayments, much steeper borrowing rates, and sky-high housing costs for first-time home buyers could result in softer holiday sales this go around.?
There’s plenty of fodder for both hope and concern, greed and fear, as we wrap up 2023.?
Questions to Ponder:
- Amid slowing buybacks, how will higher borrowing costs impact the state of corporate capital allocation decisions??
- Can the consumer continue showing up strong during the most important quarter for discretionary spending??
- Will weight-loss drugs continue to alter the consumption trends, particularly for Consumer Staples companies?
- Are executives prepared to navigate a trickier macro picture given recent jumps in the dollar and oil prices that, despite their October pullback, remain up from earlier in 2023?
- A recession appears to have been sidestepped this year, but the next several quarters are expected to feature a slowdown from Q3’s torrid pace – are firms prepared for such weaker activity?
- Was the IPO revival short-lived? Arm and Instacart garnered much fanfare in their debuts, but recent share-price performances from that pair have been uninspiring.
- Is there any near-term hope for growth out of ex-US markets and embattled domestic small caps??
All this and more in the weeks ahead. Conferences, summits, seminars, and other gatherings of leaders across the corporate world are critical for investors to follow. Here are some of the major conferences sourced by Wall Street Horizon that investors and traders should keep on their Q4 calendars.
Information Technology & Communication Services
- October 12: UBS Disruptive Technology CEO Summit
- November 13: JP Morgan Global TMT Conference
- November 14: Needham 17th Annual Networking, Communications & Security Conference (virtual)
- November 27: UBS Global Technology Conference
- November 28: Wells Fargo 7th Annual TMT Summit
- December 4: UBS Global Media, Telecoms Communications, Technology (TMT) Conference
- December 6: Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference?
Health Care
- October 11: Jefferies Inaugural Biotech CNS/Neuro Summit
- October 12: ROTH MKM 2nd Annual Healthcare Opportunities Conference
- October 17: 3rd Annual Needham Private Biotech Company Virtual 1 on 1 Forum
- October 25: Jefferies Cannabis Summit
- November 8: UBS Biopharma Conference
- November 13: Credit Suisse 32nd Annual Healthcare Conference
- November 13: UBS Healthcare Conference
- November 14: Jefferies 14th Annual London Global Healthcare Conference
Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples
- October 24: American Automotive Summit
- November 14: Jefferies Miami Consumer Conference
- November 15: Bank of America Consumer and Retail Conference
- November 21: Deutsche Bank: Business Services, Leisure, Transport and Retail Conference
- December 5: Morgan Stanley Global Consumer and Retail Conference
- December 11: Advanced Automotive Battery 23rd Annual Conference (AABC)
Financials & Real Estate
- October 10: UBS 26th Annual SA Financials Conference
- October 12: Bernstein 20th Annual Quantitative Finance Conference
- October 24: Annual J.P. Morgan / Robin Hood Investors Conference
- October 26: Piper Sandler Insurance & Asset Wealth Management Summit
- November 15: Barclays Leveraged Credit Forum
- November 28: Bank of America Securities Leveraged Finance Conference
- November 28: UBS Global Real Estate CEO/CFO Conference?
Industrials
- October 12: Raymond James Defense & Government Conference
- November 7: Baird 53rd Annual Global Industrial Conference
- November 15: Baird Government & Defense Conference
- November 29: UBS Industrials Summit
- December 5: Morgan Stanley 6th Annual Space Summit?
Energy & Utilities
- October 10: Stifel Virtual Renewable Conference
- October 11: Morningstar Sustainable Investing Summit
- November 7: Societe Generale ESG SRI Conference
- November 8: Credit Suisse 5th Annual Utilities Conference
- December 5: Wells Fargo Midstream, Utility & Renewables Symposium
- December 5: Credit Suisse Climate Tech Conference (virtual)
Materials
- October 10: Citi Global Resources Conference
- November 13: RBC Capital Markets Senior Precious Metals Conference
- November 14: Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals, Agriculture and Packaging Conference
- November 14: Roth MKM 3rd Annual AgTech Answers Conference
- November 15: Goldman Sachs Metals & Mining Conference
- November 28: Citi Basic Materials Conference?
Regional
- November 2: Bank of America China Conference
- November 2: Barclays Asia Forum
- November 15: Morgan Stanley European Technology Media and Communications Conference
- November 15: Morgan Stanley 22nd Annual Asia Pacific Summit
- November 29: JP Morgan Brazil Opportunities Conference
- November 29: Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Conference
- November 29: Bank of America BOFA European Materials Conference?
Investor Specific & Multi-Sector
- November 16: JP Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference
- November 22: JP Morgan UK Leaders Conference
- December 6: Deutsche Bank 8th Annual Lithium I Battery Supply Chain Conference
- December 6: Sidoti Winter Micro Cap Conference
