Q1 global LCD TV panel shipment area increased by 10%, with large sizes increasing across the board

Author: Semiconductor display supply chain Source: Runto Technology Research

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According to the "Global LCD TV Panel Market Monthly Tracking" report released by RUNTO, in the first quarter of 2024, global large-size LCD TV panel shipments were 56.5M pieces, up 1.3% and 11.3% respectively from the same period last year; The shipment area reached 41.0M square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a month-on-month increase of 5.6%.

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The slight increase in shipments comes from the high shipment expectations of panel manufacturers, the panel buyers' early response to the upcoming sports marketing, and the prediction of panel price increases. This is the consensus and resonance between supply and demand.

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The growth rate of shipment area is greater than that of shipment volume, which reflects the upward trend of the average size of panel shipments. In the first quarter, the global average size of LCD TV panels was 49.3 inches, an increase of 1.9 inches from the same period last year. However, compared with the fourth quarter of last year, it dropped by 1.3 inches. The reason for the quarter-on-quarter decrease was mainly due to the release of demand for small and medium-sized products in Q1 compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The total shipment volume of products 50 inches and below increased by 20.8% quarter-on-quarter. Overall, the average size will fluctuate around 50 inches in the short term and spiral upward in the long term.

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In addition, in the first quarter of this year, the global LCD TV panel industry also has four significant characteristics:

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1. Mainland panel manufacturers have a mature strategy of “determining production based on sales” and their operations are smooth. In the past two years, the layout of LCD panel factories has become more and more concentrated, and most of them are concentrated in mainland China. Under the Chinese-speaking system, tacit understanding is easier to achieve than before. On this basis, major panel manufacturers have achieved an utilization rate of 80% in January, a half-month repair in February, full production of major lines in March and April, and production reductions in May or June. The overall changes are flexible and rhythmic. The past obsession of "full production and full sales, and determining sales based on production" no longer exists.

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2. Panel prices rebounded strongly. Due to the combination of polarizer supply obstacles and panel factory annual repairs, overseas terminal market stabilization, sports marketing expectations, and panel factory business strategies, LCD TV panel prices completed a full set of hard landing, stabilization, and strong rebound in the first quarter. , the short cycle is surprising. Then entering the second quarter, prices of various sizes reached previous highs one after another.

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3. Orders from brand manufacturers remain unchanged. Like all commodity consumption psychology, the operation of buying up and not down will always make people feel safe. From January to March this year, brand manufacturers continued to place additional panel purchase orders, which also gave greater confidence to the strong rebound in panel prices this time.

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4. A super-sized storm is coming. Regarding production capacity consumption, panel manufacturers tend to produce larger-sized products. At the same time, super-large sizes can bring more revenue and profits to panel manufacturers. In the first quarter of this year, shipments of super-large LCD TV panels of 75 inches and above increased significantly by 32.6% year-on-year, and the combined market share increased by 2.0 percentage points to 8.6%. Among them, the combined shipments of the two major sizes, 98-inch and 100-inch, exploded by 350.0% compared with the same period last year. Looking backward, this doubling growth will continue.

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According to the "First Quarter Shipment Report of Chinese TV Market Brands" released by RUNTO, in the first quarter of this year, in the leading region of the global TV market, sales of 85-inch and above TVs in the Chinese market doubled. It is predicted that in the Chinese market for the whole year of 2024, the sales of super large-panel TVs of 85 inches and above will reach 3.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 51%, and the market share will reach 8.2%; among them, the sales of TVs of 98 inches and above (excluding laser TVs) will increase by 65% year-on-year.

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Regional pattern: production capacity regulation, the share of the continental system decreases, and the Japanese and Korean systems benefit

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In the first quarter of this year, the top three TV panel manufacturers in mainland China cut production in order to stabilize the market and maintained production for two weeks in February. As a result, their share of the global market declined.

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The total shipment volume of the four mainland panel manufacturers in Q1 was 37.39 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and the combined market share was 66.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6 percentage points. Despite the decline in share in the quarter, mainland Chinese manufacturers still have a firm say in the global LCD TV panel industry.

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Under the drastic adjustment of the production capacity of mainland panel factories, Japanese and Korean panel factories have become the biggest beneficiaries. In the first quarter, the combined market share of Japanese and Korean panel manufacturers was 13.4%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively. The production capacity of LGD (LGD Display) Guangzhou factory gradually recovered, with the average utilization rate in Q1 exceeding 70%; Sharp's output and shipments increased steadily in the first quarter, and the combined shipments of the two major factories increased significantly by 48.2% and 48.2% year-on-month respectively. 23.9%.

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RUNTO predicts that starting from 2024, the global panel industry will begin a new round of mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations with more than one incident, and ultimately the focus of the panel industry will further focus on the mainland.

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The combined market share of Taiwanese panel manufacturers Innolux and AUO in the first quarter of this year was 20.4%, a slight increase; their combined shipments increased by 3.3% and 10.2% respectively compared with the same period last year.

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2024Q1 Global LCD TV panel market regional structure and changes

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Data source: RUNTO, unit: %

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Manufacturer pattern: The eight major panel manufacturers are evenly split between gains and losses; the long-tail camp is changing again

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Within the scope of statistics, the world's eight major panel manufacturers have seen a half-way increase in shipments. Among them, those with year-on-year growth include: Japanese and Korean-based Sharp (Sharp) and LGD (LGD), Taiwanese-based AUO (Friendly Optoelectronics) and mainland-based CSOT (China Star Optoelectronics). ).

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The only leading manufacturer in the industry (annual shipments of more than 50 million pieces) is BOE. In the first quarter, it shipped approximately 13.2 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, a month-on-month increase of 11.0%, and a market share of 23.4%, a year-on-year decrease. 1.8 percentage points. If the LGD Guangzhou LCD factory can be successfully acquired this year, the monthly production capacity will increase by at least 180K large panels, and it will continue to lead the global large-size LCD TV panel industry.

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The annual shipments of the neck camp are between 30 and 50 million pieces, and the three panel manufacturers CSOT (China Star Optoelectronics), HKC (Huike) and Innolux (Innolux) have stable rankings.

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Among them, mainland panel manufacturers CSOT and HKC shipped approximately 11.5 million pieces and 9.3 million pieces respectively in the first quarter, with one increase and one decrease year-on-year. CSOT increased by 1.4% and HKC decreased by 8.4%. Their market shares were 20.4% and 16.5% respectively. %.

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Taiwanese panel manufacturer Innolux shipped approximately 7.7 million pieces in the first quarter, down 5.8% year-on-year; its market share was 13.7%, down 1.0 percentage points from the same period last year.

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After the reform, there is a gap in the waist camp, and waist manufacturers have collectively shifted to the long-tail camp (annual shipments are about 15 million pieces). Japanese manufacturer Sharp shipped approximately 4.4 million pieces in the first quarter, a significant increase of 59.6% and 24.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. It ranked first in the industry in terms of year-on-month growth, and its market share reached 7.9%, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year. percentage point.

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Taiwanese manufacturer AUO shipped approximately 3.8 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% and 4.1% respectively, with a market share of 6.7%.

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CHOT (Rainbow Optoelectronics), a mainland manufacturer with only one G8.6 production line, shipped approximately 3.4 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%.

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The Korean manufacturer LGD's Guangzhou factory halved its production capacity at the beginning of last year. Currently, the production volume has recovered significantly. In the first quarter, it shipped approximately 3.1 million pieces, a significant year-on-year increase of 34.6% and 22.8% respectively.

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Against the background that it is difficult to see a significant recovery in the fundamentals of the end market, the current tail-end factories still face huge challenges. Only by actively seeking changes can there be more opportunities: product transformation, niche markets, or narrow customers and new scenarios, or proactively Exit or accept a merger.

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LGD Guangzhou factory is likely to be sold within the year; there are many news about Sharp SDPJ and SDPC discontinuing production and selling. Entering April, Innolux's Nanjing factory that produces small-size modules will be shut down, while the Foshan factory that produces TVs will also be adjusted, and the Shanghai and Ningbo factories will be transformed into automotive products.

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2024Q1 Global LCD TV Panel Factory Shipment Ranking

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Data source: RUNTO, unit: million pieces

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Size pattern: small and medium sizes fell, large sizes increased sharply, 75+ inches increased by nearly 50%

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Taking 55 inches as the dividing line, compared with the first quarter of 2023, shipments of small and medium-sized sizes below 55 inches this year have declined overall year-on-year; while for large sizes 55 inches and above, except for 58-inch shipments due to the strategic adjustment of mainland panel manufacturers, shipments In addition to shrinking shipments, other large sizes have experienced significant increases across the board, with 75+ inches increasing by nearly 50%.

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However, the number one shipment in the first quarter of this year was still 32-inch products, with shipments of approximately 12.9 million pieces, but a year-on-year decline of 11.2%, and a market share of 22.8%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year.

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42/43-inch shipments ranked second in the first quarter, with shipments of approximately 11.5 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%; the market share was 20.4%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The supply of this size is relatively single, mostly produced by the three major panel manufacturers in mainland China, with BOE relatively controlling the panel.

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55-inch and 65-inch ranked third and fourth respectively, shipping approximately 9.4 million and 6.7 million pieces respectively. 55-inch shipments increased significantly by 27.2% year-on-year, ranking second in growth, and its market share increased by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6%, accounting for the largest increase among all sizes. The combined share of the three major panel manufacturers in mainland China reached 69.4%, with CSOT controlling the market and shipping approximately 3.3 million units in Q1, accounting for 35.1%. 65-inch shipments increased by 16.1% year-on-year, and the market share reached 11.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

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About 3.3 million 75-inch units were shipped, a significant year-on-year increase of 26.5%. The combined share of CSOT and BOE is as high as 78.5%.

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Approximately 1.6 million pieces of products over 75 inches were shipped, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, ranking first in growth.

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2024Q1 global LCD TV panel market size structure and changes

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Data source: RUNTO, unit: million pieces

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Forecast: Q2 will continue to grow, and shipments in the first half of the year are expected to increase by 3%

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Looking forward to the market outlook, at the panel price level, according to RUNTO Technology's "LCD TV Panel Price Forecast and Fluctuation Tracking in May 2024", entering the second quarter, under the realistic performance of the terminal market operating smoothly and without major positive stimulation, Price trends diverged as expected. The main sizes controlled by major panel manufacturers continue to rise, and the marginal sizes are beginning to loosen and may become chaotic. It is difficult to have an official fair price. This situation will first appear in May. If the trend is downward in June, it will at least be flat. Ensuring settlement profits in the first half of the year is the focus of panel factory operations.

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At the terminal level, according to RUNTO's "Global TV Brand Market Shipment Quarterly Tracking" data, the global TV market continued the sluggish trend of the previous year in the first quarter, with brand machine shipments falling by about 1% year-on-year. Entering the end of the second quarter, promotions for events such as the European Cup, Olympic Games, and America's Cup held from June to August this year will boost terminal sales, especially large-size TVs. This is expected to have a significant boost, and Q2 global TV market shipments are likely to increase. Turn up.

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In the Chinese TV market, the old-for-new action plan that the industry had been looking forward to had already determined in April that "the central government will not subsidize home appliances, and local governments with conditions are encouraged to implement the action. Under such a general direction, it is expected that the stimulation of color TVs may Limited. In response to the mid-year 618 promotion, RUNTO has updated its forecast, and the retail sales of the Chinese TV market are expected to drop by 4-6%. For details, please pay attention to the upcoming 618 forecast report on the Chinese TV market.

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Looking at the global LCD TV panel market from a broad perspective, it is moving towards the logic of "dilemma reversal". The concentration of entities, clearing of supply, and marketization of operations will change the past industry cycle. China's LCD panel industry can look forward to improvement.

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In terms of scale, RUNTO predicts that in the first half of 2024, the global LCD TV panel market shipments and shipment area will both grow year-on-year, with increases of more than 3% and 10%.