PV 2024, Shuffle Continues, Perc-Cell Price Bounce?

Solar cell companies in 2023 can be described as in deep water, according to industry research, by the end of 2023 two months, the basic full specification of the cell link is in a state of production loss, and most manufacturers have chosen to continue production reduction.

In the first week of the year, solar cell prices gradually stabilized, especially Perc solar cells began to show a small rebound. According to InfoLink data, the trading price of M10 P battery cells remained at ￥0.36-0.37 yuan per watt; The mainstream transaction price of the TOPCon (M10) battery is about ￥0.47 yuan per watt,

The price difference between TOPCon and PERC cells is ￥0.1-0.11 yuan /W,

The HJT battery is about ￥0.65-0.7 yuan per watt.

The solar cell link can be said to be in the center of the storm of P and N type iterations, and under the attack of N cell(TOPCon, HJT, XBC), the pressure of PERC's old production capacity burden has increased. According to relevant agencies, the TOPCon cell market share will increase to about 64% in 2024.

Under the rapid iteration of technology, the ranking of enterprises will also usher in new changes.

From the perspective of the TOP 5 global solar cell shipments in the first half of 2023, Tongwei has a layout in both TOPCon and HJT routes, and it is expected that its TNC solar cell production capacity based on TOPCon technology will reach 66GW in the first half of 2024.

Aiko chose ABC technology and formed a 25GW cell+ module production capacity by the end of 2023.

Jietai Tech's N-type TOPCon cell capacity will reach 44GW by the end of 2023.

Not long ago, the successful IPO inspection of SolarSpace, as of the first half of 2023 had a TOPCon cell production capacity of 8GW.

As the most terminal of the industrial chain, the competition for PV modules is more intense.

In 2023, the module price was nearly halved, and at the end of the year, the bidding price of some collection projects fell below ￥1 yuan /W, which is the cost line of most component companies.

Although there have been calls for the central state-owned enterprises not to regard price as the only standard, from the perspective of the 2023 collection, price still plays a decisive role next.

Relatively speaking, integrated enterprises have higher risk resistance, and the configuration of each link is more flexible, so they have more advantages.

According to statistics, more than 70% of orders in 2023 were taken away by TOP 10 enterprises.

Jinko will most likely return to the TOP 1 position, Trina, Longi, and JA compete for the second place, Chint New Energy, Sunrise, and other companies will most likely launch the fifth defense battle with Canadian, and subsequent companies such as one, Suntech, Tongwei, GCL, DMEGC and so on are also chasing each other.

Emerging enterprises such as Vollsun New Energy, Zhongqing PV, Baoxin Technology, etc., have developed rapidly, and their strength will be further demonstrated with the further landing of production capacity.

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Professional OEM enterprises such as Zibo Jingyou PV will have more opportunities. According to InfoLink's analysis, the prices of orders executed in January 2024 also indicate that the decline in module prices has not stopped.

On January 2, the State Power Investment 2023 Qingyu DC Phase II Huanghe Company 900,000-kilowatt PV 883MW module project announced the winning result, PERC half-cut double-sided module 555Wp module winning price is the lowest ￥0.87 yuan /W.

Under multiple factors such as overcapacity, price changes, and technology iteration, mergers and acquisitions between PV companies often occur. Previously, Qingdian PV officially acquired Hefei West Changxin New Energy.

Industry insiders predict that 70% of PV companies will be reshuffled out in the next few years. Under the great waves, enterprises can only make efforts in many aspects such as production capacity, technology, sales channels, and management to cross the cycle and open up a new situation.