Putting the invisible first- Mitigating ground water decline to deal with the climate crises

Over drafting of ground withdrawal from any aquifer could have long term repercussions. This could be irreversible in context of shared socio-economic pathways- as the needs would go up or remain constant and so would the requirement for water. Already, there is increased pressure on water resources due to the growing population- domestic purposes and intensification of agriculture.?????

Ground water levels started plummeting since 1980’s with the electrification of rural areas and pumps sets started withdrawing water either through electric pumps or diesel sets. Till during this time most of the ground water accessed was of shallow aquifers i.e., through wells. The water level fluctuated from 0 (ground level) to the depth of the deepest well. Beyond that remained saturation zone. As motors pumps came in, wells got deepened and pump sets were replaced by tube wells. Slowly, and gradually over a period of 3-4 decades the water level has receded considerably. In areas, where the present pre-monsoon water level is say, 300 feet, the decline in last three decades would be 250-270 feet (considering the aquifer got infested with pumps and tube wells around 1990). 270 feet decline in 30 years means an average decline of 9 feet per annum. However, this decline may not have been consistent. In last one and half decades, this decline could have been more with intensification of agriculture that happened in large parts of country due to electrification. ?

During last three to four decades some more changes have happened. Concretization has happened and there is definitely Land Use Land Cover Change (LULC) across the country's geography. Deforestation and loss of vegetation has been a universal phenomenon. Surface water bodies have been encroached or transformed into another land use. Along with this change, the precipitation patterns have also change. Number of days of rainfall have reduced and intensity of rainfall has increased. Though the amount of rainfall has remained same. This means that the drizzling pattern of rainfall continuously for 6-7 days or more has changed. All of this has adversely impacted recharge of ground water- percolation of water into the ground.

The IPCC report (AR6) has alarmed of very high probability of compound climate events for example heat waves followed by droughts or low precipitation. Drought followed by droughts. Low precipitation followed by heat waves may cause loss of moisture from the soil and loss of water through evaporation. Severe heat waves may also cause glacier melt leaving less water in the perennial rivers and canals all through the year. In such hypothetical but probable circumstances, the dependence on ground would increases many folds and may lead to sharp decline of water levels even further. This sharp decline could remain irreversible because of the factors mentioned above (change of LULUC etc.) as their seems to no drivers of reversal other than long standing floods. Or this decline may exhaust plausible ground water, once and for all.

Even at today’s groundwater levels (in states facing declining ground water levels), it is important that a strategy for reversing of ground water level is thought of and acted upon accordingly. Assessment of ground water levels based on percentage of extraction to replenishment or ground water development could be deceiving. For example, in above shared hypothetical example, maintaining 70% extraction to replenishment would still be critical.

As ground water deepens, the cost or extraction and its carbon footprint increases. Even the modest Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP2-4.5) with CO2 emissions remaining constant at present levels till the middle of the century, could lead to 3-degree Centigrade global warming over 21st century. The assessment of change of average global temperature in 2019 in comparison pre-industrial era has been 1.09 degree centigrade. With the temperature rise tripling, the requirement for fresh water would increase much further. In addition to this, the frequency, intensity and compounding of climatic events may also increase.

Once ground water dips below our reach who would then be our saviour during climate crises?

For maintaining healthy ground water levels, it is important to counter droughts and long dry spells. We have reached exhausting levels and reversing the trend is important irrespective of our present needs. As we don’t know what instore for the next season. Or since whence would the impact be harsh? If we could not buck the trend now, future will be increasingly difficult to deal with. We have a short window which is closing down soon.

Local solutions is the key since the context in India changes after every few 100 kilometers. ?What may be relevant in one part of the state may not be relevant in another. Even within districts solutions may vary. Everyone has to act and has to act now.

Everyone, everywhere all at once.

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(The views expressed are personal.)

Shraman Jha kumud joshi Nivedita Ghonge Anantika Singh Praveen P. Ranjodh Singh VIKSAT INDIA SRIJAN (Self-Reliant Initiatives through Joint Action)

#HUF #JalAajAurKal #waterconservation #agriculture