Putting The Inventory “Surge” In Perspective; Stock Market “Correction” Coming Soon

Harry Dent?and?Peter Schiff?have been predicting the end of the world every week now for decades.

And, sometime between now and when the sun dies** they will be right, darn it!

**Don’t worry, we have 5 billion years, give or take.

Here’s Harry Dent’s latest interview: Crash Not Over: Markets To ‘Wash Out’ 94% In ‘Most Important Event In History’ | Harry Dent.

If you search for Peter Schiff on YouTube, you will find an equal number of dire predictions.

Both are very rightfully concerned about our overwhelming levels of government borrowing and spending – but both have “cried wolf” about 5,000 too many times and are no longer taken seriously.

Patrick Ceresna Predicts Correction

Yesterday, however, a much more rational observer (Patrick Ceresna) weighed in: Derivatives Expert Gives Dire Stock Market Warning.

TLDW: He says the charts and indicators look very similar to what we saw prior to the dotcom bust in 2000. So yes, he expects another healthy correction, but not a global meltdown like we saw in 2008.

I have been listening to Ceresna for years now on the MacroVoices podcast, and he’s always proven to be a very accurate and rational voice. He got 2023 right, for example, in that he did NOT predict a recession.

Crash Bros: “Housing Inventory Is Surging – And We’re All Going to Die!”

The crash bros are all over the inventory surge and screaming the crash is coming, the crash is coming!

BUT we’re not even back to 2019 levels.

Barry Habib and his MBS Highway team did a beautiful job of putting all of this in perspective yesterday.

Habib shared a few charts to drive his point.

Point #1: Inventory is up, but only up from record low levels.

Point #2: Inventory always rises this time of year.

Point #3: Inventory is not even close to its pre-COVID levels.

Point #4: The inventory surges are concentrated largely in four states. The other 46 states are still BELOW 2019 levels, and the northeast still has 65% to 75% LESS inventory than prior to the pandemic!

Point #5: The four states with higher inventories have seen population gains that more than offset the increase in inventory.

Please see the charts below (borrowed from MBS Highway) that illustrate these points.