Is Putin's War Almost Over?

Years ago I attended "ground school" for a pilot's license. One of the instructors was an Alaskan bush pilot. He told of a mountain pass in Alaska where small planes fly in between the mountains but discover there is no maneuverability to turn around and they lack the altitude to fly over the mountain. The results are tragic and inevitable. The site is still marked with the unrecovered wreckage of small planes that slammed into the walls of the pass.

So goes the war against Ukraine for President Vladimir Putin as the world reacts to his invasion. Bound and determined to demonstrate Russian military prowess and strength, the Russian forces are slogging along, not only facing fierce resistance on the ground, but also the determined response of the world, doing what it can to help the Ukrainian people without turning the situation into a greater tragedy than it already is.

The real question is, How can Putin de-escalate the situation, before he faces not only the world's reaction, but the eventual reaction from his people? Right now the state-controlled Russian media is putting on a good face, but as Lincoln said, “You can fool all of the people some of time; you can fool some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time.”

Can Putin change course before he pilots Russia into the side of the mountain pass? Has Putin crossed the Rubicon? Is there any going back?

To answer these questions, we might turn to history, specifically another invasion that Russia participated in . . . the Korean War.

How the Korean War Started . . . and Ended

The Korean War occurred over 70 years ago. It is often called the Forgotten War. But perhaps there are some parallel lessons that can be drawn from it.

In January 1950, Joseph Stalin, ruler of the Soviet Union, agreed to sign a new treaty with Mao?Zedong, ruler of China.?Sometime after, Stalin gave Kim Il Sung, ruler of North Korea permission to "unify" the Korean Peninsula, with a promise of both weapons and air support for the effort. Estimations were that South Korea would fall quickly, in a matter of a few weeks at most in the course of the "Fatherland Liberation War."?

On June 25, 1950 Kim Il Sung proceeded to do so when his army crossed the 38th parallel, the boundary between North and South Korea. This was the first military action of the Cold War.

On September 15, 1950, troops under command of ?General of the Army Douglas MacArthur?landed at Inchon. The landing was a brilliant success. By early October,?the tides of war had changed and North Korean forces were pushed back. This led to the entry on October 19th of Chinese forces entering the fray.

With about evenly matched forces, the war dragged on. ?Seoul was captured four times before the Northern forces were pushed back.

Lessons Learned from the Korean War

1.????There was talk of use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield. The threat was conveyed to the Chinese and they shrugged it off. It was determined by high command that nuclear weapons offered little tactical advantage over the North.

2.????When it was in Russia's national interest, Stalin did not live up to his side of the bargain, shifting responsibility for prosecution of the war to China, rather than taking on the combined forces of the United Nations. Without promised Russian air cover, equipment and supplies, the Chinese and North Korean armies were weakened.

3.????Faced with a logistical imbalance and stalemate, and increasingly reluctant Chinese support, North Korea declared itself the “winner,” and agreed to a cessation of hostilities.

Analysis

In some ways the invasion of South Korea by the North is like the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. It was proceeded by a Russian-Chinese mutual-support agreement like the long-term pact Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping signed in early February of this year. The invasion by North Korean was estimated to be a smashing success, over in a short time, much like the invasion of Ukraine, in which Russian soldiers were given provisions for only three days or so. The North Korean invasion of the South was plagued by supply and logistical problems. Some Chinese soldiers starved to death and had supply and equipment problems, similar to the Russian soldiers in Ukraine, who are now "living off of the land" due to inadequate supplies and a long and inadequate supply chain.

The major difference between the two invasions might be that President Putin is not looking out for the long-term strategic interests of Russia. Although Putin may be committed to endure any sacrifice in terns of men and material, it doesn't mean he has the full support of those actually in the field or on the home front. Most reports indicate low morale on the Russian side and much higher morale on the Ukrainian side.

In part, this higher state of morale is due to the preparations taken by Ukrainian defense forces before the invasion. For example, as the Russians started to move in, rail connections and some bridges were immediately severed, road signs were obfuscated or painted over with "greetings," and other plans were put into execution.

In part, much like Alexander the Great sleeping in and appearing rested before the Battle Gaugamela, in which he defeated Darius III and his army of a million men, the charismatic leadership of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine, and his leadership team, has not only inspired the Ukrainian people, but much of the world.

President Putin has made only a couple televised appearances. His stone-faced invasion speech was characterized as "paranoid" by some in Europe. A week later, in his meeting with his defense council, Putin seemed out of touch of the current situation, with his comments like "things were going as planned," when a number of reports say this is not so, and his continued characterization of the democratically-elected Ukrainian government a "Nazi" or "fascist" regime.

At a Crossroads of History

In any case, President Putin is at a crossroads. Will he put the national interests of the Russian people, Russian military, and Russian economy first, or will he continue to double down in his destruction of Ukraine that may result in what the historian Stephen Kotkin called, "a mutual maximalist escalation" with the West? This would not be good for Russia, Ukraine, nor the world.

Russia is losing its most important asset, its human capital. The best people are fleeing Russia, if they can, in fear of possible martial law, even if it means they might not ever return. Some are even renouncing their Russian citizenship. This is a tragedy because once the invasion is over, it may take years for Russia to rebuild its economy.

President Putin has been called a student of Stalin. Perhaps now would be a good time for him to review the lessons of history that indicate it is never a good thing to take on the rest of the world at the expense of your own national strategic interests.

Like the bush pilots flying into Alaska's notorious mountain passes, the fate of not only Ukraine, but Russia, is in Putin's hands. ■