Putin’s Not Finished

Even if you are Fiona Hill, Tony Blinken, wore stars on your collar, a political pundit, or a Putin biographer no one can truly predict Vladimir Putin’s desired end game for Ukraine.?What we do know is that in the immortal words of the late great Fred Thompson in the epic thriller “The Hunt for Red October” is “A Russian doesn’t take a dump son, without a plan” (https://youtu.be/YULytWUaKR0). Russia and Vladimir Putin acted on Monday.?He annexed two sovereign-held territories of Ukraine and made it part of Russia. With this action, Putin commenced his first phase of a greater plan to disconnect half of Ukraine. ?Over the almost two decades of official reign as Russia’s modern-day “Tsar”, Putin has often hinted at his true intentions. Yesterday, was the first step in his greater plan to annex half of Ukraine and construct a new “Iron Curtain”.

What just happened?

Yesterday, Putin signed two decrees essentially annexing two parts of Eastern Ukraine. The decrees signed by Putin conveyed Putin’s/Russia’s official recognition over two breakaway territories in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine -- the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic (DPR and LPR). Putin’s illicit decrees recognized the DP and LPR as independent states and have again illegally inserted Russian “Peacekeepers” to guarantee their safety. Putin attempted to validate his decree yesterday in a fiery speech to the Russian people by stating, "Ukraine has never had traditions of its statehood," and called Ukraine "ancient Russian lands. “Putin has described Russians and Ukrainians as one people, writing in an essay shared on the Kremlin’s website in July that “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.” Putin's hubris and historical cherry-picking of Russo - Ukrainian relations was on mass display yesterday.

Why Now?

At his core, Putin is a nationalist and nationalists are historically dangerous.?He rose to power by reestablishing Russian stature on the world stage.?Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia was at best a regional authority economically and militarily albeit with nuclear weapons.?This was a blow to the Russian psyche.?Insert Vladimir Putin.?Putin helped reestablish Russian pride and corralled the Oligarchs that were stealing from the Russian people.?Putin turns 70 years old this October. He is seeing his time as the modern-day Russian Tsar coming toward an end and he feels it’s time to see his goals of another USSR to completion.?He has successfully united its marionette, Belarus into its umbrella, annexed Crimea, and now the DPR and LPR illegally without discharging a shot. Now it’s time for the greater Ukrainian western phase.

Russia has done this before outside of Ukraine

In the aftermath of Russia’s shock incursion into the country of Georgia in 2008, Russia signed "alliance and integration" agreements with Abkhazia in November 2014 and South Ossetia in March 2015. Both had been sovereign territory of Georgia before the Russian invasion. Georgian officials have strenuously condemned the deepening of the occupied territories' economic and military dependence on Russia, calling it "creeping annexation".

What’s Next?

So, is the end of Putin’s intrusion into Ukraine? The simple answer is no. The annexing of the LPR and DPR are only the start. As Winston Churchill once beautifully stated, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” Putin again emboldened by bullying the rest of the world by annexing the DPR and LPR without a shot fired will continue by partitioning the ethnic Russian and Ukrainian people of Eastern Ukraine (Ukrainian ethnic line in blue and Russian in red below).??

Unlike the annexing of the DPR and LPR, any further incursion will incur a kinetic conflict between the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces. ?Depending on Putin’s geographical end goals, this will begin to be bloody. Thousands of Soldiers on each side military will die and as in all wars, civilians will die indiscriminately. Putin will ultimately accomplish whatever he chooses in Ukraine without military action from the West/NATO. Sanctions will begin to be rolled out, but he has weathered them before and will again be even more emboldened by his land grab successes. The concern does he now go after Estonia (24% Russian speaking), Latvia (25% Russian speaking) Moldova, or Poland? Does Serbia, fall in line with Belarus and join the "Iron Curtain" of countries? No one knows.