Putin's Classic Decisional Errors

As a professional peacemaker and graduate professor of decision-making under conflict and stress, I have been considering Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. I think there are lessons that every leader can take away from this decision-making sequence.?

First, consider the psychological factors that may have prevented Putin from seeing the effects of his decision.?

He thinks he is smarter and more talented than he is (the Lake Wobegon Effect).

He thinks he is more likely to prevail than objective reality would indicate (over-confidence bias and ignoring base rates).?

He believes he can control future events by force of will (illusion of control bias).?

He believes he will prevail because he is right (belief in a just world).?

He believes he has gone over all of the relevant facts objectively and carefully and that they support his view of history (confirmation bias, self-serving bias, and availability heuristic).?

Even if the chances of succeeding and the range of likely outcomes have been explained to him, he can’t evaluate any of them properly because he does not understand probability theory.?

He’s a sucker for false historical narratives to the point where they can overcome elementary logic (the conjunction fallacy).?

Finally, he is reluctant to do anything to interfere with the way the gods have ordered the universe (status quo bias and regret aversion).?

Second, consider his imposed self-isolation for fear of covid. He has few advisors, none of whom are willing to tell him he is wrong. He probably suffers from what Irving Janis has named group-think. With no independent voices of caution, he has no way of reality-testing his decisions.?

Finally, he has failed to ask and answer the most fundamental question of all critical decisions: “What if I am wrong?”?

In any important decision, either political or business, I teach my students to be skeptical of their beliefs. Often there is no easy answer in a VUCAR (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous, and risky) world. The only way to avoid making disastrous decisions is to pay close attention to the decision-making process.?

Imagine what Putin’s decision might have been had he followed these rules:?

1.?????Thoroughly examine a wide range of alternatives.

2.?????Survey the full range of objectives and values implied by the choices.

3.?????Understand and articulate the underlying emotions in the decision

4.?????Weigh the costs and risks of both good and negative consequences.

5.?????Engage in a rigorous search for new information.

6.?????Correctly assess new information, especially when it contradicts a preferred course of action.

7.?????Re-examine the positive and negative consequences of all known alternatives.

8.?????Explore the emotions that arise under each alternative

9.?????Engage in thorough planning, including contingency plans and failure points.

10.?Assess potential cognitive biases.

11.?Answer the question “What if I am wrong?”?

I doubt the decision to invade would have been made. In my opinion, this is the Ukrainian lesson for 21st century leaders.