Putin Plays for Time as Russian Forces Fall Back in Ukraine
WSJ: Vladimir Putin Plays for Time as Russian Forces Fall Back in Ukraine
Kremlin hopes winter will provide a chance to reinforce and regroup
Russia’s?Vladimir Putin ?is aggressively trying to prevent further losses in Ukraine by?bombarding critical infrastructure ?and to avert disquiet at home by tightening social controls.
The goal: hold on until the winter can give him enough pause to reboot his?bogged-down invasion .
Mr. Putin’s war effort has generated pressure that presents the biggest threat to his 23-year rule in Russia. They include the bite of?Western sanctions , shrinking government revenue,?an exhausted military ?and a public irked by a widening conflict in Ukraine in which few wanted to fight.
Barring a collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine that military experts call unlikely, Mr. Putin for now appears secure in power. Nevertheless, he needs to keep the military campaign from backsliding so he can avoid the kind of major defeat that could cause his Kremlin elite to lose confidence in his rule and ignite power struggles.
Winter could slow Kyiv’s offensive in southern Ukraine, which now threatens to deal Moscow a new major defeat as it closes in on the Russian-occupied?regional capital of Kherson . Moscow hopes winter will also bring new strains to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as the?cutoff of Russian gas ?earlier this year drives up energy prices and?threatens to chill homes ?in Europe.
“In time, they are hoping these pressures might lead the Europeans to crack and start pushing Ukraine to make some kind of deal” with Russia, said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Russian military planners have for centuries looked upon winter as an ally that helped vanquish invaders from Napoleon to the Nazis. Whether this winter could provide a respite for Mr. Putin is an open question, according to military experts.
In Europe, energy suppliers appear to have patched together networks and amassed?enough gas ?to make up for the shortfalls caused by Russia’s cutoff.
Meanwhile, it can’t be determined whether Ukrainian troops might suffer more than Russian forces on a battlefield where each side is huddled in bunkers and engaged in artillery duels. NATO has issued a call to alliance members to supply Kyiv with?winter gear ?to help Ukraine keep fighting through the cold season.
The Kremlin is hoping that its own defenses in Ukraine will strengthen in the coming weeks with the?influx of 300,000 reservists , whose mobilization Mr. Putin ordered last month. And, egged on by Kremlin-controlled television that says Mr. Putin has pursued the war too gently, he has stepped up missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s?civilian infrastructure , hoping it will disrupt Ukraine’s offensive.
“The idea is to stabilize things as quickly as possible so they can get to winter, and maybe in the spring things will look differently,” said Mr. Graham.
Military experts said they believe the Kremlin is playing a longer game. Moscow is likely using its mobilization to protract the war beyond next year, hoping the West will tire of Russia’s campaign of economic war, destabilization and escalation threats in Ukraine, and force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London said in a recent report.
As the conflict drags on, Russia will be looking for advantages, Mr. Graham said. Regarding NATO, Mr. Graham said the Kremlin will be searching for signs of unrest, especially in Germany and France, where?strikes and demonstrations ?have broken out in response to?decades-high inflation .
Standing in line for hot food distributed by volunteers in Kyiv, Ukraine. ′PHOTO:?SERGEY DOLZHENKO/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK
The Kremlin’s hopes for the coming winter are clear in the state-controlled media, he said, which gives celebratory coverage to demonstrations everywhere in Europe, and the dread there of a winter without Russian fuel supplies.
Russia’s state-run channels have been trumpeting the country as an island of stability, citing its energy independence and Mr. Putin’s success in working with OPEC+. Earlier this month it agreed to its?deepest cuts in oil production ?since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, adding to global inflationary concern in the West. The production cuts come in an already-tight market despite pressure from the U.S. to raise production.
Pro-Kremlin pundits inside Russia have begun to blame the calamity in Ukraine on initial reluctance by the Kremlin to declare a mobilization of troops. Mr. Putin’s mobilization order last month to call up 300,000 reservists proved unpopular. There were?flashes of unrest ?in Russia’s regions and?attacks on recruiting stations ?around the country.
Moscow has sought to control public opinion inside the country with a carrot and stick approach. Last week Mr. Putin implemented a range of?tighter security measures ?across the country that will help him deal with the fallout from the mobilization.
The Kremlin has also announced a raft of?compensation packages ?of money and goods for the mobilized men. And in the midst of fears that Russia could call up even more troops, top officials are issuing reassurances that the mobilization is nearly complete, and that life will get back to normal. Answering reporters’ questions in Kazakhstan earlier in October, Mr. Putin said that 222,000 people had been mobilized and that the rest would be called up by the end of the month. He added that there would be no more mobilization in the foreseeable future.
A demonstrator holding a sign saying, ‘Stop the gas-supply lie,’ during a protest in Germany this month. - PHOTO:?THOMAS SCHULZ / DPA / ZUMA PRESS
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin commentator at the Institute of Political Studies in Moscow, said the Russian leadership doesn’t fear any serious social unrest as a result of setbacks in Ukraine, but it is taking some pre-emptive measures. Mr. Markov, a former parliamentarian of Mr. Putin’s United Russia party, said the Kremlin likely doesn’t believe that Europe faces a serious energy crisis this winter, but is ordering broadcasts to boost the morale of Russians.
“People in the Kremlin do not believe it themselves,” he said. “But because Russians have a lot of problems, it is good to show them that Russians are not the only ones.”
Mr. Markov said that the Kremlin likewise doesn’t believe that the West or Ukraine wants negotiations with Russia, but that Mr. Putin is saying that he is ready so he appears reasonable to some of its other foreign partners, such as China and Arab states.
Mr. Putin has recently praised Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as possible brokers in talks, and even suggested that he might meet President Biden on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia, next month—although he added, “I don’t see the need, to be honest.”
Mr. Markov said that Mr. Putin’s?order for martial law ?in some Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine is a sign that he intends to put the entire country and its economy on a wartime footing for a conflict that will drag on for years. He said that the Kremlin sees that the bite of Western sanctions will grow worse over time and that Moscow will retool its industry toward different trading partners.
“Putin understands that now negotiations are impossible because Western nations believe that the Ukrainian army is winning,” Mr. Markov said.
While the Russian economy took an immediate hit from Western sanctions after the invasion began in February, Moscow got help from a jump in energy prices. The ruble, which plunged at the start of the war, rose sharply against the dollar and inflation moderated.
But economists forecast shrinkage and moribund growth in Russia for years to come. In a report issued earlier this month, the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies expected gross domestic product to fall by 4% this year and next with no rapid recovery afterward.
Foreign and Russian officials expect a degradation of the country’s economic potential as a result of the loss of export markets, the exodus of Western companies and a brain drain of highly qualified workers.
The lack of items ranging from computer chips to oil-drilling equipment is hobbling industries and has led to the delay of major energy projects.
“Russia has irreparably burned its bridges with important Western economic actors, and there is no path of return to the old status quo,” the institute said in its report. Rerouting its trade toward China “replenishes a small fraction of the losses from shattered relations with the West.”
“Russians face a long and painful adjustment to lower living standards,” the report said.
Relatives saying goodbye in Russia’s Stavropol region to a man called up in the partial mobilization. - PHOTO:?IVAN VYSOCHINSKY / TASS / ZUMA PRESS
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Xi cements control over China, but huge challenges await in third term
Chinese leader Xi Jinping (far left) walks with members of the Chinese Communist Party's new Politburo Standing Committee, (from left to right) Li Qiang, Li Xi, Zhao Leji, Ding Xuexiang, Wang Huning and Cai Qi, as they meet the media at Beijing's Great Hall of the People on Sunday. | AFP-JIJI
BEIJING –?Xi Jinping has secured near total control over China’s Communist Party, but experts warn his unchecked power is a huge risk, with a debt-ridden economy and a U.S. rivalry also presenting major challenges.
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His?reappointment as party leader ?is a watershed moment in China’s modern history, tilting decisively back toward one-man rule after decades of power-sharing among the elite.
Xi was again confirmed as party general-secretary and military chief on Sunday at the conclusion of a twice-a-decade party congress in Beijing, sealing a third term at the helm of the world’s second-largest economy.
Party faithful also approved a sweeping reshuffle that stocked the top ruling body —?the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee ?— with?Xi’s allies .
Current Shanghai Party boss Li Qiang — who oversaw a grueling two-month COVID-19 lockdown in the financial capital this year — was named as No. 2 in the Standing Committee. This means he is likely to take over as premier from Li Keqiang, a former Xi rival who will retire next year.
The outcome capped 10 years in which Xi has accrued more power than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, and broke with the example set by his two predecessors who smoothly handed their authority to those next in line.
“The result was a resounding victory for Xi, more decisive than many experienced observers had forecast,” said Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute think tank in Sydney. “All of his rivals, potential and real, have been forced out of the Politburo Standing Committee and Xi loyalists took their place. The new Politburo is an emphatic statement of Xi’s dominance over the party.”
Chinese leader Xi Jinping waves during the introduction of members of the Chinese Communist Party’s new Politburo Standing Committee, the nation’s top decision-making body, at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Sunday. | AFP-JIJI
It has also sparked warnings that Xi’s increasingly unchecked power may trigger a succession crisis when his rule finally comes to an end.
“(Xi’s) reappointment today is the result of his concentration of extreme individual power,” said a senior Chinese political scholar who requested anonymity to avoid potential repercussions from the authorities.
The move was “catastrophically negative for the Chinese state,” harming the party’s resilience and heralding “decline and stagnation,” the scholar said, adding that it was “inevitable” that Xi would now seek to rule for life.
It is?the economy that is likely to command Xi’s immediate focus ?as he embarks on his history-making third term.
In recent years, he has thrown his weight behind the development of a more consumption-driven economy — a policy known as “dual circulation” — and has sought to address China’s yawning wealth gap under the banner of “common prosperity.”
However, his signature?“zero-COVID” strategy, ?with its snap lockdowns, mass testing and curbs on movement, has pummeled consumer sentiment and chipped away at growth.
“Consumption is unlikely to recover to pre-Covid level with the current scale of COVID control,” said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China.
She said the policy has “added to the woes” in the property sector, where a debt crisis has sparked developer defaults and sown fears of a looming financial crunch for local governments.
“The government will have to choose a new model to develop the housing sector while keeping the deleveraging requirement in place,” Wang said.
People watch a live broadcast of Chinese leader Xi Jinping speaking during the introduction of the Communist Party of China’s Politburo Standing Committee, in Huaibei, in China’s eastern Anhui province, on Sunday. | AFP-JIJI
China last week delayed the release of its third-quarter economic growth figures, amid expectations that the country was on course for its weakest performance since the early days of the pandemic in 2020.
The country eked out just 0.4% growth in the second quarter, and analysts widely expect it to miss its annual growth target of 5.5% by a wide margin.
More problems on Xi’s horizons include China’s relations with the West, which have cratered as Beijing has forcefully quelled huge pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and taken an?aggressive stance on Taiwan .
Xi himself has repeatedly said global geopolitics is “undergoing changes unseen in a century”, and peppered his opening address to the Congress with references to “security.”
“I think the congress has drawn a line between the past and the future in profound ways, both for Chinese domestic politics and the way in which its influence spills out into the rest of the world,” said the Lowy Institute’s McGregor.
Xi also reiterated that?China would never renounce the option of using force to impose its rule on Taiwan , a thriving island democracy that Beijing views as part of its own territory and the U.S. has vowed to help defend itself.
His Communist Party even enshrined its opposition to Taiwanese independence in its constitution, according to a resolution published Saturday.
Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said Xi “again and again integrates unification across the (Taiwan) Strait into his cause for Chinese national greatness.”
The focus on national security in the military, economic and ideological realms “reflects the fact, as most observers in the world judge, that there is no indication of any major and lasting mitigation of relations with U.S. and its maritime allies … in the predictable future,” he said.
Visitors stand in front of a giant screen displaying a map of locations around Taiwan where the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducted military exercises in August, at an exhibition titled “Forging Ahead in the New Era” during a media tour on Oct. 12, ahead of a Communist Party congress in Beijing. | REUTERS
The congress could also ameliorate?fears in Tokyo of an emergency erupting over Taiwan ?— at least for the time being.
“Xi had to keep talking about the goal of Taiwan’s unification in order to strengthen his own power, and now that a new regime with a solid foothold has been established, the possibility that he will attempt to take Taiwan by force has probably receded,” said Takashi Kawakami, a professor at Takushoku University in Tokyo.
“I assume he will gradually proceed with Taiwan’s unification not with military force but by strengthening hybrid warfare,” Kawakami said.
“The same is true for?Japan’s Senkaku Islands . … Japan, as China’s neighboring country, will be required to conduct its own diplomacy toward China,” he added, referencing the Japanese-controlled Senkakus, which are also claimed by Beijing, where they are known as the Diaoyus.
Still, while Xi’s reappointment is unlikely to raise the risk of war over Taiwan, “it could be one step in a chain of events that ultimately raises the risk of armed conflict,” said Shanghai-based political risk analyst Dan Macklin.
Beijing might step up plans for reunification if slower economic growth through the mid-2020s leads the party to expand upon other sources of legitimacy, he said.
But Xi’s advancing age combined with a top leadership stacked with personal allies could “raise?the risk of miscalculation ” — and “give Xi an extreme level of control and greater capacity to take bold moves on Taiwan,” Macklin said.
Jeffrey Wasserstrom, a leading scholar of modern Chinese history at the University of California, Irvine, said Xi’s unassailable position at the top of the party raised concerns about the “willingness of people to talk about things that diverge from the official line.”
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