Is Putin Leading Russia down the Road to Perdition?

It is now day 22 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian armed forces fighting in Ukraine are fearful. Can anyone blame them? From the start they have experienced failures in equipment, supplies, and most importantly, leadership.

Russian ground forces were lied to. From admissions made after capture, a picture emerges that Russian troops were not told of their mission and its inherent dangers until it was well underway.

Russian ground forces continue to have supply issues. Because of equipment losses and an extended logistical chain, progress on the ground has been slowed. The term "tooth-to-tail" (T3R) is used to describe the ratio of fighters to non-fighting support troops.?Because the Russian army is mechanized, it needs not only equipment operators as truck and tank drivers, but mechanics, and logisticians,?as well as ample spare parts, food, fuel and munition resupply. The deeper the Russian army trudges into Ukraine, the more support people are needed. If 200,000 Russian troops are in Ukraine, perhaps 75% would need to be in a supporting role. This likely not the case, hence the slow progress and multiple reports of looting and scavenging for food by the Russian army. Putin has also asked China for military help, meaning his army possibly lacks reserves of certain things he needs to prosecute the war.

While publicly reassuring the Russian people again, and again, that everything is "going according to plan," Putin has reportedly fired eight generals, pinning the lack of progress on them. After three weeks, the main body of one group of Russian ground forces are 15-20 kilometers (9-12 miles) northwest of Kyiv and another group is approaching from about 20-30 kilometers (12-19 miles) east of the city, according to AP.

What Can Ukrainian Forces Still Do?

There has been a number of recently released videos showing successful attacks on Russian armored columns or individual pieces of equipment. The danger here is that some of this information can also be also used by the Russians to improve their tactics.

According to current military doctrine, the Ukrainian army can further slow down the Russian advance by conducting a series of night raids, further keeping the advancing army on edge and spreading out their defenses, in turn weakening them.

War is about feints?and setting traps. Each side, however, quickly learns how the other responds, so new tactics need to be continually introduced.

In fighting it is bad to repeat a formula, and to repeat it a third time is worse. When an effort fails it may be followed with a second attempt. If that fails, a drastically changed formula must be adopted. If this fails, one must resort to another completely different formula.—Musashi Miyamoto, quoted by Capt. Tameichi Hara?

In short, both defensive and offense tactics are called for, especially when the home army has the advantage of both terrain and weather on its side. The weather in Kyiv, for example, is much like the current weather in Michigan, meaning in the spring, heavy vehicles can have a difficult time maneuvering off of the road, depending on the local terrain. This, in turn, can provide a certain advantage to the home army.

There is still some time, albeit measured in days perhaps before Kyiv is surrounded, for the home army to take additional offensive measures.

Is Putin Leading Russia down the Road to Perdition?

On Wednesday, March 16th, Putin lashed out those who he called a "fifth column of traitors and scum— those who earn their money here, but live over there."

Who are some of these so-called "traitors?"

A number of them could be the Russian oligarchs who live abroad, but have renounced Putin and his war in Ukraine. For example, the oligarch Leonid Nevzlin renounces his Russian citizenship because of the war.

"Russian citizenship in itself has turned into a mark moral turpitude that I no longer want to carry … I’m against the war. I’m against the occupation. I’m against the destruction of the Ukrainian people."—Leonid Nevzlin

Another is Mikhail Fridman, founder of Russia’s largest private bank Alfa Bank, who said, “I do not make political statements. I am a businessman with responsibilities to my many thousands of employees in Russia and Ukraine. I am convinced however that war can never be the answer. This crisis will cost lives and damage two nations who have been brothers for hundreds of years.”

So far Putin has blamed his intelligence officers, his generals, and anyone else in the world who has opposed him, for his troubles in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions against Russia. He has made it a high crime in Russia to even call his war on Ukraine a war, or question its purpose. He has ignored all the daily reports of unarmed civilians being shot and killed by the Russian army, hospitals and residential areas getting shelled and bombed, and cities becoming completely leveled.

Science calls the condition of a person who is out of touch with reality as undergoing a psychosis, and a person who sees everyone around them as a threat as being paranoid.

Maybe it sprung from isolation during the Covid pandemic. Maybe it was from having too much power for too long. Maybe it doesn't matter what it is called or where it came from.

What does matter is that Putin has pitted Russia against the world and is taking Russia down the road to perdition. ■