Putin and his “Correlation of Forces”, Between Desires and Fears

Putin and his “Correlation of Forces”, Between Desires and Fears

Paul M. Joyal??????????????????????2-11-2022

Putin’s Dilemma

Putin finds himself in an untenable position. Drive by his ambitions to recapture the “Great Russian” heritage and a vision of a greater united “Russian peoples empire”, he has brandished his military power and subversive influence with abandon, but now fears appear to be surfacing. Has Putin miscalculated the determination of the Ukrainian people to resist at all costs and the ability of the Biden administration to project the calm strength that has steeled the NATO Alliance?

Putin has never paid much attention to domestic affairs and growing economic opportunity for his people. Voices are emerging with greater frequency referring the “systemic crisis” in Russia and specifically Putin’s failure to manage Russia internally.??Critics like Col. General Ivashov even add “corrupt” and “incompetent” to Putin’s lack of stewardship. More diverse forces are emerging that could challenge his legitimacy at home before the 2024 election. A frightening prospect for a man who needs eternal power to protect himself from accountability.

In many ways it comes down to his major Ukraine gamble. Can he obtain concessions without all-out war? Can he risk a massive Russian invasion that some Russians are referring to as Putin’s Vietnam? Today, Putin’s correlations of forces are increasingly looking much more costly than he originally calculated. Has Putin come to the end of his viability?

This recalls the great Russian born English wartime correspondent Alexander Werth, and his profoundly disturbing classic?Russia at War?published in 1964. It may be the greatest book ever written on the Russian perspective of World War II. Werth had intended to write a companion volume?Russia at Peace. But it never was meant to be because peace was never realized for the Russian people. Today, peace is farther away than ever.

Trouble at Home

During the Soviet period, domestic considerations were not part of the governing equation. The Soviets did acknowledge independent forces, which they labeled “wandering values,” because they were not linked to a predetermined or steadfast place in the international class struggle, and thus could introduce uncertainty in any calculation of the correlation of forces.

But in 2022, Putin is in trouble at home.?

He needs a massive foreign affairs victory to justify and secure his 2024 reelection bid.??Russia is in steep decline. Last year, Russia experienced its largest population decline since the end of the Soviet Union twenty years earlier. Covid deaths exceeded one million in 2021, a death rate is 4.5 times higher than in the pandemic’s first year. There are many contributing factors to this surge but the combination of a destroyed health care system under Putin’s “optimization” health care reform, low vaccine acceptance by the population (50%) and no restriction on travel, have produced a deadly combination.?Rosstat, the Russian government statistics agency, announced in February that more than 215,000 Russians died of all causes in December 2021, 42 percent more than in December 2019, before the outbreak of the coronavirus.??

The Forbidden Opinion?telegram channel reports Russian expert Paul Goble in “Windows on Eurasia.” “The Putin regime doesn’t want to take responsibility for what is happening.” Instead, it blames the virus, “anti-vaxxers,” and “foreign enemies.” It won’t blame the leaders and officials who have destroyed the healthcare system. The logic of Russian officials is “not to solve a problem but to react to it,” to announce measures rather than be concerned about what these measures will do. As a result, the healthcare system has been so decimated that “mortality in Russia will continue to remain at a phenomenally high level” regardless of what else the regime does.”?The Forbidden Opinion?concludes, as a result “…more Russians will die; and the Kremlin will be responsible.?Russia is dying before his eyes and Putin has no answer to this fatal predicament.”

This accelerated death rate highlights the larger trend of a steady decline in the population as I reported on January 2, 2001, in my?Daily Report on Russia. I warned that dramatic demographic trends threatened the viability of the Russian state itself. The rate of population decline (750,000 per annum) was unprecedented for an industrialized nation not at war! In 2001, Russian draftees were rejected for health reasons in one out of three cases. This compares to one in twenty in 1985 in the Soviet Union. Journalist and historian Aleksandr Zhelenin concluded in an article last October, “The current demographic catastrophe in Russia is the result of a whole range of factors,” including the pandemic, the destruction of the health care system, high inflation, and declining standards of living. But Putin and his regime are celebrating the fact that the Russian economy is supposedly booming.

“Putin fatigue” within the population is real, now approaching the level of the late Brezhnev period, and even old – and laconic – Brezhnev-era jokes are being revived.?

Moscow scholar Aleksandr Tsipko observed that the political elite of Russia refuses to recognize that fact “Russians are tired of empire” and they refuse to give up the myth of the supposed attachment of the Russian people to Great Power ideas and territorial expansion, regardless of what such policies cost the population. Last year, Russian polls for the first time indicated that more Russians seek prosperity rather than Great Power status. Transparency International?reports that the monthly median income of Russian officials – 82,000 rubles ($1,150 USD is three times higher than that of all other Russians – 27,000 rubles ($380 USD) and that does not include what these officials steal while in government.

Kremlinologist Liliya Shevtsova explains that in “attempting to maintain its global role with threats to undermine the status quo at any time and in any place on the globe,” Putin has adopted an approach designed to “compensate for its inability to secure the rebirth of Russia on the basis of internal change.” This is an entirely different strategy than the ones being employed by the United States and China and reflects Russian weakness rather than strength. But one thing is clear: Russia has given up trying to form an attractive model for emulation and alliances. It has shown itself “ready to break windows,” or maybe even countries.

The Correlation of Forces

The Correlation of Forces was a Soviet conception of the balance of power, significantly different than the Western approach. It was based on Marxist-Leninist philosophy that interpreted the world within it laws of history, believing history inevitably evolves toward socialism. A favorable correction encourages actions seeking further advantage for further progress. The theory utilized multiple correlations: first on the global scale; second on the regional setting, especially in Europe and then within the Warsaw Pact and vis-à-vis China.

It is very different from how Vladimir Putin would use the concept today but still important to understand. The Soviet system viewed the world as a global international confrontation between competing political and socio-economic systems each with its own policies and doctrines. The Correlation of Forces offered a benchmark assessment how the Soviet Union stood vis-à-vis the United States and its allies.

With his own 2024 election on his mind, and his failure to bring an even modicum of success to the Russian people, Putin needs a dramatic victory to quell the “Putin-fatigue” that has beset his homeland. Russia is a miserable place to live for most. Pandemic deaths and sickness, lack of government response to combat the pandemic, failing vaccines, inflation, lack of economic opportunity, a destroyed health system, and more. The need for a dramatic success to justify another term was the impetus for an information plan to pave the way for future military options. Part of that plan included multiple military mobilizations and deployments, Black Sea exercises, and an aggressive anti-Ukraine, anti-NATO, anti-America propaganda line.?

Putin needs to control the escalation ladder.

Assessing the Situation

After the first year of the Joe Biden presidency, Putin considered his options, the Russian version of “net assessment.” America is deeply divided. The incompetent, do it alone withdrawal from Afghanistan re-enforced European concerns that Donald Trump’s “American First” approach was still alive.??Putin must have relished the fact that the Euro-Atlantic divide President Biden promised to bridge was still alive and well. The pandemic appeared to reinforce American distrust in the government and enhance the cultural divide within society. Racial tensions continued and extremism proliferated. Many described the situation in American in terms of pre-insurgency. Biden appears weak as Putin’s decision time is approaching. The American establishment and society are likely not as weak and broken as his advisors promote, but Putin, surrounded by sycophants and, lacking a competitive independent analytic intelligence system, is fed only what reinforces his positions.??

Putin surely reveled in American political polarization in the aftermath of the Trump presidency and the cooptation of the once-principled Republican Party. As ineffective government pandemic messaging resurrected itself and infections spread, many Americans became increasingly vocal critics of mask and vaccination mandates. It all presented a picture to Putin that weakness, not strength, was the watchword with large swaths of Americans. Putin viewed President Biden thru the eyes of man obsessed with personal power and misjudged him as weak, devoid of principles, and malleable under intimidation.??

There were other information points that led Putin to consider the time had come to carve up Ukraine. His information forces had prepared the ground well. First, they posited that NATO was a threat – surrounding Russia and preparing to invade. Second, that Russia had been promised no NATO expansion would occur and was betrayed by America.??And finally, Russian victimhood message, deeply ingrained in the Russian psyche was repeated over and over, internally, and externally. “Russia is not respected.” It made a compelling set of circumstances for Putin.?

The Russian Military Revival

Militarily, Russia has been tuning up its military for large scale mobilization and combat since the 2008 invasion of Georgia. The dismal performance of the Russian force of 45,000 set Russia on a massive, sustained rebuilding path. Improvements in military readiness, communications, command and control, and the quality of its equipment haves been extensive.??Deployments in Syria, the Crimea seizure, and the fighting in the Donbas has seasoned approximately 90 percent of the Russian military with real world combat experience, albeit not against a serious adversary.?

Russia new training and doctrine match overwhelming military force with better communications, extensive electronic warfare, and a premium on rapid maneuver operations on full display during extensive exercises on land, sea, and air – including the ZAPAD national mobilizations across the entire Russian territory. The results have been a renewed level of confidence and a more lethal capability that challenged NATO’s and mimicked the net-centric warfare of the Americans.

This past year, the Russian Navy and Marines conducted large exercises in the Black Sea area closing off extensive sections for live fire operations.??In late 2021, the Russian Army deployed an intimidating force of 100,000+ troops along the Ukraine-Russia border, including Belarus.??These exercises and previous massing of troops along the Ukrainian border, test Western resolve and gage responses using military deployments as part of an information warfare plan, analyzing, and testing Ukrainian military responses. It uses threats very effectively in subjecting its enemies to unrelenting psychological warfare to degrade their will to fight.?

The Russian way of war employs a whole of government approach to influence operations, including deception, disinformation, psychological operations, and subversion.??Russian military uses?maskirovka?– military deception – on the opposing military observers and analysts, as well as in Russia itself and, importantly, extending to the Western audience and alliance structures.

With all this preparation, Putin dropped the diplomatic and propaganda hammer after the tentative diplomatic overtures.?

A series of outlandish and unreasonable demands were presented the US and NATO, including reference to non-existent military threats and grievances, and the right of Russia to dictate who can or not become a member of NATO. In short Russia demanded its own sphere of influence. Vladimir Putin?had tested this notion in his June 2021?Die Zeit?article demanding to have sanctions on Russia lifted, aiming for NATO recognition of a?de factopost-Soviet space. It went nowhere.?

Why Now?

Putin is frustrated. His GRU and later FSB-lead hybrid campaign in the Donbas has been afailure. The failure to reverse the Crimea sanctions have cost Russia approximately 3% of GNP since 2015 and forced additional expenditures to subsidize his adventurism. His considerable leverage with corrupt fifth columns and heavy subversion, including a significant assassination program, has failed to cripple Ukraine internally. In fact, his machinations have united the country as only Putin could do. Information warfare, corruption, and subversion in and toward Western countries, while causing damaging internal domestic disturbances and erosion of social cohesion and unity, have not translated into widespread policy changes benefiting the Kremlin.??

There is one important exception, Germany and Nord Stream 2.??Former German Chancellor Schroder has just been nominated to the Gasprom Board of directors. How transparently unseemly. However, even that appears to be at risk if Russia launches a full-scale invasion. For that reason, Putin sought China as his savior.??It appears China is ready to provide some degree of lifeline by buying Russian gas. China will no doubt extract a favorable price. His appearance at the Olympics appeared more like a beggar than a victor and equal as his 3-day visit and delegation was scaled back to 1 day.

It is important to understand Putin’s obsession with Ukraine, grounded in his realization that Russian must expand to survive and cannot be an empire again without it. Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski explained this long ago. Match this reality with the mafia-like instincts of Putin and his government to threaten. The ethos of a criminal organization is all about respect, loyalty, and submission. Putin craves respect, honor, and status and sees the world in those terms. His leadership has inculcated an intimidation culture. Traitors are executed in the most horrible way and the message is simple: “Cross me and we will get you. You will experience a public and horrendous death.” That method is for the benefit of their families of supporter.

Putin’s Russia lives in its own cognitive universe and is driven to destroy any system that threatens his continued rule. To this end, he has set out to destroy the opposition and its leaders and has cracked down on all forms of protest. This is short sighted, driven by fear and creates an unintended powder keg within Russia. Kremlinologist Shevtsova explains:??The silence that Vladimir Putin is imposing on Russia has the potential to be “more dangerous than any turbulence” because it means that there won’t be any public discussion of the ways in which steps intended to stabilize the situation may in fact have the opposite effect.”?

The Current Standoff

But Putin has been forced to recalculate the Correlation of Forces.??As the clock is ticking on the Russian military’s growing numbers on the Ukraine border, the intimidation tactics and diplomatic demands have become more desperate. They have not produced the concessions he expected.?

The Biden administration at times has presented a confused narrative. With the President apparently thinking out loud at a press conference he produced a confused and undisciplined public narrative. Biden has always gotten in trouble with off-the-cuff remarks, but that should not be confused with his principles that are surfacing now. Behind closed-door conversations with America’s allies Biden has been so far strong and effective. Putin’s actions and words have fused a united NATO response.??Sweden and Finland object vigorously to any demand Russia has advanced they cannot ever join NATO. Putin’s bellicose rhetoric and veiled threats and comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis have all combined to deliver a new reality…. lethal aid delivered on the ground in Ukraine.??

Putin and his “risk pieces” operate with surprise. Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014 the world was caught by surprise. The brilliance of the Biden administration has been profound. The decision to declassify and release very sensitive high confidence intelligence on Russian military plans and intention has taken the wind out of Putin’s element of surprise. This unsettles Putin and most importantly his military to no end. The operational work up on Putin nailed this. He likes stealth and fears transparency, and this makes him retrench and stall for fairer weather.

The calculus for invasion is not what it was. Stinger Missiles are in the hands of the Ukrainian military, as well as more than 2,000 Javelins. Another large British delivery of modern TOW-like anti-armor missiles for urban warfare are being deployed. And this means the cost to Putin, including embarrassing defeats in battle, cannot be ruled out. Just remember Grozny. Urban warfare is not the Russian armies forte. This would make his case in 2024 even more difficult. It is true that Russia can deliver a devastating blow to Ukraine with its artillery-centric lethal forces. However, any occupation of Ukraine would be impossible. It took the Red Army at the height of its power nearly 10 years to pacify Ukraine – and this is not the Red Army. Ukrainians are extremely good at partisan warfare and will fight until the end. An ethnic Russian living in Ukraine summed up this reality to an CNBC reporter in Kharkiv, the second largest city with a decidedly ethnic Russian population: “I was born in Russia. I speak Russian and I think in Russian, but I will fight and die for this country!”

If Putin invades and severe sanctions are applied, he will no doubt blame every calamity and problem in Russia on America and NATO. He will absolve himself of everything and Russia again will be the victim. But when the “Cargo 200” Zinc caskets begin to return to Russia, the powder keg of his own corrupt makings will??ignite a storm that blows his regime into the ash bin of history. Public cracks in Russian unity are now appearing. Putin’s fears are being realized.?Moscow Times?reported on February 2nd?that leading Russian intellectuals have?called on?for a de-escalation in the current standoff over Ukraine to avoid an "immoral, irresponsible, and criminal" war.?

And now, the most troubling shot across Putin’s bow appears to have occurred. The "All-Russian Officers' Assembly," the retired military organization, has reportedly released a declaration opposing war with Ukraine on January 31st. At the bottom of the document was the attribution, “Appeal by Chairman of the ‘All-Russian Officers' Assembly’" Colonel-General Leonid Grigoryevich Ivashov to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation on the ‘The Eve of War.’”??This man is does not have great influence, but he certainly reflects the concerns of the Russian military. The statement appears to have been made on January 31stbut was only more widely reported after February 5th. The group’s website?https://ooc.su/?is no longer functioning. Denials are circulating but he has disappeared from public life. Is the General arrested or is he even alive?

Col.-Gen. Ivashov is said to have written that external threats are not critical: strategic stability is generally maintained, nuclear weapons are under control, and NATO forces are not building up.?

“Therefore, the situation escalated around Ukraine is, first of all, artificial, mercenary in nature for certain internal forces, including the Russian Federation.”?

To paraphrase, the use of military force against Ukraine would call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state, forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies, and lead to tens of thousands of deaths on both sides. Then:

“In our opinion, the country’s leadership, realizing that it is not capable of leading the country out of the?systemic crisis, and this can lead to an uprising of the people and a change of power in the country, with the support of the oligarchy, corrupt officials, lured media and security forces, decided to activate the political line for the final the destruction of Russian statehood and the extermination of the country's indigenous population."

The retired officers demanded that President Putin abandon the "criminal policy of provoking war" and resign and asked Russian retired and reserve military personnel to support their demands.

The West needs to stand firm and united. Independent negotiations and initiatives need to be ended. Putin only respects the United States, and his beef is with NATO. If Putin remains in power, there can be no stable and predictable relations with Russia. Any compromise will only encourage more demands and will condemn the Russian people to silence and powerlessness. Putin’s troubles and failures to govern and lead Russia at home are the driver for his dangerous gamesmanship along with his grand ambitions. It is becoming clearer each day that his actions are hoping to prevent the silent Russian majority from standing up and saying no.??

The Western world, led by American should understand this and just say no.