Putin has his strategy to "win". 1st exploit Dugina as a fake martyr, 2nd use blackmail via stolen documents from Mar A Lago. 3rd, be an oil barony
The strategy of Putin to "win" is so simple it is almost a comic source of whataboutism itself
A. Weaponize the death of Dugina, whom Putin almost certainly had killed, as a way to whip up support with the Russian far right, and Serbia, which frankly is a Neo Nazi holdout.
B. Weaponize Donald Trump and the stolen security documents from Mar A Lago: Use these documents to threaten the NATO alliance, and the USA any way possible
C. Go full oil Barony. I.e. outdo Saudi Arabia as a corrupt oil kleporcracy
D. Call in his markers globally as to a confederacy of the global racist right, to play the victim card, and to use that fake radical right "brotherhood" in Europe, North America, and other places as an endless supply of shock troops to terrorize Ukraine, and the rest of Europe and America with far right fanatics, Paging M. Greene as an example
E. Use an endless echo chamber of whataboutery through the US GOP and the far right globally to mask the following
quote
Falakshali says China cannot buy much more Russian oil than it already is, because of a domestic slowdown in demand, and because it simply doesn't need much more of the specific type of oil Russia exports.
Price will play a critical role, too, in whether Russia can afford to keep discounting to secure new markets.
"A discount of 30% from $120 a barrel is one thing," Nechaev points out. "A discount from $70 is another matter."
'Slower burn'
While global inflation is helping Russia's energy sector, it's hurting its people. Much like the rest of Europe, Russians are already suffering a cost of living crisis, made much worse by the war in Ukraine.
end of quote
whataboutery fanned by Donald Trump, and the GOP in N.America, Le Pen in France, and of course any sucker whom the Kremlin will be able to coerce in the EU will be the action variables
what a great plan, NOT
quote
'Slower burn.' Russia dodges economic collapse but the decline has started
Analysis by Clare Sebastian, CNN
Updated 12:20 AM EDT, Sun August 28, 2022
London(CNN Business)Six months after invading Ukraine, Russia is bogged down in a war of attrition it didn't anticipate but it is having success on another front —?its oil-dependent economy?is in a?deep recession?but proving?far more resilient than expected.
"I'm driving through Moscow and the same traffic jams are there as before," says Andrey Nechaev, who was Russia's economy minister in the early 1990s.
The readiness of China and India to snap up cheap Russian oil has helped, but Nechaev and other analysts say Russia's economy has started to decline and is likely facing a prolonged period of stagnation as a consequence of Western sanctions.
On the surface, not much has changed, bar a few empty storefronts that once housed?Western brands that have fled the country in their hundreds.?McDonalds?(MCD)?is now called "Vkusno i tochka", or "Tasty, and that's it" and?Starbucks?(SBUX)?cafes are now gradually reopening under the barely disguised brand Stars Coffee.
The streets of Moscow are as busy as ever.
The exodus of Western businesses, and wave after wave of punishing Western sanctions targeting Russia's vital energy exports and its financial system, are having an impact, but not in the way many had expected.
Nechaev, who presided over some of Russia's most turbulent economic times and helped steer its transition to a market economy, credits some of this to?the central bank.
The ruble did crash to a record low to the US dollar earlier this year in the wake of the invasion as the West froze about half of Russia's $600 billion foreign currency reserves. But it's bounced back since to its strongest level against the US dollar since 2018. (Remember President Joe Biden's threat of reducing it to?"rubble"?)
That's largely the result of aggressive capital controls and rate hikes back in the spring, much of which have now been reversed. Interest rates are now lower than before the war, and the central bank says inflation, which peaked at almost 18% in April, is slowing and will be between 12% and 15% for the full year.
The central bank has also revised up its GDP forecast for the year, and now expects it to shrink by 4% to 6%. In April, the forecast was for an 8% to 10% contraction. The International Monetary Fund also now predicts a 6% contraction.
Moscow had been trying to build a 'fortress economy' since annexing Crimea in 2014.
It helped that the Kremlin had eight years to prepare, spurred by the sanctions the West imposed after Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.
"The exit of Mastercard, Visa, it barely had an impact on domestic payments because the central bank had its own alternative system of payments," says Nechaev.
Russia set up the Mir credit card, and its own transaction processing system in 2017.
And there's a reason Russian fans of McDonalds and Starbucks are still able to get their fast-food fix, says Chris Weafer, founding partner of Macro Advisory Ltd, a consultancy advising multinational businesses in Russia and Eurasia.
Since 2014, many Western brands in Russia caved to government pressure and localized some or all of their supply chains. So when these companies left, it was relatively easy for Russian buyers to buy them and keep running them simply by changing the wrapper and packaging.
"Same people, same products, same supply," says Weafer.
It's not an entirely watertight strategy, though.
The re-branded McDonald's stores reported a shortage of French fries in mid-July, when Russia's potato harvest fell short, and foreign suppliers wouldn't fill the gap due to sanctions.
Can Russia's energy boom continue?
Fast food continuity is one thing. Russia's longer term stability rests on its energy sector, still by far the biggest source of government revenues.
To say high energy prices have so far insulated Russia would be an understatement.
The International Energy Agency says Russia's revenues from selling oil and gas to Europe doubled between March and July this year, compared to an average of recent years. That's despite declining volumes. IEA data shows gas deliveries to Europe are down by about 75% over the past 12 months.
Oil is a different matter. The IEA's March prediction that 3 million barrels a day of Russian oil would come off the market from April because of sanctions, or the threat of them, has not materialized. Exports have held up, though Rystad Energy analysts note a slight drop over the summer.
The major factor has been Russia's ability to find new markets in Asia.
According to Houmayoun Falakshali from commodities consultancy Kpler, most of Russia's seaborne oil exports have gone to Asia since the start of the war. In July, the share was 56%, compared to just 37% in July 2021.
Russian seaborne oil exports to Asia have soared this year.
Between January and July this year, China increased its seaborne imports of heavily-discounted Russian Urals crude by 40%, compared to the same period last year, according to Kpler data. That's despite China's initial efforts?to avoid the appearance of taking sides?in Russia's war on Ukraine. India's seaborne imports from Russia are up more than 1,700% over the same period, according to Kpler. Russia has also been increasing gas exports to China through a Siberian pipeline.
What happens when Europe's embargo on 90% of Russian oil comes into force in December, will be critical. An estimated 2 million barrels a day of Russian oil will be in limbo, and while it's likely some of that will go to Asia, experts doubt whether demand will be high enough to absorb it all.
Falakshali says China cannot buy much more Russian oil than it already is, because of a domestic slowdown in demand, and because it simply doesn't need much more of the specific type of oil Russia exports.
Price will play a critical role, too, in whether Russia can afford to keep discounting to secure new markets.
"A discount of 30% from $120 a barrel is one thing," Nechaev points out. "A discount from $70 is another matter."
'Slower burn'
While global inflation is helping Russia's energy sector, it's hurting its people. Much like the rest of Europe, Russians are already suffering a cost of living crisis, made much worse by the war in Ukraine.
Nechaev, who helped steer Russia through a much more dramatic economic collapse in the 1990s, is worried.
"In terms of the standard of living, if you measure it by real incomes, we have gone backwards by about 10 years," he says.
The Russian government is spending to try to combat this. In May, it announced it would raise pensions and the minimum wage by 10%.
It's set up a system where employees of companies that have "suspended their activities" can temporarily transfer to another employer without breaking their employment contract. And it's spending 17 billion rubles ($280 million) buying the bonds of Russian airlines, crippled by airspace bans and sanctions preventing maintenance and the supply of parts by foreign manufacturers.
It's technology sanctions, like those affecting the airline industry that may have the most profound impact on Russia's long-term economic prospects. In June, US commerce secretary Gina Raimondo said global semiconductor exports to Russia had collapsed by 90% since the war started. That is crippling production of everything from cars to computers, and will, experts say, put it further behind in the global technology race.
"The impact of sanctions will be more a slower burn rather than a quick hit," says Weafer. "Russia is now looking at potentially a long period of stagnation."
Nechaev is even more definitive. "Right now, the economic decline has started," he says.
领英推荐
end of quote
whereas
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/what-now/46856/
quote
What now?
Shirley Kennedy?|?11:39 pm EDT August 27, 2022
All who wanted the affidavit leading to the warrant granting access to the FBI to search Mar-a-Lago are likely less than satisfied by the redacted version released by Judge Reinhart. Redactions aside, one thing is clear: the DOJ and FBI executed the warrant in connection with a criminal investigation. Trump, et al. can also stop calling the search “politically motivated.” The DOJ referral came from the National Archives, which organization is tasked with keeping presidential records safe. The opening text in the affidavit is clear: “The government is conducting a criminal investigation concerning the improper removal and storage of classified information in unauthorized spaces, as well as the unlawful concealment or removal of government records.” Trump can continue to cry “mine” all he wants, but it is painfully clear to whom those documents belong.
We can easily see why the DOJ wanted those records back where they belong. Much of the top-secret information Trump took involves national intelligence and national defense. Eric Swalwell spoke with MSNBC’s Ali Velshi on the issue. According to Swalwell, Trump has jeopardized our troops. Swalwell said that “defense information” includes information about the troops, their movements, and their locations. The information taken by Trump also jeopardizes sources who help the U.S., putting their lives at risk. Swalwell made a very valid point by reminding everyone that Donald Trump never wanted to take part in intelligence briefings while in the White House, yet that’s the very information he removed. As Swalwell said: “We can only conclude the worst,” and that is exactly how the intelligence community is taking this egregious act.
According to Politico, the U.S. intelligence community has begun to evaluate the risks involved in Trump taking these records to his private property, where virtually anyone could have accessed them. This does not include anyone he might have willingly given the information to, and there is no reason to assume he did not do that. Why else would he take documents of this nature? Politico obtained a copy of the letter from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines to House Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney and House Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff. As the affidavit intimated, the DOJ is continuing its criminal investigation, and in her letter, Haines assured that their review will not “unduly interfere with DOJ’s ongoing criminal investigation.” It certainly sounds like Trump has finally crossed enough lines to suffer consequences. God only knows what all he took and what he has done with documents that have not yet been recovered.
end of quote
finally exploitation of the person whom Putin Murdered. Dugina
quote
Could Putin's FSB Be Linked to Dugin's Daughter's Killing?
BY?ISABEL VAN BRUGEN?ON 8/24/22 AT 12:12 PM EDT
As uncertainty continues to surround the killing of Darya Dugina, the daughter of an influential ally of?Russian President Vladimir Putin, many have floated the possibility that?Putin?himself may have been behind the blast that killed her.
Dugina, 29, daughter of Russian political commentator?Alexander Dugin, was killed in a?car bombing?on the outskirts of Moscow on Saturday. Her father, 60, has been credited with being a key architect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Numerous theories and accusations circulated in the aftermath of her death.
Russia's FSB security services, after a brief investigation, claimed that a female Ukrainian citizen was involved in?Dugina's killing?and that the woman fled to Estonia on Sunday. Ukraine has denied any involvement.
Former Russian state deputy?Ilya Ponomarev?alleged that Dugina was killed by Russian partisans from the so-called National Republican Army (NRA), and that both Dugin and his daughter were targets.
He claimed the NRA's goal is to "overthrow" and "destroy Putin." Ponomarev's claims could not be verified by?Newsweek.
Some experts say?Dugina's death may have been plotted by Putin himself, although no concrete evidence to back up these theories have surfaced.
Tom Tugendhat, a British member of Parliament, suggested that Putin may have targeted Dugin over recent criticisms made against the Kremlin.
Could Russia's FSB be linked to Dugina's death??Newsweek?asked a couple of experts to weigh in on the matter and to break down existing claims.
FSB 'Disinformation Campaign'
Sergej Sumlenny, a German political expert with a particular focus on Russia and Eastern Europe, told?Newsweek?that he believes the Kremlin's version of Dugina's assassination is "totally fake."
"It's absolutely out of the scale of plausibility," said Sumlenny, pointing to the evidence the FSB produced in attempting to pin the blame on a female Ukrainian citizen, who allegedly arrived in Russia in July with her daughter, rented an apartment in the same building as Dugina and spied on her before killing her.
The FSB released a purported passport photo of the Ukrainian citizen, as well as footage that allegedly showed her in Russia.?Data analysts?were quick to point out on?Twitter?that the document was photoshopped.
"We already see that what they call evidence is clearly forged, for example, the ID of the woman who they say has killed Dugina is photoshopped," said Sumlenny.
Sumlenny suggested the allegations are part of the FSB's "standard disinformation campaign after every event."
"Why did they do this? Because they want to spoil the discussion. They want us to dig into all these insane versions and spend all valuable time in debunking them," he explained.
Does the NRA Exist?
Sumlenny said that from a historical point of view, he doesn't believe that the?NRA?underground partisan group exists at all, and suggested that it may even be a creation of the FSB.
"I don't believe it [NRA] exists, why? Russia is a state with very strong surveillance and a lot of informants among all potential groups," he explained.
In recent history, there were no terrorist networks in Russia, except for some Islamic terror groups in northern Caucasus, and a gang of young men, known as the Primorsky Partisans, who, in the early 2000s, committed crimes, including the murder of two policemen, Sumlenny said.
"All other terrorist groups which existed after that were poor FSB creations," he said.
Sumlenny explained that a?typical FSB strategy?has been to attend political discussion clubs in universities, infiltrate them with an agent and attempt to radicalize these young people in order to present them as a terror group.
He pointed to the "non-existent" terror group Set, which Russian authorities said were plotting to overthrow the government.
Rights groups and lawyers argued that charges against the members were fabricated and that they were tortured into confessing. Russian opposition leader?Alexei Navalny?also described the Set group a "fictitious terrorist organization."
"So this is how Russian terror groups are being created," said Sumlenny. "So to think that some anti-Putin liberal pro-European movement has appeared, which is not infiltrated by the FSB, which has skills to assemble a bomb, to put this bomb into a car and to let it explode remotely. It's impossible."
Given the Kremlin's official narrative is that Ukraine is behind Dugina's killing, it is only logical that Russia has yet to comment on the existence of the NRA, Sumlenny suggested.
"Their unofficial narrative, which they have allowed to be spread is the 'underground movement,'—they also need to crack down [on opposition]. So they let this narrative be transmitted."
'A Patriotic Flame'
Ruslan Trad, a security researcher at the U.S. think tank Atlantic Council, told?Newsweek?it is evident that the murder of Dugina "created a wave of needed anger" in Russia, now six months into its war against neighboring Ukraine.
"Dugin is now mostly a symbol, not an instrument for the state. His role in the creation of the current Kremlin mythology for Eurasia and the so-called 'Russian world' has already ended and he can be sacrificed," Trad said. "Currently, the Russian army needs victories, a patriotic flame."
The Russian state and its proxies already use?murder for political purposes, he said.
"Undoubtedly, this will not be the last such episode in Russian history and an internal order should not be ruled out by one of the security agencies."
Trad also noted that there has been tension between?Dugin, who was the main actor behind the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the FSB, which led the major operations in Ukraine until recently.
"He [Dugin] accuses the agency of not working properly and failing military operations. Putin is influenced by Dugin—he is one of his main spiritual advisers and inspires him. Everyone in the Kremlin knows this."
Echoing Trad's remarks, Sumlenny suggested that Dugina may have been killed by the FSB to kickstart a campaign to intensify the war.
end of quote
Andrew Beckwith, PhD