Putin is dead? Tsaryov is alive? Antisemitism in Russia. US splitting support? Drones powered by Western components.

Putin is (still) not dead

Last week, the search on Google topped the question “Is Putin dead”. It did not come out of the blue or from wishful thinking, but it all started with Telegram channel General SVR and political scientist Valery Solovey claiming that Putin just died. According to the channel, Putin suffered cardiac arrest and died on October 26th in his Valdai residence. "Now doctors are blocked in the room with Putin's corpse and are being held by employees of the presidential security service on the personal order of Dmitry Kochnev, who is in touch and receives instructions from the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev. The security of the president's double has been strengthened. Active negotiations are underway. Any attempt to pass off a double as president after Putin's death is a coup d'état.”

Well, Putin is still not dead, Dmitry Peskov confirmed a day later, as the chief terrorist was seen in the Security Council meeting. Well, usually when Peskov confirms something, it gets our attention for all the wrong reasons. His confirmation often means that the truth is the opposite; otherwise, he would not be reacting. Usual principles of communication - reacting to bad news gets even more attention (Streisand effect). This time he is probably right, though: Putin is still alive.

Firstly, it is almost impossible to hide such a thing even from foreign intelligence. Secondly, Solovey is known for his conspiracy theories and love of attention, while General SVR is not really a reliable source and is probably connected to Solovey. A rather interesting thing, though, are the reactions and aftermath. The reactions to Putin′s possible death were rather curious and cheering, not deep sorrow and grief. Yes, there might have been grief, but en masse, it was far from it. You might almost call it a relief. Just as when Prygozhin almost reached Moscow, there were no masses protecting their beloved leader (who escaped), and it was once again rather a wake-up call for the Kremlin. Next year, in "elections,” you have to fake it big. Like, really big. Constant rumours about Putin being sick or dead don′t really help in elections either. Would you like to vote for a leader who might not live long enough to serve until the end of his second term? Not that it changes anything, but these days of Google search “can I already open champagne” were not happy days for Kremlin.

Oh, btw, another denial of Peskov is probably vice versa. As for rumours that Putin uses body doubles, Peskov insisted: “Russian President Vladimir Putin is healthy and does not use body doubles for public appearances”. Well, he does. Interesting latest investigation about comparing Putin's faces using AI by Japanese researchers Hint: not really resembling.

Pogroms of Jews in Russian Dagestan

It was shocking, yet not surprising, to see the violent mass riots against Jews in Russian Dagestan. An angry local mostly Muslim crowd broke into a hotel, raided even police cars, and blocked the airport in “search of Jews”. I will not even be repeating the extremist expressions used. Violence based on nationality, ethnicity, or religion is the worst kind, in line with all the war crimes in Ukraine.

The word “pogrom” depicts violent riots with the aim of massacring or expelling certain ethnicities, and it comes from 19th- and 20th-century attacks on Jews in the Russian Empire. Many pogroms took place in the beginning of the 20th century, and in Czar Russia, they had even the so-called Pale of Settlement—areas in which Jewish nationals could live or trade while not being allowed to cross these lines. The allowed regions included part of Ukraine, down from Dnipro, Belarus, and Poland.

So Jews were already discriminated against in Czar times, and it continued and reached new “heights” in the Soviet Union under Stalin, where Yiddish-writing poets, writers, sculptors, and doctors were killed or repressed. Antisemitism continued during the Soviet Union and started decreasing only after its collapse. While in 2009, 34% were unfavourable to Jews, the number dropped to 18% in 2019, according to Pew Research. With the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the anti-Semitic rhetoric has slowly returned, although Putin has underlined several times that he “is not against Jews; his friends are Jews”. Right, the handpicked billionaires. Last week, tensions peaked, also due to the war in Israel, with a Jewish cultural centre in Nalchik set on fire and over 500 protesters storming a hotel in Khasavyurt, shouting that "Jews are not allowed here" after rumours had been spread that Israeli refugees were residing there. Russian police intervened and permitted some of the protesters to enter the hotel to confirm that there were no Israeli nationals present. A sign was then placed at the entrance, declaring that "entry for Israeli citizens is strictly prohibited." On the same day, October 29, an angry crowd of several hundred stormed Uytash Airport after a plane had landed from Tel Aviv. The passengers could not leave the plane for several hours after the protesters surrounded the plane. Local authorities condemned what happened just 5 hours later.

So what does it have to do with Kremlin, right? Well, it does. During the last few years, antisemitism has increased again. While only radical political leaders have allowed themselves direct antisemitism, the hidden hints from Putin are also constantly present, creating the background and perception. The current demagogic path has been leading to the Soviet Union and Cold War rhetoric and that is leading the old path to antisemitism.? As well, radical Muslims are not condemned, even when breaking the law and ignoring all human rights. You might remember the video of 15-year-old Adam Kadyrov beating up the prisoner who burned the Quran, and his father, Ramzan Kadyrov, proudly posting it on his social media. Adam was not charged; he received several medals instead for “strengthening of traditional Islamic values”. The second medal was presented by the head of Russia′s Tatarstan Republic after one of the State Council members made the comment, “What legal field do we exist in? The head of a region of the Russian Federation awards the title of 'Hero' to his son for beating up a? man." The official making the comment apologised, and the medal was presented to young Kadyrov.

Also, Dagestan, where riots arose, is one of the most repressed and poorest regions, known as the region that suffers the biggest losses in the war against Ukraine.

What Putin does not probably yet realise is that when you support hatred and chaos, it will get you. Supporting ethnicity and nationality-based hatred will, at some point, come after its creator. Whether it will be uncontrollable chaos, Kadyrov standing up against the Kremlin, or riots in repressed regions, a monster might destroy its creator.

PS. Putin himself blamed Ukraine, social media and West on organizing the pogroms. So Ukraine organised it 1200km away and Russia was enable to prevent and stop it? Bad optics.

Tsarev is (still) alive as well

An assassination attempt was made on famous Ukrainian separatist Oleg Tsaryov in temporarily occupied Yalta, Crimea. The former MP of Ukraine, Tsaryov, became widely known because of his ultra-pro-Russian stand and opposition to the Maidan. As a member of President Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions, he fled Ukraine shortly after the Revolution of Dignity and tried to co-manage the failed Surkov's Novorossiya project. He was speculated to be one of those whom Putin might have thought of as the "temporary ruler of Ukraine" after the "capture of Kyiv in three days" and the expected escape of Volodymyr Zelensky. A few years ago, however, Tsaryov withdrew from public politics, and a day before the assassination attempt, the Russian extremist channel Tsargrad Tsaryov published a surprisingly Russia-critical interview with Tsaryov. On the channel belonging to the sanctioned oligarch Malofeyev, the former deputy declared that there was probably no hope that Russia could win and that the Russian army has significant problems. A day later, an unknown person shot Tsaryov twice in his residence at the Yalta sanatorium, and it is known only that the former politician is in a very serious condition in the hospital.

Deadly Lancet drones, flat in London and UN

Lancet drones are deadly yet precise. ?his most famous invention is the Lancet suicide drone (loitering munition), which delivers a warhead directly to a target — a tank, artillery installation, radar, etc. Russians are even calling them “the second Kalashnikov”. Now Russian forces are reportedly using a new version of the “Lancet” kamikaze drone that can autonomously identify targets, with the ability to distinguish types of targets and increase strike success rates, according to ISW.

There are several things wrong with it. Firstly - according to Ukrainian Special Services Lancet producers can still get the Western components. Yes, the components come with higher price tag but this is not really an issue. Secondly, the drone was for 15 years developed by Russian military engineer Alexander Zakharov.

His son Alexander though has been working at the UN disarmament wing since this May, and is involved in research about 'strengthening weapons and ammunition management' and 'de-mining and humanitarian access'. With his mother Svitlana, a 24-year old university graduate purchased 1.5 million pounds flat in London with three apartments and Big Ben view. While Alexander has not been publicly related to fathers drone business, his mother has. Friendly Londongrad, international UN and blind eye in sanctions.

Is the US splitting the support?

Just last week, I wrote about POTUS Joe Biden asking to support Israel and Ukraine and packaging it as one support package so that even opposing Republicans could not restrain. Well, they did, with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson now asking to split the packages. Like “Israel needs financing quickly,” Ukraine can wait. Ukraine cannot wait. Ukraine has waited for over 600 days without the supply of proper weapons in the right quantities and on time. Just reminding the US of one of the reasons that Ukraine does not have nuclear missiles to detain Russia. Russia would not have attacked a nuclear country. Yet it was George Bush who convinced Ukraine not only to give up its nuclear arsenal but to give it over to Russia. It was called the Budapest Memorandum, and with this memorandum, the US guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine. So, Ukraine cannot wait; it comes with a price. Price of lives while partners are lagging to deliver on their promises. Just a reminder that most of the money does not even reach Ukraine; it is spent in the US for producing weapons from US companies, creating jobs in Ukraine. However, it is consoling to know that according to a Razom/Change Research poll from October, 69% of American voters believe that America must rally its allies and defend vulnerable allies like Ukraine and Israel. And even more, 55% are more likely to support the candidate that will help win the war, compared to 26% saying that the US should withdraw help. Quite an interesting poll. So all eyes are on the US, a critical ally for Ukraine, and it's time to be “the sheriff in town" again.