Putin coming in from the Cold

Introduction: the state of current geopolitical affairs

In recent years, international geopolitical attention has focused on entanglements in the East. In the Far East, rising tensions between China and America and between China and Taiwan are the dominating themes. In Eastern Europe, of course, there is the war in Ukraine, an offshoot of what Russia sees as the West's broken promise not to extend NATO to Russia's borders. The war in Ukraine has recently claimed most international media and political attention which, much to Hamas' frustration, had weakened the interest in the Palestinian issue. Hamas therefore devised and implemented the diabolical plan to use ultra-violence in its attack on the Jewish population, in order to provoke Israel into a fierce counter-reaction. Hamas knew that international public opinion would turn against its own attack but also reckoned that the same public opinion would soon turn against Israel once it itself used excessive force against Hamas. And so it happened. Meanwhile, Iran, the spider in the Middle East web, is doing its best to stoke the fire further. It fears the Fire and Fury of the US military and Israel's nuclear might, and therefore prefers to wage so-called "proxy wars". These are wars fought between groups of smaller countries, each representing the interests of other larger powers and able to get aid and support from these powers. Iran prefers to let others take the hot coals out of the fire and acts as a generous sponsor of Hezbollah [Arabic for Party of God] in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels, named after Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, the founder of the movement Ansar Allah [Arabic for Supporters of God] in Yemen, among others. The 29 January drone attack that killed three US soldiers in Jordan may have been carried out by radical Iranian-backed groups operating in Syria and Iraq. So today, it is all East that rings the geopolitical bell.

But because of the pervasive focus on escalations in the East, another geopolitical landslide remains out of sight. This landslide is taking place in the Far North. And to get there, we first return to the Houthis. The impact of the Houthi rebels' attacks on shipping traffic in the Red Sea makes the vulnerability of global supply chains as well as the geopolitical vulnerability of countries like China painfully clear. And it highlights America's enormous geopolitical strength. But there are not only Yemeni hijackers on the coast. There is also climate change leading to profound changes in the international balance of power. It will eventually give Russia and China a huge economic and geopolitical advantage.

DIRE STRAITS

Shipping accounts for 80 per cent of international goods transport. The Cape Route, which passes through the Cape of Good Hope, was long the only maritime connection between northern Europe and the Asian coasts. Since 1869, except for capesize mastodons, the Suez [Canal] Route has offered a 6,000-kilometre shorter alternative. As such, it is generally cheaper than the Cape Route, but it is more fragile because it has to pass through more narrow straits.

The Suez Route, viewed from Europe, passes through the English Channel and then through the Strait of Gibraltar, 14 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, which gives access to the Mediterranean. The journey then continues through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea. Before reaching the Indian Ocean, ships have to pass through Bab el-Mandeb, Arabic for 'Gate of Tears', a 27-kilometre-wide strait where the Houthis strike today and which thus does not only take its name from its many shallows and cross currents.

But things get really exciting in the Strait of Malacca, the naval passage between Sumatra and Malaysia that gives access to the South China Sea. The Strait of Malacca is the world's busiest shipping route. It is also the privileged supply route to Asia of oil from the Persian Gulf. China imports most of its oil needs via this route. And that is where the shoe pinches. After all, the Indian Ocean, which includes the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, and the Western Pacific Ocean are controlled by the US Navy. It is a breeze for America to seal off the Strait of Malacca, which is shaped like a trap with an entrance only 2.8 kilometres wide at the Phillips Channel in Singapore, to wring the neck of the Chinese economy.

In addition, Taiwan serves as what General MacArthur once called America's Unsinkable Aircraft carrier because it obstructs China's free access to the Western Pacific. If China annexes Taiwan or blocks the Taiwan Strait, and America strikes back by blocking the Strait of Malacca, we will have WWIII.

A WAY OUT

China has a way out through its Belt & Road Initiative (OBOR), also called the New Silk Road. It can also organise its traffic with Europe by train. Unfortunately for China, compared to maritime transport via the Suez Route, the train is expensive and cumbersome.??????????????????????????????

But climate change will eventually offer China another way out. The ice in the Arctic Ocean, also called the Arctic Sea, one of our planet's 5 oceans (see Figure 5), is increasingly melting away during the summer months, raising the prospect of a new commercial maritime route between Europe and Asia: the mythical Northern Sea Route.

The Northern Sea Route starts over Norway and runs along the coasts of Siberia through the Bering Strait before deflecting eastwards. This route is as much as 7,000 kilometres shorter than the Suez Route. In the long run, the Northern Sea Route could offer a real alternative to the Suez Route, much to the delight of China and also Russia, which could thus bypass Western sanctions. After all, the route is not only noticeably shorter. It largely runs along the Russian coasts and is thus almost entirely under Russia's control. Russia labels the expansion of the Northern Sea Route as the backbone of its National Arctic Strategy and is investing massively in new ports, in rail and military infrastructure and in nuclear submarines and icebreakers to accompany commercial ships.

FROZEN TREASURES

The development of the Russian Arctic has been driven not only by the desire to find an alternative to the Suez Route, but also to lay hands on the region's immense seabed resources which, like the Northern Sea Route, are becoming more easily accessible due to global warming. The Arctic is rich in oil and gas and is estimated to host around 13% of the world's undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of the world's undiscovered gas reserves. Russia has the world's largest gas reserves and 80% of them are in the Arctic. Some experts estimate its hydrocarbon reserves at 10 billion tonnes (!). It is also rich in gold, platinum (about 40% of world reserves), zinc (idem), titanium (indispensable in aviation and military industries), rare earths (indispensable in the energy transition) and much more. In this context, the Northern Sea Route should act as the maritime highway by which Russia can drain this wealth.

ARCTIC POKER

Under international law, the North Pole and the Arctic Ocean belong to no one. However, under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS], the five countries with territory within the Arctic Circle - Canada, Norway, Russia, the US (through Alaska) and Denmark, through its control of Greenland - do have economic rights to a 200-mile zone beyond their coastline (the areas on the outside of the red dotted line in Figure 8). However, the treaty can be appealed to the UN. Because enough is never enough, Denmark, Canada and Russia claim large tracts of seabed in the Arctic (inside the dotted line in Figure 8). Central to their claims is a submarine mountain range you may never have heard of: the Lomonosov Ridge, which runs 1,240 miles through the Arctic. Each of the three countries attempts to show that the Lomonosov Ridge is part of their own continental flat. According to Denmark, the mountain range is an extension of the autonomous region of Greenland. According to Canada, it is an extension of Ellesmere Island in the Canadian territory of Nunavut. And according to Russia, it is an extension of the Siberian archipelago Franz Josef Land.

To bolster their argument, in 2007 two Russian mini-submarines pulled off a feat by planting a titanium Russian flag at a depth of more than four kilometres on the bottom of the Arctic Ocean off the North Pole. They also collected water and sediment samples from the seabed to substantiate the Russian connection to the Lomonosov Ridge. The UN were not convinced. America also claims a piece of the pie (the green part in Figure 8) through Alaska. An interesting historical fact is that America bought Alaska from Russia in 1867 for a paltry $7.2 million, about $130 million in today's dollars, a bargain that allowed America to add 1,518,800 square kilometres to its territory.

The chances of any of the four parties involved of convincing the UN are zero. Russia will, when it comes down to it, just grab what it wants. In the central Arctic power game, since the UN will never slash the Gordian knot, the law of the jungle finally applies. And Russia is particularly strong in the Arctic. Russia has its geography in its favour: more than half of the Arctic Ocean borders Russia. Russia also has by far the most experience in operating in the extreme weather conditions peculiar to the region. While Denmark and Canada are members of NATO, it is too weak to confront the Russian military in the region. The US Navy may dominate in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, but in the Arctic, home to Russia's Northern Fleet, Russia is master and commander. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Northern Fleet fell into decline but Putin turned the tide when he took office. The Northern Fleet includes eight nuclear submarines capable of firing ballistic missiles and 19 attack submarines. Russia has more than 50 operational polar icebreakers, while America has a mere two, only one of which is operational and then thanks to spare parts from the other. America is slowly starting to wake up and is building its first deep-sea port in the Arctic at Nome (Alaska), which of course will not only serve to welcome cruise ships. But it will take until the end of this decade to complete it. NATO is also getting in on the act. At the request of Finland and Sweden, NATO deliberately paid little attention to the area in the past so as not to irritate the Russian bear, but the invasion of Ukraine and their membership of NATO has changed this attitude. The fact that in the summer of 2022 and 2023, Russian and Chinese warships conducted joint manoeuvres in the waters around Alaska will be no stranger to this.

ETERNAL FRIENDSHIP

Russia and China are natural allies. Already today, Russia offers China a way out over land to stay out of the clutches of the US Navy. What China lacks in raw materials, oil and gas in particular, Russia has in abundance. The resource-rich Arctic piques China's interest for the same reason. In 2014, President Xi Jinping declared that China should become a polar power. He proclaimed China a "near-Arctic power" in 2018, thanks to hocus-pocus with the world map, but this self-assigned status has little or no value on the international playing field. China has no sovereign claim to the Arctic and is therefore not allowed under UNCLOS to mine resources or engage in commercial fishing in foreign territorial or international waters. China thus relies on cooperation with the real Arctic countries, Russia preferably of course. China has included the Arctic on the Polar Silk Road, as part of the wider Belt & Road initiative. China has thus pumped nearly $100 billion into joint ventures in mining and infrastructure to import raw materials from the Arctic. The Chinese money went in no small part to the construction of the port of Sabetta right on a giant gas field where a correspondingly giant Yamal LNG plant converts the gas into LNG. China has 30% of the capital, a third of it through the Polar Silk Route Investment Fund.

MORE DREAM THAN REALITY?

The commercial potential of the Northern Sea Route is controversial. Russian authorities hope to ship more than 190 million tonnes of cargo through the Northern Sea Route by 2030. That volume cannot compete with that of the Suez Route, where ships carry 1.41 billion tonnes of cargo today, but it tastes like more. However, some experts do not believe in it and think that transport via that route is doomed to remain marginal. True, the Northern Sea Route is much shorter than the Suez Route, but sailing through the ice sea involves numerous dangers - and costs. "Arctic Class" ships, of course, have to be able to take an icy beating and are therefore expensive. Any escort by a polar icebreaker is not free either. Insurance premiums are high. Global warming may lead to less ice, but it is far from leading to no ice. Ships have to deal with floating ice masses, thick fog and extreme cold, the latter admittedly to a lesser extent than in Antarctica thanks to the relatively warm ocean water at the North Pole. The extreme cold necessitates the use of more expensive light fuel. Rescue missions, ship repairs and supplies in the area are no easy matter. And there is the ecological impact of black carbon and sulphate aerosols emitted by the ships. All in all, a perilous undertaking.

Those with a moment to spare, during a corporate meeting or so, can take a look at www.vesselfinder.com , which tracks and visualises international maritime cargo traffic. You can track each ship by name, interesting for the Houthi rebels by the way. Figure 9 shows a snapshot on 2 February 2024 at 12h30 CET.

The top right corner of the visualisation is the Arctic, and is virtually unnavigated at the moment. Of course, it is also winter in Russia. But global warming is changing everything. On 17 August 2017, the flagship of the commercial Arctic fleet, the Christophe de Margerie, named after the former CEO of French oil giant Total who had strong ties to Russia - and an iconic moustache that also adorns the ship's bow - made its first voyage from Europe to South Korea without the help of a polar icebreaker.

Russia, and to a lesser extent China, are the bipolar winners of global warming. By 2080, climate warming would also make agriculture possible in about half of Siberia, a daunting 10-million-square-kilometre area. But that is yet another story.

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Jan Longeval, 2 February 2024

Kounselor Consulting (www.kounselor.be )

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