The Pursuit of Proof

"This is my happy place.” Richard Bugan is all smiles as he splashes into the tumbling Du Toits River. He plunges his hand into the clear, cold water and pulls out a gadget that resembles a mini-rocket. The device is a sensor that quantifies the volume of water flowing in the river over time. The Du Toits is one of seven priority watersheds for the Greater Cape Town Water Fund (GCTWF), which was launched by The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and the city government in 2018. In his role as manager of science and monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) for TNC in South Africa, Richard is looking for proof that the work of a broad set of GCTWF partners is achieving results.

The stakes are extraordinarily high. With climate change driving longer droughts in this semiarid region, the city faced running out of water the same year that the GCTWF was launched, a chilling possibility that was dubbed “Day Zero.” The city’s stressed water supply is sourced from one of the planet’s rarest and most biodiverse floristic regions: About 70% of the over 9,500 plant species—called fynbos—are found nowhere on Earth but a sliver of South Africa.

Research leads the way

TNC-led analysis showed that we could reclaim 55 billion liters of water annually by removing massive infestations of water-guzzling invasive pines. Crews of people hired from local communities previously cleared 32,347 hectares and have repeated the process on 25,124 of those to keep the pines from taking root again. Richard led a team of specialists to design a rigorous system to track what happens when the pines are gone. “The MEL system enables our team to learn and adapt to achieve our targets,” he explains. As a result, we have scientific proof that the GCTWF is increasing streamflow by a whopping 34%, adding 17.6 billion liters—7,000 Olympic-sized pools!—to the city’s water supply each year.

“With more water now reaching rivers, particularly during the summer baseflows, we are seeing benefits to the aquatic habitat for threatened and endemic Breede River redfin and giant redfin, as well as other underwater critters,” he says. “And we’re seeing healthy rivers and beautiful fynbos return to cleared areas.”

Proof builds momentum

The GCTWF positioned TNC to establish a full-fledged South Africa program with a growing portfolio of freshwater, terrestrial, and ocean projects. The GCTWF proof of impact has also helped spread the water fund model across Africa from just two in 2020 to 17 now underway, most of which are led by inspired partners. “The GCTWF provides evidence that sustained investment in MEL is critically important. It tells a story that would otherwise be hidden and makes our impact tangible and lasting,” says Richard.

Dive In!

A new short film by freshwater scientist and filmmaker Jeremy Shelton celebrates overlooked biodiversity in the Greater Cape Town region’s rivers through underwater videography and cool animations. Watch at nature.org/RiverFlows.