Punting Strategy @ Randwick, Saturday, 20th July 2019

Race 1; 8,3,7,4

The first race of the day and we kick off with the 2YO’s. The rail is wide, and we will know relatively early on if there is any type of bias. I didn’t expect War Baron to be double figure odds, and for me he represents the best value in the race. He was well backed in early markets on Wednesday last week before being scratched, so there is confidence about him. He’s stayed at 1200m at both runs this preparation and was surging to the line late last start behind Exceed The Stars. He gets a slight weight swing on Mandela for that effort and can finish over the top of them. Mandela should have won his first race start when he resented the whip, but I would suggest the market has overreacted. His trial win since was superb and he is a promising youngster. Starla was well backed first up and didn’t have much luck. She will be more competitive over 1400m with better luck. Havin’ Fun was strong when winning last start through the same race as Starla. The second horse won at Warwick Farm on Wednesday and this filly will be more than competitive.

 Suggested bet; Each-way War Baron

 Race 2; 2,5,4,1

There is always plenty of speed engaged in these highways and all should get their chance. Siege Warfare based on the SP profile alone looks over the odds. He comes through a good form race at Wyong behind Sir Elton and then was extraordinarily backed to win a C3 Highway last start. He had absolutely no luck there and can be forgiven. The blinkers go on for the first time and he will be right in the finish. Healing Hands looks a horse on the up and has trialled brilliantly. Greg Ryan should find a good spot behind the speed and he looks the hardest to beat (just slightly unders for me). Mr Wong was another well backed when 1100m – 1400m last start but was slightly disappointing. Freshened up, back in distance, and has trialled well since. Irish Songs started favourite in a couple of recent Highways and can improve back on the drier surface.

 Suggested bet; Each-way Siege Warfare

 Race 3; 3,5,6,8

This is a cracking race with some promising horses, none more than Sir Elton. He was great winning a strong form race at Wyong and then couldn’t cross at Randwick, but still proved a mile too good on a heavy surface. He tackles 1200m for the first time which doesn’t look an issue. He’s the one to beat! Stella Sea Sun seems to me, the horse that the market has overlooked. She was very strong when winning last start over Cyber Intervention (2nd behind Curragh last week) and Watchdog (won at Warwick Farm on Wednesday). She will stalk the lead and represents value. Haut Brion Her was impressive winning first up over Wimlah (also won at Warwick Farm on Wednesday) and she looks progressive. Blake Shinn rides her over Misteed (only speculation) who can bounce back but finds a strong race. Cracking race!

 Suggested bet; Win Stella Sea Sun

 Race 4; 1,9,7,6

Slow Burn is the value bet of the day for me! She wasn’t beaten far in a BM94 behind Passage Of Time and has since trialled lovely, twice. The claim for Chris Williams is a good one getting her under 60kg in a BM78 and if she’s anywhere near her best, she should be winning. I thought High Low Bet may have needed a mile last start at Warwick Farm but she won well after being strongly backed. Back to 1400m here is a tick. Judge Judi was saved from Wednesday after a strong first up win (second horse Nuke has run well since). She’s unbeaten second up and will be right in the finish. Velocita didn’t have the best of luck first up but still sprinted quickly at the 300m. The winner was too good for her there, but she can only improve on that effort. She’s a false favourite for me, but can win.

 Suggested bet; Win Slow Burn

 Race 5; 1,6,4,3

Nice little middle-distance event here with a few winning chances. Dylan’s Romance should set up a strong enough speed and I thought that Mask Of Time could get a nice trail and prove hard to get past. He will appreciate coming back in grade and the 2nd to Fifty Stars in the G2 Ajax, or 4th in the G3 Doncaster Prelude suggest that he’s the best horse in the race. He was good after travelling wide in QLD last start and has since trialled nicely. He can win. Attorney has won both his Australian starts and has done so in impressive fashion. He does go from a midweek BM74 to an open handicap and there doesn’t seem to be much meet on the bone with him for us Punters. Wu Gok was well backed last start and proved too strong after not having the best of luck in the straight. Harper’s Choice is ticking over nicely and will enjoy the extra distance.

 Suggested bet; Win Mask Of Time, something on Harper’s Choice.

Race 6; 2,1,5,8

Not sure if Monsieur Sisu (dual acceptor) gets a run here or decides later in the day is a better option, the decision will affect the speed of the race. He should be included if he decides to have a crack here. Loveisili looks the best bet of the day to me. She was beaten in her Australian debut by Angel Of Heaven (since 4th in the G1 QLD Oaks) but has won three since. Her last start win was her best, she drew wide and went back, circled the field and it was never in doubt. She gave weight there to Kaapfever (7.5kg) who has since won both Saturday and Wednesday metropolitan races. She maps perfectly and I wouldn’t be concerned about the 5 weeks between runs. Dr Drill is the one to beat after going down narrowly in stronger grade. He will make his own luck on the speed and prove hard to get past. Toryjoy just kept kicking last start and her late sectionals there were strong. She is now a very consistent mare. Costello could improve sharply now and has won both second up starts.

 Suggested bet; Win Loveisili

 Quaddie; 1,2,5,8

 Race 7; 4,8,2,5

I really like Sweet Deal here after a small stint in QLD. Her trial before that was brilliant, she was backed at odds to win the G2 Dane Ripper (ran well) and then had no luck behind Smartedge last start who she gets a weight swing on. Blake Shinn in the saddle and she will make her own luck just behind the speed. Ljunberg is flying and got a well-deserved win last start. He darted through along the fence there and will be hard to beat once again. Smartedge won well at Eagle Farm last start and wasn’t beaten far in a Magic Millions Cup behind Redouble, so he’s good enough. Notation is a mare that is absolutely flying but tackles stronger grade for the first time. She’ll run well.

 Suggested bet; Each-way Sweet Deal

 Quaddie; 2,4,5,8

 Race 8; 10,5,2,9

Travancore is absolutely flying for Clare Cunningham. He was seriously well backed when winning at Canterbury and then put in the best final 600m of the race last start when he got too far back. Collett will find a better spot on him here and the mile looks ideal. Condor lacked zip when back in trip last start off a strong first up win. He will prove hard to get past now that he’s at a suitable distance. Monsieur Sisu has been flying on wet tracks but he’s more than a one trick pony. If he’s here, he’s sure to run well. Zavance is absolutely flying and run well in a strong race last start behind Baccarat Baby in QLD. Wasn’t having much luck in Sydney prior to that.

 Suggested bet; Win Travancore

 Quaddie; 2,5,9,10

 Race 9; 12,9,11,5

Natalia was strong winning first up at Gosford (held up, gapped them!) and then was backed as if she was unbeatable last start, but just ran into a fitter filly. She can stalk the speed and will prove hard to beat. Don’t Leave Me Out has form around Tonsor from last preparation which looks good enough for this. He’s trialled really nicely twice and can win. Power Command doesn’t like it heavy and she improved sharply last start behind November Man on a drier surface. She’ll be running on. King’s Bay has been off the scene for a while but both his trials have been sound. Stable change and Collett in the saddle is enough for me to keep him safe.

 Suggested bet; Win Natalia

 Quaddie; 5,9,11,12

Happy hunting!

BJ