Punjab Rains, Fruit Exports, KSA Hub Refinery, Bajaur Bombing, NA Dissolution, China Rains, Global Rice Outlook.

Note: Please fill out this Feedback Form to help improve the PAR News Bulletin. Continue reading to stay on par!

TOPLINE

• PMD data shows that 12 out of 16 major cities in Punjab experienced above-normal rainfall in July. River Indus is experiencing a medium flood in the Guddu-Sukkur Reach with a rising trend. Rivers Sutlej at Sulemanki, Ravi in Balloki-Sidhnai, and Kabul at Nowshera are flowing in low flood. Rivers Jhelum and Chenab are discharging normal flows.
• Rs 10.13 billion was the export value of fruits in June 2023, up 3.56% compared to Rs 9.78 billion in June 2022.
• Pakistan is in advanced negotiations with Saudi Arabia to establish a refinery in Balochistan with a capacity to process 0.3 million barrels per day. The MoU signing took place last week with four state-owned enterprises signing.
• A suicide bomber targeted a political rally of the conservative Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) party in northwestern Pakistan's Bajaur district, killing at least 44 people and injuring nearly 200.
• The National Assembly would be dissolved before August 12 in consultation with allied parties, PM Sharif said.
• Thousands of people were evacuated from Beijing and another northern city as storm Doksuri brought torrential rain to much of China. The deadly storm, which hit the Philippines as a typhoon before reaching China.
• Pakistan managed to export 3.717 million tonnes of rice and earned $2.149 billion in FY23. Additionally, the UAE has imposed a four-month ban on rice exports and re-exports, including of Indian origin. Prices of rice exported from Vietnam and Thailand have reached their highest levels in over a decade due to India's export restrictions.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Fruit Exports: Rs 10.13 billion was the export value of fruits in June 2023, up 3.56% compared to Rs 9.78 billion in June 2022, according to PBS. [ET]
• Wheat Import Shipment: The private sector in Pakistan received the first shipment of wheat imported from Russia at the Karachi port on Sunday. The imported wheat is priced at $279 per metric ton, and it is expected to bring down the ex-mill price to Rs 92 per kg. This move comes as a response to the wheat shortage and flour crisis in Pakistan, prompting the government to start importing wheat from Russia after a Russian ship carrying 50,000 tonnes of wheat arrived at Gwadar Port in March. [BR] [DP] [MM] [ARY] [Dawn]
• Pakistan's Rice Sector Overcomes Adversity: Pakistan managed to export 3.717 million tonnes of rice and earned $2.149 billion in FY23. The rice sector exhibited remarkable resilience, even though production decreased by over 34%, with exports falling from 4.8 million tonnes in the previous year to 6 million tonnes in FY23. Basmati rice varieties accounted for 595,120 tonnes, earning $650,423, while non-basmati varieties reached 3.122 million tonnes, earning $1.498 billion. This is despite facing significant challenges such as production losses due to floods, currency fluctuations, tough competition from India, high freight charges, and vessel unavailability. [Dawn]
• First International Food & Agriculture Exhibition in Karachi: Over 130 Chinese entrepreneurs will take part in FoodAg 2023, the first international food and agriculture exhibition in Karachi from August 10 to 12. The event, organized by TDAP, focuses on "A Sustainable Future," aiming to bring together international and local communities for a common future. The participation reflects an overwhelming response, with 130 Chinese businessmen already registered with the Pakistan embassy and TDAP. [BR]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Punjab's Rainfall: 12 Major Cities Exceed Normal Levels in July - PMD data shows that 12 out of 16 major cities in Punjab experienced above-normal rainfall in July. Bahawalpur received 157% more rain than normal, while Bahawalnagar, Islamabad, Sargodha, and Sialkot received less rain than average. After three years of below-normal rainfall, Punjab has witnessed a surge in rains this season, while Balochistan and Sindh experienced heavy rains last year. [BR]
• Nine Points Blocked on Karakoram Highway: Flash floods and mudslides caused by heavy rainfall have blocked the Karakoram Highway (KKH) at several locations in Gilgit-Baltistan. The KKH was blocked in the Gandalo area near Goharabad village, with nine different points affected within a 1.5-kilometre stretch. [Dawn] [ET]
• IRSA Water Release: 443,700 cusecs of water was released from various reservoir stations on Sunday, data shows. [ET]
• Rivers Flowing in Low Flood: As of the latest report on Sunday, the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) has noted that the River Indus is experiencing a medium flood in the Guddu-Sukkur Reach with a rising trend. However, it is in a low flood situation at four locations (Tarbela-Kalabagh-Chashma-Taunsa). Rivers Sutlej at Head Sulemanki, Ravi in Balloki-Sidhnai Reach, and Kabul at Nowshera are flowing in low flood. Rivers Jhelum and Chenab are discharging normal flows. [BR]
• Threats to Cultivable Lands in Punjab: 56% of Punjab's area is under cultivation, but soil quality has been severely degraded by human activities like waste disposal and industrial discharges. The Punjab State of Environment Report 2022 highlights issues such as salinity, water logging, and overgrazing, rendering some lands unfit for cultivation. [BR]
• Natural Gas Shortfall: Pakistan's agriculture sector is facing a crisis due to a shortage of natural gas, leading to a shortfall of urea fertilizer. The country's low domestic production capacity and reliance on natural gas, which accounts for 70-80% of urea production costs, have exacerbated the problem, prompting fears about persistent urea shortages. [The News]
• LPG Distributors Strike: The LPG Distributors Association announced a countrywide strike to protest against the price hike of LPG. The strike will involve a four-hour closure of shops on Monday and a complete two-day strike on August 5 and 6 across the country. The per kilo LPG price was announced by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) as Rs 177 as of July 1, 2023, with the 11.8-kilogramme cylinder priced at Rs 2,092.13. [ET] [PO]
• Pakistan-KSA Refinery Talks: Pakistan is in advanced negotiations with Saudi Arabia to establish a refinery in Balochistan with a capacity to process 0.3 million barrels per day. The signing of a MoU for the Greenfield Refinery Project took place on Thursday, involving four state-run companies: Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Government Holdings Private Limited (GHPL). The negotiations are close to reaching their final stages. [The News]
• OCAC Requests HSD Price Increase: Pakistan's oil industry has requested the regulator to increase the price of high-speed diesel (HSD) by Rs 10-12 per liter for the first half of August. The Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) stated that it is facing significant losses due to higher import costs and lower domestic prices, and they want the diesel price to reflect the actual premium of $11.50 per barrel on the latest cargo imported by PSO. [Dawn] [The News] [Geo]
• Gwadar Coal Plant Gets Green Light: NEPRA has approved a levelised tariff of 7.78 cents (Rs 22.34) per unit for a 300MW Gwadar coal-based power plant under CPEC. The project will be operational in three years, with an 85% plant availability. This decision came just before the visit of the Chinese vice premier, and the project has faced challenges since 2017, initially being replaced with a solar power plant by the PTI government. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [ET] [DT] [The News] [Geo] [AN]
• Advance Tax at Green Leaf Threshing (GLT) Plants: Implementing an advance tax at green leaf threshing (GLT) plants instead of manufacturing and retail levels could yield Rs 240 billion in revenue, combating illicit cigarette trade. With 10 GLT plants in Pakistan, collecting an advance tax of Rs 390 per kg at the threshing stage can curb tax evasion by manufacturers. [The News] [PO]
• Import/Export Control Amendment Bill: The Senate Standing Committee on Commerce unanimously approved "The Imports and Exports (Control) (Amendment) Bill 2023", allowing for one-time relaxation of import/export-related prohibitions and restrictions. The bill proposes to transfer the powers to grant one-time relaxation from the federal government to the Federal Minister for Commerce, aiming to improve administrative efficiency. [BR]
• Shehbaz Inaugurates 1,263 MW Plant: Prime Minister Sharif inaugurated several development projects in Punjab, including a 1,263 megawatts thermal power plant in Jhang, capable of generating 10 billion inexpensive units annually. The premier also launched other projects, such as the Rs 50 billion Medical City, Rs 52 billion National Health Support Programme, and Rs 30 billion Population Welfare Programme. [ET] [APP]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• Deadly Suicide Attack at JUI-F Rally in Bajaur: A suicide bomber targeted a political rally of the conservative Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) party in northwestern Pakistan's Bajaur district, killing at least 44 people and injuring nearly 200. The blast occurred on Sunday, and several senior party leaders were present on the stage when the bomber detonated his explosives. Although there was no immediate claim of responsibility, provincial police indicated that the ISIL (ISIS) group might be behind the attack, and investigations are ongoing. [ET] [Al Jazeera]? [The Guardian] [Reuters] [HT] [Mint] [TOI] [ANI] [WION] [Sky News]
• National Assembly Dissolution by August 12: PM Shehbaz Sharif announced that the National Assembly would be dissolved before August 12 in consultation with allied parties. He mentioned that the Election Commission would set a date for the next elections, with the decision on the caretaker prime minister to be made in consultation with the leader of the opposition and PML N leader Nawaz Sharif. [The News]
• Pakistan's Debt Rollover Agreement with China: Ishaq Dar announced that China has rolled over $2.4 billion in debt for the next two years for the Karachi Nuclear Power Projects. The Chinese EXIM Bank agreed to extend the principal amounts of certain loans due in the next two fiscal years: US$1.2 billion in FY 2023-24 and US$1.2 billion in FY 2024-25. [The News]
• Pakistan's Foreign Exchange Reserves Decline: Pakistan's State Bank reported a decline in foreign exchange reserves by $541 million to $8.186 billion in the week ending July 21, due to external debt repayments. The total liquid foreign reserves, including commercial banks, stood at $13.534 billion. [The News]
• Chashma Nuclear Power Project Approved by ECNEC: The ECNEC chaired by Ishaq Dar approved development projects worth approximately Rs 1.2 trillion. This includes the "Chashma Nuclear Power Project Unit-5 (C-5)" by Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), with an estimated cost of Rs 1.047 trillion, funded by Chinese credit supply (Rs 820.74 billion) and foreign exchange component (Rs 187.10 billion) to set up a 1,200 MW capacity nuclear power plant in Mianwali. [The News]
• 50/50 Funding for Rawalpindi–Kahuta Road Project: The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) approved eight development projects worth approximately Rs 1.22 trillion on Thursday. One of the projects approved is the "Dualisation of Rawalpindi–Kahuta road (28.4kms) including 4-lane bridge over Sihala Railway pass, Sinhala bypass, and Kahuta bypass" at a revised cost of Rs 23,545.021 million, to be financed on a 50/50 basis by the federal and provincial governments. [BR]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• China's High-Risk Areas Under Threat: Tens of thousands of people were evacuated from high-risk areas in Beijing and another northern city as storm Doksuri brought torrential rain to much of China. The deadly storm, which hit the Philippines as a typhoon before reaching China, has caused drenching rainfall, raising concerns over floods, river swelling, mudslides, and landslides in the affected regions. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [Al Jazeera] [The Guardian] [Gulf News] [CNN] [The News] [Bloomberg]
• UAE Requires Export Permit Amid Indian Ban: The United Arab Emirates has imposed a four-month ban on rice exports and re-exports, including rice of Indian origin. The ban covers all varieties of rice, and companies seeking to export or re-export rice must obtain an export permit from the UAE's ministry of economy. The decision comes after India's government halted exports of non-basmati white and broken rice due to rising prices and crop damage caused by heavy monsoon rains. The UAE imports 90% of its food. [BR] [Al Arabiya] [The National]
• Vietnam & Thailand's Rice Hits Decade-High: Prices of rice exported from Vietnam and Thailand have reached their highest levels in over a decade as India's export restrictions raised concerns about the staple's supply. India, responsible for 40% of global rice exports, halted its largest export category last week to stabilize domestic prices, which had surged due to adverse weather affecting production. Vietnam's 5% broken rice prices reached $550-$575 per metric ton, the highest since 2011, up from $515-$525 a week ago. [BR] [DEM] [Economic Times]
• African Leaders Call for Ukraine Peace & Grain Exports: African leaders pressed Russian President Vladimir Putin to implement their peace plan for ending the Ukraine war and to renew a deal on Ukrainian grain exports that Moscow had terminated. During the summit, the leaders expressed more forceful and concerted interventions than before, emphasizing the depth of African concern over the war's consequences, including rising food prices, and called for immediate action to address the disruptions in energy and grain supplies. [BR] [Reuters] [Al Arabiya]
• Ecowas Crisis Talks Over Niger Coup Situation in Abuja: West African leaders have threatened military action against Niger's junta, which took power in a coup last week. They demand the reinstatement of President Mohamed Bazoum, held by the junta. The situation has triggered crisis talks by Ecowas leaders in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, while coup supporters protested outside the French embassy. [BBC] [Reuters] [Al Jazeera]
• Moscow Drone Strike: Russia's Defence Ministry reported that it intercepted three Ukrainian drones attempting to strike Moscow on Sunday, in the second such attack within a week. The attack caused minor damage to two office buildings in the Moskva-City business district, and one of the damaged buildings housed three Russian government ministries and residential apartments. [Dawn] [ET] [Al Jazeera] [Reuters] [France 24] [CNN] [BBC] [EN]
• G20 Ministers Face Challenges Ahead of COP28: Environment ministers from the G20 nations were unable to reach an agreement on crucial issues to address the global climate crisis at their meeting in India on Friday. There was no consensus on peaking global emissions by 2025 and tripling renewable energy use, among other key points, ahead of the COP28 climate talks. [BR] [Al Jazeera] [Phys.org] [Reuters] [France 24] [EN] [The National] [Inventiva]
• Fed's Basel III Finalization Faces Dissent in Governing Body: Members of the US Federal Reserve's governing body expressed disagreements over proposed changes to banking rules in a rare open meeting on Thursday. The proposals include increased capital requirements for large and mid-sized banks and changes to risk measurement. These changes are part of finalizing the Basel III agreement, developed in response to the financial crisis, with modifications made following the March 2023 banking crisis, according to the Fed's statement. [BR] [Barron’s] [Risk.net] [IFLR]
• Brent & WTI Crude Poised for 3.6% Weekly Increase: Oil prices are poised for a fifth consecutive week of gains as healthy demand and supply cuts fuel optimism among investors. Growing expectations of central banks like the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank nearing the end of policy tightening campaigns, along with supply cuts from the OPEC+ alliance, have bolstered global growth outlook and energy demand. Both Brent and WTI crude oil benchmarks are on track for around a 3.6% weekly increase, with Brent expected to gain 12% and WTI 13% for the month. By 1:25 p.m. EDT (1725 GMT), Brent crude had slipped 14 cents to $84.10 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 24 cents to $79.85 a barrel. [BR]
• Malaysian Palm Oil Futures Decline: Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Friday and posted a weekly decline, dragged by a stronger ringgit and weakness in rival edible oils. The benchmark palm oil contract for October delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 23 ringgit, or 0.57% to 4,003 ringgit ($879.20) at the closing price. [BR]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Chinese Vice Premier's Visit Sparks Hope for Speedy CPEC Progress. [BR] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [ET] [DT] [AN] [Geo] [The News]
• PIA's Frozen Bank Accounts Unlocked: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) restored the frozen bank accounts of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) on Thursday, after resolving their issues over non-payment of taxes. PIA has faced financial difficulties due to mismanagement, rising costs, and fuel prices, and compliance issues. [The News]
• K-P Government Aims to Streamline Access to Birth & Death Certificates. [ET]
• Opinion: Power sector remains Pakistan’s Achilles heel - “Disturbingly while the IMF engaged with all national parties on the SBA it failed to engage with economists/financial and power sector experts or the general consumers for their input in formulating a plan that minimizes the onus of passing on the buck to the paying consumers, especially with inflation a high of 28%, and focusing on improving sectoral performance.” - By Anjum Ibrahim [BR]