Pump it up !
Joris Bastien
Alpha Engines for #HNWI, #familyoffice, #hedgefund and RIA portfolios . Focus on macro and digital spaces. Stoic Epicurean (!) Atomist believing in duty. Fine art photographer.
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Looking forward to see many of you at either meeting, and I thank you for your continued support !
GEOPOLITICS
Terror attack on a concert hall in Moscow last Friday:
The verbal escalation is continuing:
Meanwhile, the United States called on Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries. Discontent is growing in the White House as oil prices have risen by about 15% already YTD, to $85 per barrel.
Drone war is becoming a reality:
Ukraine has become a testing ground for all kinds of weapons. Drones, but also hypersonic missiles reaching Kyiv from Russia in less than 3 minutes, not giving the time for alert systems to warns civilians.
Nobody trusts MSM: according to a Gallup poll, trust in MSM collapses.
MSM still doubles down on every narrative though. Go figure ...
One concerning poll
Veteran pollster Rasmussen surveyed a group of Americans, or the elite 1% earlier this year, and discovered a startling number who say it’s OK to win an election by cheating.
The elite 1%—individuals who make over $150,000 a year, live in densely populated areas, and have postgraduate degrees—are overwhelmingly liberal. They give President Joe Biden an 82% approval rating, compared to his 40% average from the rest of Americans.
I guess they're not so much interested in saving democracy after all, as long as their side wins.
Among all Americans, just 7% said they would want their candidate to win by cheating. Another proof if necessary there is now 2 Americas.
ECONOMY
The stock market was expected to encounter a reality check with the Fed's interest rate forecast update, with Powell giving his remarks on the FOMC meeting in the context of inflation on the rise again.
As expected, the Fed decided to hold interest rates at 5.25-5.5%.
Despite now only 3 expected rate cuts in 2024 (down from 6 in January), the market cheered about the reaffirmation that 3 rate cuts are still projected this year.
A sense of relief that push Equity markets to new all time highs.
Debt
The current admin announced its budget previsions for the next 10 years, and the spending spree is not slowing down.
The net interest on the federal debt would average $760 per month for each American household over the next 10 years.
The debt would then reach roughly $370,000 per household in the fiscal year 2034. In 2034, the service of the debt would be 25% greater than what is spent on the department of defense (it already passed the defense budget recently).
The socialization of the US is on fast track with now the percentage of the economy running through the Federal government reaching nearly 25%.
领英推荐
Inflation
Obviously, such a budget will have dramatic consequences on inflation.
Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 840% (7.8% per year) after adjusting for inflation. And this my friend is why you can not sit in cash and need to invest.
At least 23.98% of your wealth has been invisibly seized by the government since Jan 2020.
Americans are maxing out their credit card debt, that is currently rising faster than it was prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Meanwhile, the US house just passed a $1.2 TRILLION spending bill (with thousands of pages delivered at 2am). At the current pace, the US deficit for this fiscal year will cross $3 trillion, nearly double the $1.6 trillion deficit that Congress estimated.
The US debt is still growing at a $1T per 100 days ... This is $10 billion per day, and we will likely see US debt hit $36 trillion this year.
Just another $1+ trillion added to the inflationary fire. Money printers will soon have to be working overtime to pay for this.
Banks - CRE
EVs are a failure and are simply not selling
In other economic news
MARKETS
Jay Powell gave the green light for another push to new all time highs (see above) -> Stocks UP, Gold UP
The US$ was not impressed though and is calling Powell’s bluff
Stock markets are overvalued
In other words: the S&P500 volatility is compressed, and we have the ingredients for a perfect calm before the storm.
Meanwhile Cocoa is still shooting to the moon, and is a significant return driver for CTAs
It's only Monday, let's make this week count !
See you next week !!!
#quantaraxia #money #management #investing #markets #hedgefunds #business #entrepreneurship
Alpha Engines for #HNWI, #familyoffice, #hedgefund and RIA portfolios . Focus on macro and digital spaces. Stoic Epicurean (!) Atomist believing in duty. Fine art photographer.
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Alpha Engines for #HNWI, #familyoffice, #hedgefund and RIA portfolios . Focus on macro and digital spaces. Stoic Epicurean (!) Atomist believing in duty. Fine art photographer.
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