Public Transit: What did we learn in 2017?

I’ve mentioned to colleagues that I believe the past five years of transportation has seen more change than the past 15 and that pace is likely going to continue in 2018. That said, I thought I’d share a few relevant discussions from 2017 that I believe will inform a few of the important trends in new year.

In terms of technology, there’s alot happening. To name a few, the growing North American interest in Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and better fare payment options are among the topics that caught my attention. But the rapid advancements in electric vehicles and the race towards autonomous vehicles are on the minds of many transit agency leaders as well. The former potentially changing the economics of fuel costs and the latter changing the equation on labor costs altogether.

Despite these advancements, we should not be naive to believe technology will solve all underlying challenges in the industry. No technology will resolve the policy and land-use decisions that setup transit systems to fail, which is a good segue to the first topic.

The Underlying Factors for Success

In October, we held the Remix Conference in Atlanta adjacent to the APTA Expo, which was the right setting to have an honest conversation about what factors enable transit to work and what do not. We were pleased to host Yonah Freemark who has conducted extensive research on recent trends in many US cities and the findings are stark. If you’re thinking about your agency and ways to improve, it’s an important presentation (see below).

For example, Seattle has currently received great press on its recent increasing ridership trends, bucking most of the national average. This certainly is supported by strong job growth. However, the unique factor is Seattle’s commitment to investing in transit and environs that enable transit to succeed.

Some of the key takeaways from the presentation include:

1. Everyone is worried about declining ridership and it’s not random, there are clear factors at play.
2. Declining ridership creates a vicious cycle. Its critical to find a way to stop the spiral, using the levers your community is best suited to fight.
3. We should always seek ways to change the economics of transit. Constant increases in vehicle capacity supply delivers the opposite effect on demand for transit.

Transit Vehicle Technology

To provide a sense of the expediency of both of theses topics, Shenzhen, China converted their entire bus fleet (16,000+ vehicles) to 100% electric within the last few months. Second, RTC in Las Vegas, NV partnered to launch their own autonomous transit vehicle along Fremont Street in November. This is just the start. Both of these trends will have significant impacts on the industry and how public transit is delivered in the very near future.

If you’re thinking about either of these topics in 2018, we hosted two events that are worth a view. Our panelists were selected because they’ve made progress in exploring or piloting one or both of these concepts for themselves and wanted to share their stories.

How will Autonomous Vehicles Change Public Transit

Autonomous vehicles is probably the most discussed topic in mobility (I don’t count hyperloop). We were pleased to host this webinar focused on how the technology may influence the public transit industry in upcoming year.

• Matching autonomous transit’s current characteristics (slower, controlled) can be a good fit for first/last mile options connecting destinations with transit.
• While there is rapid advancement, numerous factors still slow deployment (state and federal regulation, labor interests, insurance)
• There are great opportunities for autonomous technology to enhance transit opportunities, but if left unchecked and unguided, a congested future with single (and zero) -occupancy vehicles could also be a reality.

Planning for Electric Buses

Small electric transit vehicles have existed in the United States for many years (Chattanooga, Santa Barbara) Yet, advancements in battery technology have brought a resurgence of new opportunities for those interested in changing the energy equation for powering fleets without diesel or natural gas. Some key factors to consider before one makes the jump:

• Matching vehicle performance with line characteristics is critical. Existing lines may or may not be good candidates for electric vehicles due to their range and charging cadence (overnight, on-route).
• New vehicles bring new funding opportunities and payment considerations (e.g., battery leasing vs. paying for fuel, grants for electric infrastructure)
• Successful adoption and rollout requires strong buy-in and training from maintenance crews (new procedures) and operators (different feel when driving).

As Yogi Berri said, “it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” and that’s especially true in transportation. I'm looking forward to what the new year will bring. What trends do you expect to see grow or decline in 2018?