For public transit policymakers and mobility operators, now's the decisive moment

As cities reopen, we are witnessing modal share shifts, with riders sticking with what they perceive as safer forms of mobility—private cars and bikes. It’s time for public transit officials and private operators to take action.

By Jo?l Hazan, Julien Bert, Augustin K. Wegscheider, Markus Hagenmaier, Benjamin Fassenot, and Ugo Deschamps.

The COVID-19 outbreak and accompanying lockdowns brought urban mobility demand to an unprecedented near-standstill. Now that cities are emerging from lockdown, people are shifting from public transit to alternative, apparently less risky, mobility modes. Public transit authorities and urban mobility operators in general are wondering: will ridership return to pre-COVID levels? 

Our recent article (How COVID-19 Will Shape Urban Mobility) described consumer behavior and attitudes about urban mobility in the COVID-19 era, based on a survey of 5,000 residents of major cities around the world.  We found that as businesses begin to reopen, urban dwellers are reluctant to return to public transit and, to a lesser extent, shared mobility modes, despite stringent sanitization efforts. For now, at least, consumers are seeking safety in the privacy of their own car, bike—or walk. 

Forecasting the recovery of demand is tough, but it’s absolutely essential for public transit and private mobility operators alike in order for them to make sound decisions, plan their priorities, and keep their offerings viable. So how will consumer preferences play out over time, as business activity picks up but while the COVID-19 threat persists? To find out, we analyzed data from multiple sources, including StreetLight Data (which tracks vehicle miles traveled data in real time), synthesizing it with our survey findings. Overall, we determined that in the 12 to 18 months following lockdown—and absent widely available treatment—most cities will experience a surge in private car and bike use and a corresponding decrease in public transit ridership.

Different Cityscapes, Different Impacts Over Time

But we can’t truly grasp the impact of shifting demand without considering the nature of a city’s landscape and its modal mix in normal times, and the dynamics of that mix as the recovery period unfolds. Examining these factors can help public transit policymakers and private mobility operators develop more targeted strategies early on to combat riders’ trepidation and avert a permanent return to traffic congestion and worsening air quality.

To clarify the picture, we identified three broad categories of major urban centers. Public Transit Metropolises (examples: New York, Paris, Madrid, and Beijing) are generally densely populated cities with well-developed public transit networks. In Bike-Friendly Burgs (such as Amsterdam, Copenhagen, and some smaller Belgian and German cities), bikes are a leading and well-established mobility mode. Car-Centric Cities include places like Los Angeles and other large, sprawling North American cities, where automobiles have historically prevailed.  

Using the pre-COVID period as a baseline, we identified the share of urban miles traveled that each mode represented in each city category.  We then modeled different scenarios to project how the mix of mobility modes would evolve over three distinct post-lockdown phases:

• Phase 1 (immediate post-lockdown), when most businesses partially re-open and social distancing stays in effect.
• Phase 2, when businesses are fully operating but sanitary measures and social distancing limit complete reopenings as well as events and gatherings at pre-COVID-19 levels.
• Phase 3, some 12-18 months after re-opening, before a vaccine is available, when demand has largely recovered but COVID-19 hasn’t yet been conquered. (The sustained reduction in international tourism and continuation of remote working for many will account for the less-than-total recovery in demand.)

The Outlook for Recovery

In Phase 1, some mobility modes will rebound, and overall demand will likely reach 35% to 40% of pre-COVID levels. (See Exhibit 1.) Generally, public transit will be operating on reduced schedules and with some station closures. Social distancing requirements will restrict passenger capacity in subways and buses.

The cities whose public transit systems will be hardest hit by the surge in private car use (and to a lesser extent, bikes) are the Public Transit Metropolises. They stand to lose up to 10 percentage points of urban miles traveled compared to normal times. Private car miles in these cities will increase by 5% to 10% of their pre-COVID-19 levels, growing from a 30% share to between 35% and 40% of miles traveled by all modes combined.

As Exhibit 2 shows, in Phase 1, public transit will only reach between 15% and 20% of its pre-COVID-19 demand level. Private cars will hit 40% of their pre-COVID level in Public Transit Metropolises. Bikes will be the fastest gainers, reaching 75% of their pre-COVID level. (See Exhibit 2.)

By Phase 2, public transit will still lag in its recovery relative to other modes, reaching only 50% of its pre-COVID levels. Even by Phase 3, it is projected to reach only 75% to 80% of its pre-COVID level.

What are public transit’s prospects in the other city landscapes? In Bike-Friendly Burgs, COVID’s impact on all modes, both near term and medium term, will be more muted. Still, public transit could cede up to 5 percentage points of urban miles traveled to private cars and bikes. Car-Centric Cities, in which public transit represents only 5% of miles traveled in normal times, will see up to a 2 percentage-point decline—still enough to potentially affect its viability and public support.

For a complete picture of how the modal demand mix will evolve throughout the three city types, please see our slideshare deck.

A Moment of Truth for Public and Private Operators

The surge in private mobility poses two fundamental challenges to cities. A rise in private car use will cause a corresponding surge in congestion and emissions, reversing years of significant improvement. To bring riders back, cities must pull out the stops to assure public safety. They can do this by reinforcing the sanitization measures instituted early on in the pandemic. Ongoing communications campaigns that tout these measures can garner public support and restore confidence. But these measures will cost—at a time when public transit revenues have already been seriously squeezed.

Beyond containing the rise in private car usage downtown, cities need to support the growing legions of bike riders by establishing dedicated bike lanes and making other accommodations. In the near term, bikes are helping to alleviate the capacity constraints public transit systems face.  But they are more than a temporary tactical solution; bikes are a desirable mode of city-center travel, and the COVID recovery presents a unique opportunity to solidify their role.

Private mobility operators face a moment of truth, as well. After years of innovation and dynamic growth, the new mobility industry (in particular, shared mobility providers) faces unprecedented financial pressures that have already led to massive layoffs and consolidation. As new investment shrinks, these companies will have to navigate an environment of highly uncertain demand. The time is ripe for real dialogue and collaboration between cities and private operators to develop sustainable mobility models that benefit the majority. The private operators that seek such partnerships (and not just growth) will be the ultimate winners.

As the pandemic unfolds, there are many unknowns about mobility demand: waves of new cases may precipitate fresh lockdowns to some degree (as is happening in parts of the US), and people’s fears about their safety may abate if they become inured to the threat. But these uncertainties don’t justify inaction. A wait-and-see attitude could have long-lasting repercussions.

The infrastructure and policy decisions are not ambiguous, but they are crucial—and urgent. Leaders of public transit and private mobility who make these decisions now can make a long-term difference, for themselves and for society, at a time when the public is primed to change habits.