Protecting Agricultural Land: Unlocking Spatial Insights for Better Planning

The South African Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act of 2013 (Act 16 of 2013), known as SPLUMA, has driven urban development and land management to levels nearing dogma or a belief system for the past decade. However, the application of the Act has often leaned towards spatial planning based on conjecture rather than concrete facts.

This article deals with the impact of urban expansion and its impact on agricultural land under the widespread assumption that urban expansion negatively impacts agriculture. In this regard, Section 7(b)(ii) of SPLUMA emphasises the need to protect "prime and unique agricultural land" under the sustainability principle, but it does so without clear definitions or data-backed reasoning. Our immediate response is to ask what the facts tell us.

Let's delve into the importance of adopting a fact-based approach over planning or management by conjecture, focusing on protecting agricultural land in South Africa.

South Africa's Agricultural Potential

South Africa is not blessed with abundant high-potential agricultural land. In fact, only about 26.38% of South Africa's total land area is considered arable, and roughly 1.9 million hectares (1.53%) is considered high-potential arable land. More than 50% of total arable land has only a marginal potential for land cultivation.

These figures, though, don't account for land already occupied by other uses such as urban built-up areas, ming land, road reserves and other infrastructure. Other factors, such as market access and local topography, are very practical considerations. For example, the Easter Cape, often presented as an area with high agricultural potential, arable land is fragmented and most often inaccessible due to topographical considerations. To grasp the situation better, consider the figure below and the following table, which shows the agricultural potential of South Africa.

Potential versus Actual Agricultural Use of Land

Interestingly, as of 2018, only 41.7% of arable land in South Africa was under cultivation, a decrease from 43.9% in 1990. While dryland cultivation decreased significantly over this period, land under irrigation saw a substantial 332.2% increase, amounting to 792,151 hectares. However, irrigated land accounts for a mere 0.84% of South Africa's total land area. Here's a closer look at the numbers:

The Impact of Urban Development

Over the past three decades, urban development in South Africa has increased, with the urban footprint growing from 2.03% of all land in 1990 to 2.29% (2.811 million hectares) in 2018. This represents a 12.5% increase, while the population grew by 44.8% during the same period. This implies higher population densities in urban areas and more compact settlements. If we account for all built-up surfaces and road reserves, the total urban footprint reached 2.9% in 2018.

The Net Economic Impact of Land and Agricultural Production

Let's address a crucial question: Does urban expansion threaten food security, as implied in SPLUMA? The data suggests otherwise. When we analyse economic data and relate it to land data, we find that agricultural production in South Africa has increased significantly. From 1993 to 2018, agricultural production surged from R62?768 million to R112 097 million at constant prices. This marks a 78.6% increase in the real value of agricultural production. Even more intriguing, the output per hectare of cultivated land rose from R4?416 per hectare to R8?288, a remarkable increase of 87.7%. Despite a population growth of 44.9% over the same period, agricultural production per capita increased from R1?578 to R1 947 per capita in real terms.

Where to Next?

In light of these findings, it's clear that urban expansion has had a marginal impact over the past 30 years, and its effect on agriculture is negligible. This assessment raises questions about some provisions in SPLUMA. Is it necessary to elevate what appears to be an insignificant issue to the level of a principle or dogma without establishing the facts?

This assessment underscores the importance of avoiding planning or management by conjecture and highlights the need to understand the data and its implications before embarking on visionary planning based on half-truths. A fact-based approach should guide our decisions for effective land management and urban development. The time may be right to interrogate the facts and expose the relevance or irrelevance of the dogma or belief systems embedded in SPLUMA.

At Spatial Data Services Africa NPC, our commitment to making data more accessible and understandable for planners remains steadfast. As a non-profit organisation dedicated to data, data systems, and enhancing planning capacity, we aim to bridge the gap between data and its practical use in municipal planning. Our mission is to empower governments to make informed decisions promoting spatial transformation and uplifting marginalised communities. We invite you to join us on this transformative journey towards a better future.