Prospects for a solar revolution in Africa

Africa's vast rural areas face the threat of drought and flooding, pests and disease. And a white, solar-powered, mobile cooler that can extend the shelf life of food and thus alleviate the food crisis has been seen everywhere in Africa lately. This is a microcosm of the solar revolution that is sweeping the continent.

With demand for electricity soaring and the cost of solar panels falling rapidly, the continent is tipped for a solar revolution. 2023 saw a record number of solar panels installed in Africa.

Currently, South Africa and Egypt have the largest installed solar capacity, followed by Algeria, with much of it driven by private investment. Globally, most solar installations are carried out by utilities. In Africa, however, 65% of new capacity in the past two years has been generated through direct contracts between large companies and developers.

In Nigeria, gasoline subsidies were phased out last year to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy. Distributed renewable energy companies create almost as many jobs as the entire oil and gas industry combined. British oil giant Shell, which has had a major presence in Nigeria since 1937, recently acquired Daystar Power, a startup that outfits numerous large domestic companies with solar power systems. In South Africa, the cost of solar panels has fallen by 15% between 2019 and 2023, compared to the 2010s when it had already fallen by almost 90%. The country's solar power capacity has almost tripled in the past two years. South Africa's national power utility Eskom, the country's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has put forward a $10 billion (￡7.4 billion) plan to shut down the vast majority of its coal-fired power stations by 2050, and Eskom claims that a widespread rollout of solar energy infrastructure could lead to more than 300,000 jobs in the country. It is estimated that more than 400 million Africans currently receive electricity from domestic solar systems. From 2016 to 2020, there will be more than 10 times as many solar-based mini-grids as in the previous five years.

Realistic barriers Despite the many benefits of bringing solar energy to Africa, there are a number of barriers that need to be cleared before its full potential can be realized. Many parts of Africa lack a reliable and extensive power grid, making it difficult to connect solar energy to the grid. South Africa averages around 2,500 hours of sunshine per year, compared to 1,500 hours in the UK, but due to the poor state of the country's infrastructure and a lack of investment, power outages occur frequently. And to upgrade the country's grid could cost more than $35 billion over the next 15 years. Political instability and conflict in certain regions can also disrupt solar power projects and discourage long-term investment.The Desert Power initiative, launched in 2018, plans to deploy 10 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 11 countries by 2030, giving some 250 million people access to electricity through grid or off-grid solutions. The initial phase of the project focuses on Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal. It has been touted as one of the world's most ambitious energy projects, but the semi-arid belt of the Sahara Desert has become a volatile coup zone in recent years, with all of the countries mentioned above having recently experienced military coups. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel region accounted for nearly half of all deaths from terrorist attacks worldwide in 2023, with 1,900 reported in Burkina Faso alone. And the Sahel has one of the highest levels of sun exposure. Turning potential into reality has always been a challenge.