Prospects of Return to JCPOA: Dim, not Dead

Prospects for the revival of the JCPoA amid a public uprising seem dimmer than ever but still show a few vital signs. At the same time, the Nezam keeps up its rhetoric of “not needing” the JCPoA and relying on the country’s missile achievements. In their Friday sermons, the imams referred to the JCPoA as a failure and heralded the advent of a “post-JCPoA era”; however, such “revolutionary” views do not represent all principlists.

Ahmad Bakhshayesh-Ardestani, a principlist former MP who served on the Majles national security committee, admitted it was a bad decision to postpone the nuclear agreement and that anticipation of “Europe’s harsh winter” and President Biden’s weaker position after the U.S. midterms were miscalculations. He noted that it would have been “better” to have reached an agreement before the outbreak of social unrest in Iran. While he still hoped that a harsh European winter would serve Iran’s interests, he did not completely rule out the likelihood of reaching a deal. Pointing to the rising FOREX rate as a key indicator of economic stability, he noted that on the one hand it enhances the West’s leverage in negotiations and, on the other, fuels the protests by diminishing people’s purchasing power. The reformist outlet Donya-e-Eqtesad argues that the hardline Ra’isi administration’s motives for reviving the JCPoA are little more than a means to promote the overarching policy of the “look to the East,” particularly the expansion of cooperation with China. Donya-e-Eqtesad’s analysis implies that the Nezam has reached an understanding that it needs the nuclear deal to set the stage for China’s investment in Iran and to ramp up oil sales to the Chinese. Aligning with the same logic, former IRGC man turned reformist analyst Hosein Ala’i-Karahrudi made a distinction between the government and the people of Iran in terms of benefiting from the possible nuclear deal, pointing to social unrest in Iran as a dominant factor influencing the political behavior of the U.S. vis-à-vis the JCPoA. “Even though the JCPoA is not the desired agreement for Iran’s government, in the short term it benefits the Iranian people,” he pointed out. The principlist Hamshahri daily outlined the West’s concern about Iran’s deepening relations with Russia and Russia’s potential for supporting Iran’s nuclear program, claiming it as the driving force to bring the West back to the negotiating table.

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