The prospect of a Trump victory plays heavily on EU minds - Doherty

In Brussels, Donald Trump is on everyone’s mind.

With the US election almost upon us, the potential for Trump to return to the White House is one that could have huge consequences for Europe and how the EU acts in the world.

Nowhere is this more real than in relation to Ukraine.

In this context, this week, the European Parliament approved up to €35 billion in additional money to Ukraine, backed by Russian assets. The money is the EU’s part of a G7 package to provide up to €45 billion in financial support to Ukraine.

As a new MEP, I have come to appreciate more than ever how life looks on the EU’s eastern borders. My colleagues, from all political backgrounds, who lived for years under Russian dominance, are extremely concerned about where Russia’s expansionist ambitions will impact next. There is unwavering and overwhelming support for Ukraine in its battle to preserve its sovereignty but Europe’s domestic capacity to support Kyiv is limited without strong American support. In short, EU countries have come to understand the limits of their defensive capabilities.

The occupant of the Oval Office helps to set the global political temperature. Since the Second World War, most of Western Europe, and Europe more broadly after 1990, operated under the belief that defence could be staffed out to our American allies, as the global police force.

Now the threat of US financial support for Ukraine being reduced or removed entirely under a Trump presidency is real. And right now there is very little that EU capitals can do about it.

Another Trump victory would galvanise EU efforts to reduce overreliance on US economic and security architecture. The widespread view is that a Trump win would signal an American desire to withdraw further from its historic role as the global police officer and economic superpower, with its commitment to NATO in particular cast into doubt. Furthermore, Trump’s fascination with strongmen dictators like Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, and Hungary’s Victor Orban could even represent a security threat to Europe more broadly.

In this context, Europe would be lonely and exposed. Economically under pressure from rising economies, politically challenged by new powers like China that seek to rewrite the global political order, and with little or no integrated defence capabilities due to decades of US reliance, EU countries of all sizes are talking seriously about working together on defence matters for the first time.

Investing in defence and security is not always about preparing for war; in many cases, it is an investment in preserving a carefully balanced peace. Over the last 10 years, Russia and China have increased their defence budgets by nearly 300% and 600% respectively. In contrast, the figure for the EU Member States collectively is 20%.

For Ireland, there will be important questions to be asked. We are clearly militarily neutral, though not politically neutral as our support for Ukraine and other global causes has shown. Nevertheless, we must acknowledge that new global realities create new causes for action.

Positive work is underway, with Ireland’s defence budget due to rise to €1.5 billion by 2028, and increased funding and staff approved for Ireland’s National Cyber Security Centre. However, we need to go further.

Reversing the decline in defence forces personnel, updating equipment, taking part in joint-procurement schemes at an EU level, investing properly in cybersecurity, developing a National Security Council, creating a Central Intelligence Unit, spending more on defence both current and capital - these ambitions should all be part of Ireland’s response.

Irish support for Ukraine and its people has been steadfast. This will not change. If the US decides that it no longer wishes to play a part in the defence of democracy and Ukrainian sovereignty, then Ireland as well as other European countries, will have to ask what more we can do.

As the 5th of November draws closer, and the news agenda focuses more and more on the ups and downs of what is already an extremely ugly election campaign, the reality is that the outcome will have a significant impact on Europe, no matter which candidate wins. While much less is known about Kamala Harris in comparison (though we have a better idea of whom she would appoint to her cabinet), in terms of global security, climate action, transatlantic relations, and the defence of democracy across the world, a Harris win would be more warmly welcomed in Brussels.

As the American presidential election candidates compete over an ever-smaller number of swing voters, EU Member States, including Ireland, are watching nervously.