New World: Propaganda Attacks, Influence Operations, and What Can The World/Singapore Learn From India?

CxO Brief: Dated March 7, 2022, Updated March 16, 2022

Warning: Given the sensitivity around the razor-sharp content language, article requires un-emotional, un-biased, non-nationalist, and neutral reading. You are warned.

Backgrounder

Propaganda is increasingly defining our world - and potentially may shape even the world of our next generation.

It is a conventional wisdom that the geopolitical propaganda attacks are usually targetted against a geopolitical rival. Arguably, USA faced world's first high-intensity propaganda attacks (from Russia) during her presidential elections in 2016. India has been on the receiving end of low-intensity propaganda attacks from her geopolitical rivals for years.

But something very different is happening this time around in India.

From the time Russia-Ukraine conflict started to take serious shape - sometime in February 2022 - India started to face propaganda attacks from Russia - a nation that calls India her long-standing geopolitical friend. Attacks are to influence Indian citizens to apply pressure on the Government of India to favour Russia against the West/USA. Attacks started to intensify from around Feb 24, 2022 - the day Russia invaded Ukraine. These high intensity propaganda attacks are still ongoing - though one is seeing some slow down over the last 24 hours (weekend and ageing effect?].

I alerted about these propaganda attacks very early on - as they were gathering pace: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/nagpalnaren_russiaukraine-propaganda-attack-activity-6903190768559771648-x6q0

Interestingly, PRC and USA are also very active in India now, effective Feb 24, with respective Influence Operations - PRC content is against the West/USA, and America's content is in favour of the West/USA.

I decided to do an extensive deep-dive field trip, and to actively insert myself deep within, to better understand the ground realities first-hand, and to learn from it. This is my field report.

[Note: Even Singapore is facing some of these attacks and foreign influence operations - from PRC and Russia - with the narrative that spreads hate against the West/USA and promotes racial affinity and civilisation exceptionalism - but that would be a separate article.]

Propaganda Mechanism

Most propaganda follows a simple mechanism. Attackers pick a topic which is highly emotional for the largest segment of the population. They then pick a verifiable but narrowly defined incident or data or item that exploits the ignorance of the population - but which supports the chosen emotional topic. They then weave it with the actual agenda of the propaganda - with lots of false/misinformation/fake/ disinformation/raw-emotional content - sometime explicit and sometime implicit. This is then released out to the unsuspecting population - reinforcing their biases, enhancing their fears, amplifying their hate, and so on. Message is then made viral on various channels by the propaganda armies - constitution of which varies.

Success of every propaganda campaign proves one thing - that the common-sense really isn't common!

The Propaganda Attack

From what I have first-hand received, seen, and reviewed so far, propaganda items (hundreds of them) broadly fall in the following categories:

1. USA is highly unreliable geopolitical partner of India. Russia on the other hand is a very reliable partner. Incidents picked to propagate this messaging are India-Pakistan War, positioning of American 7th Fleet against India, Weak support by USA and Russian supply of S-400 during the recent China conflict, use of past UN Vetos by Russia in favour of India, etc. [Fact: Some truth, lots of falsification, plus emotions - weaponised to favour Russia. Fact is, times have changed and so are India's national interests - India's geopolitical positioning is very different today].
2. West/USA is racist. Non-whites have always been unfairly treated by the West/USA. It is time Putin teaches them a lesson. India would do great service to the humanity by supporting Putin. [Fact: Some truth for sure. Class, inequality, race, mistreatment, and bias are weaved in this messaging - a potent combination with high emotional connect with the Indian population].
3. Ukraine is India's enemy - it has always voted against India in United Nations. Russia has always supported India - including using Vetos in UNSC against West/USA resolutions. [Fact: Some facts, lots of falsification, plus emotions are weaponised against Ukraine. Fact is India has very friendly relationship with Ukraine and had/has 18,000/10,000 students there].
4. Ukraine has taken hostage of Indian students and using it to blackmail India. Ukrainian forces have kicked and punched Indian students. But Russia has finally helped liberate and return them to India. [Fact: Indian government has released a communique to firmly deny this. Not just that, India has in fact soured on Russia - see references below].
5. This war is West/USA's fault - if NATO had not expanded eastwards, this War would not have happened. Multiple versions, including those from various American scholars and senior professors, have been circulated. [Fact: "Rape is women's fault because she wore clothes that attracted such a response" kind of reasoning. Utter nonsense. Fact is, in 2013-14, in a public uprising, Ukrainians overthrew their previous Russia-supported puppet government, and voted-in a new EU/NATO inclined democratic government. Bit of history here is in order: Boris Yeltsin announced in 1993 that Russia had no objection to Poland joining NATO. Given that bigger NATO means more unwieldy NATO, even Putin in 2002 said "no tragedy" that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are becoming NATO members].
6. Ukraine Ambassador has threatened India in United National General Assembly. [Fact: It was an appeal during the UN speech - to support Ukraine's cause - specially to those countries who were expected to be "neutral"].
7. Whataboutism: USA/West has always invaded other countries - but Russia and China never do so. [Fact: Totally false. Anyone can easily google and find out the long list of invasions and annexations by these two countries. Amusing that this is being said when Russian invasion of Ukraine is still ongoing].
8. Russia is a major super power. It is best for India to side with them. [Fact: Russian economy has shrunk over 30% under USA sanctions, from 2014 when it was USD 2.2T (year Putin became the President for the 3rd time) to just 1.54T in 2020. Latest global Sanctions have the potential to make Russia irrelevant in the world order, if not for oil and defence equipments].
9. Where was the world when West/USA invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria? [Fact: Some truth in this - even though these were legitimised by the UN. But it is also a fact that this Russian invasion of Ukraine is much more consequential. Putin's threat of nuclear arms proves the point.].
10. Why did the West/USA resisted to take refugees in above and middle east crises? How come they are able to take all the Ukrainian refugees now without any conditions? [Fact: Lots of truth in this].
11. "White", "Civilised", "Christian", "Blue-eyed", and "Blonde hair" reporting by the Western media is racist and propagandist. [Fact: One can hardly deny this. Sadly, this messaging has high emotional connect].
12. This War is caused by the West/USA by design - they want to sell defence equipments and ammo. But Russia is exposing them. [Fact: West/USA's main weapon against Russia has been Sanctions - and remains so to this day. Sadly, this messaging still has high emotional connect].
13. Hyper nationalism and angry resentment: India is a great civilisation - and it must stand-up to the pressure from West/USA. West/USA is evil. [This message has very high emotional connect - hyper nationalism and young population with hardly any knowledge of the complexities of today's geopolitics - and we have a deadly combination].
14. Supporting strongman Putin is same as supporting Modi [Fact: False. But content has high emotional connect with the Indian youth, given Putin's cultivated "macho" persona and Modi's popularity].
15. Despite guaranteeing Ukraine in 1994 when it agreed to give-up all nuclear arms - USA and UK aren't actively helping Ukraine in fight against Russia (Russia was the 3rd party that had guaranteed). West is untrustworthy. India should stand by Russia. [Fact: Exploitation of irrationality of humans. But do read my reminders below].
16. Why has West/USA hasn't Sanctioned Russian oil and gas as yet? They are untrustworthy and ineffective. Russia is trustworthy and powerful. [Fact: Some truth. But do read my reminders below].
17. I have even encountered cross-border propaganda videos released against the West/USA from Hongkong/PRC, doing rounds in India. One was using Julian Assange incident [Fact: Video was done on one of the largest Hongkong media house branding - it was to arouse hate against the West/USA. Factually incorrect, video content was aggressively spun to achieve its hate objective].
18. Russia is right in attacking Ukraine, to defend its national interests, because potential of nato joining presented a real threat. [Fact: When China attacked India in June 2020, in response to India participating in a joint naval exercise with USA/Australia in South China Sea, Indians fumed. Irony seems to have lost on them, that they are now supporting such an attack.]
19. Americans are cow-boys when it comes to their own national interests [Fact: True. Do read my reminders below].
20. The list goes on...but I am sure readers would get the drift of the seriousness of what's happening.

The Reality

1. First a simple analysis: One could logically and convincingly argue that if the Russia had won the war quickly, easily, and outright, it would have strengthened both Russia and PRC immensely - increasing the risk for India very significantly. But now on the other hand, because of the fierce, brave, effective, and continued fighting by the Ukrainians against significantly more powerful Russians, global Sanctions led by the USA and EU would continue to be broadened - thereby weakening Russia - weakening its importance in PRC's camp - improving India's leverage on Russia - thereby strengthening India's geopolitical position in the world. Ironically, weakened and dependent Russia is also in the best interest of PRC, which shares long border with her. PRC wins either way - however weakened Russia, logically, is a much better outcome for her. Russia's weakening would also help USA remain focused on Indo-Pacific theatre - helping India. Fact is, Putin has already lost this war, on all objective parameters - it's now on the "ego patch".
2. India is world's largest liberal democracy.
3. India is also having world's largest youngest population in a liberal democracy. Like everywhere else in the world, nationalist fervors are currently at an all time high.
4. India is in the midst of a very sensitive state election season. One could say that the very future of new India is being decided, and the population is very charged and divided. Nationalist fervors are being actively fanned by the political parties.
5. New India has already committed itself to the Quad - a strategic alliance of USA, India, Japan, and Australia - to help maintain the international rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. PRC has opposed the QUAD formation - comparing it with the NATO.
6. India is critically dependent on Russia for both its defence and energy needs. Arguably, one can say that she is "strategically cornered" - a blunder of the past.
7. India is currently in the midst of an ongoing border conflict with PRC.
8. India remains critically dependent on Russia for its defence needs - however buying has continuously been reduced in the recent past from 65-70% to todays' approx 49%. The share of Russian equipment with the Indian Army however is still a whopping 90 per cent,?as per US-based think tank Stimson Center. Up to 70 per cent?of the Indian Air Force’s fighter planes are of Russian-origin. Current tense situation on India-China border, with a powerful but hostile neighbour who is strategic no-limit partner of Russia, immensely complicates India's geopolitical situation.
9. Given the poor performance of Russian defence hardware in Ukraine, one can safely assume Indian defence purchases from other sources - like USA, Israel, France etc - to increase even further and even faster - moving forward.
10. India has 20,000 citizens in Ukraine and 30,000 in Russia.
11. Russia has recently committed to a "strategic 5,000-words no-limits relationship" with PRC - India's powerful neighbour and the most serious geopolitical rival.
12. Russia has publicly started courting Pakistan - India's arch enemy.
13. In 1991, on USSR's collapse, more than 90% of electorate voted for Ukraine's independence.
14. In 1994, Russia provided the security guarantee to Ukraine, along with USA and UK, in response to Ukraine destroying all its nuclear arsenal - one of the largest in the world at that time.
15. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the breach of UN charter and international laws. Ironically, Russia, being the veto-powered permanent member of UNSC, is expected to uphold the UN Charter and international laws.
16. Israel is in the same predicament as India - having close friendships with both the USA and Russia. Ultimately though, Israel became the co-sponsor of the UNGA resolution. UAE supported it. Israel has also offered to mediate in the conflict.

The Outcome

From what I have seen and discussed with many across India, the ongoing propaganda attack has been quite successful. India's population has largely been compromised. It is surprising to see even the Indian intellectuals have fallen for these simple narratives in very large numbers. Ultimately, this does have an impact on geopolitical manoeuvring of a liberal democratic nation - potentially even harming its national interests. Luckily for India and Indians, Indian government (like that of Israel) has managed its very delicate and highly nuanced positioning very well so far - in favour of India's own national interests - despite tremendous pressure from both the Russia and USA/West. It seems significant part of Western and USA policy makers have understood India's predicament (like that of Israel), and are willing to give her time and elbow room to manoeuvre. India's position, like that of Israel, may significantly change if the situation escalates and human costs rise in Ukraine.

Having said this, India surely needs to work on improving its international communication, and management of the world opinion.

Actors & Their Playgrounds

Clearly, not all propaganda attacks have originated from the Russian sources - significant number have PRC fingerprints - specially those that are against the West/USA. Interestingly, even American actors are now undertaking Influence Operations in India - trying to arouse Indian people and pressure the GoI to support the West/USA and denounce Putin even more aggressively than already done by India. All parties are involving "members of the think tanks", "defence analysts", "Russian doctrine influenced and funded policy research fellows in Delhi", "newspaper columnists", "foreign policy experts", "defence policy experts", "professors", "book authors", "self-appointed nationalist TV anchors", and the likes. It is indeed an all out propaganda war!

Interestingly, even the respectable senior ex-Indian defence officials have been roped in by channels, to reinforce respective positioning. Many of these "experts" have past/present ties with - Russian defence suppliers, defence middle men, or with the joint-venture public sector defence manufacturing partners in India.

Irrespective, I must qualify that the attribution in the information & cyber warfare remains a challenging task.

Online media and Indian TV have been the main channels used to distribute propaganda content - one can clearly see certain Indian TV channels are fully dedicated in favour of Putin/Russia. Their ownership structures hint about their political motivations.

WhatsApp, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter are the front-running online channels in the dissemination of propaganda content.

Content has been distributed in English, Hindi, and regional languages for mass consumption across India.

The Lessons

1. Legal framework: It is very important for countries to have a strong legal framework in place to manage and control foreign influence.
2. Education: Regular citizen sensitisation programs against propaganda - a government and private sector initiative - is a necessity in this new world.
3. Proactive and integrated communication/content management: Almost every country now needs its own state apparatus to educate and propagate its own agendas to its population - and to the world - proactively. Reminder - cyber space has no country boundaries. One of the effective methods to blunt the propaganda is to use the strategy of "information transparency" - sharing of the information with the public immediately - even before the propaganda narrative gets formed. USA is effectively deploying this method against Russia, in ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
4. Defend: It is difficult to control propaganda - in open and liberal democracies - more so in a very large one - in this new world - without a well established homeland security group actively defending national security interests.
5. Control: It has become imperative for countries to have a legal framework in place to control the online media - with well defined control levels that are aligned to the risk levels.
6. Attack / Counter narrative: It is important for every country to have their own propaganda armies - both defensive and offensive. First, to minimise the impact of propaganda attacks, and second to spread its own narrative. One need not see far to appreciate immense benefits of narrative management.
7. This attack once again is a big reminder. Just like in case of the USA in 2016 - effective propaganda can have dire consequences for the country - more so for an open liberal democratic one - because of propaganda's target on raw human emotions, biases, fear, hate, race, inequality, fault-lines, human flaws, etc.

I would now like to leave you with the following reminders:

"Truth Is The First Casualty Of Propaganda."

"Nations Do Not Have Human Values. They Have National Interests."

"In Geopolitics, There Are No Permanent Friends or Foes. Only National Interests Are Permanent."

"In Geopolitics, More Often Than Not, One Is Forced To Choose Between The Bad and The Worse."

"Success of every propaganda campaign proves one thing - that common sense really isn't common, ignorance is!"

"Success of every propaganda campaign proves - emotions score over evidence!"

"Propaganda Game Is A Never Ending Game, And So Countries Need To Play It 24x7x365."

Thanks for reading! This article is written "to share the knowledge, discuss, and learn" without any hidden agendas. So, please please do not try to read in between the lines, or to connect the dots where none exists. Please do share your thoughts in the Comments.

Who paid for this report? In today's world, every e-business needs an Advisor with the deep understanding of technology, business, and emerging geopolitics - closely working along side business executives. This is where Naren provides his professional expertise. You can contact him for any such advisory services.

References:

1. China Warns U.S. Against Forming Pacific NATO [Aukus/Quad] and Backing Taiwan, Bloomberg March 7, 2022 [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/china-urges-world-not-to-add-fuel-to-fire-in-war-in-ukraine]
2. After rebuffing US at UNSC, Israel set to back General Assembly vote slamming Russia, Times of Israel, Feb 28, 2022 [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/china-urges-world-not-to-add-fuel-to-fire-in-war-in-ukraine]

3. UN votes overwhelmingly to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calls for withdrawal, The Guardian - March 3, 2022 [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/united-nations-russia-ukraine-vote]

4. U.N. General Assembly in historic vote denounces Russia over Ukraine invasion: Reuters - March 3, 2022 [https://www.reuters.com/world/un-general-assembly-set-censure-russia-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-03-02/]

5. NATO was no trigger for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, The Australian - March 3, 2022 [https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/nato-was-no-trigger-for-putins-invasion-of-ukraine/news-story/5c7ef9d01fc865e21f6093a17b097b0b]

6. Analysis of The UNGA Voting Pattern [https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/nagpalnaren_newworld-ukraine-un-activity-6905047949412323328-S3N1]

7. Analysis Of The Invasion Impact [https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/nagpalnaren_india-usa-ukraine-activity-6904652587371761664-5NE-]

8. There’s only one person in the world now who can influence Putin, says Stephen Roach, CNBC, Mar 7, 2022 [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/stephen-roach-on-russia-china-relations-amid-ukraine-war.html]

9. Russia Is Now the World's Most-Sanctioned Nation, Bloomberg, Mar 8, 2022 [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/russia-surges-past-iran-to-become-world-s-most-sanctioned-nation]

10. Ukraine crisis: India sours on Russia amid evacuation problems, Time of India, March 8, 2022 [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-sours-on-russia-amid-evacuation-problems/articleshow/90083421.cms]

11. Defence independence: India has to reduce Russian imports, but dependency on the West no solution either, Times of India, March 8, 2022 [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/defence-independence-india-has-to-reduce-russian-imports-but-dependency-on-the-west-no-solution-either/]

12. China watches warily as Ukraine makes U.S., EU and Japan strengthen their alliance, CNBC, March 8, 2022 [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/china-watches-as-ukraine-war-makes-us-eu-and-japan-show-unity.html]

13. The Spectacular Collapse of Putin’s Disinformation Machinery, Wired, March 10, 2022 [https://www.wired.com/story/putin-collapse-disinformation-machinery-ukraine/]

14. Opinion | How Ukraine Won The #LikeWar, Politico, March 12, 2022 [https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/12/ukraine-russia-information-warfare-likewar-00016562]

15. War in Ukraine: Mixed public opinions reveal polarisation, hubris, and an empathy deficit, Academia Sg, March 13, 2022 [https://www.academia.sg/academic-views/war-in-ukraine/]

16. Why Ukraine war misinformation is so hard to police, CNN, March 15, 2022 [https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/tech/ukraine-russia-misinformation-challenges/index.html]

17. China Criticizes Foreign Media’s Use of Locals in Covid Coverage, Bloomberg, March 16, 2022 - Country that reportedly has the world's largest propaganda armies, also complains against the propaganda and foreign influence! [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/china-criticizes-foreign-media-s-use-of-locals-in-covid-coverage]

18. Me and Others 1971 USSR documentary (Eng subs) - Cognitive Biases Methods used in Propaganda [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuIXiXqv978]

End of article

Copyright: Naren Nagpal. Follow me on LinkedIn or Twitter. LinkedIn:?Follow Naren Nagpal?; Twitter: @NarenNagpal

Original copyrights and trademarks are owned by respective owners, and are acknowledged as such.

#Propaganda #Disinformation #Misinformation #FakeNews #ForeignInfluence #InfluenceOperations #India #Geopolitics #Security #NationalSecurity #Cyber #CyberRisk #Media #Social #SocialNetworks #pmoindia #nitiaayog #Economy #Singapore #IMDA #CSA #EDB #Temasek #MAS #CentralBanks #Strategy #CxO #BusinessOfTechnology