Projections vs. Reality

Well, the election is over and Trump is on his back to the White House! Thus, it's time for me to answer for predictions made. And this year, I think I will get off with a few hours of community service.

However, let me first say that not only the width but the depth of Trump's victory is quite stunning. Because, not only did he win in a smaller Electoral College landslide, but he also came, e.g., with five percent of winning states like Minnesota and New Jersey. This means that his inroads amongst blacks, Latinos, young, and maybe even women may be much bigger than the exit polls showed. So, my fellow political scientists - start digging around!

Anyhoo. About what I did get (mostly) right...

The Popular Vote I predicted Trump would win 50 % (+/- 1%) of the popular vote. And he will get around 51 %. So, I'm very happy with this one, both for personal and political reasons.

The Electoral College My last prediction in comparison with the final map also looks good. I only missed New Hampishe - and I did point out in my last assessment that that was a stretch. Hence, against my guess of 316 electoral votes, Trump ended up with 312...

The Senate I predicted that the GOP would get 53 (+/- 2) seats. And it looks like I will be pretty close on this one too. Whether it will be 51, 52, 53, or 54 depends on the final results in Pennsylvania (where there still are few uncounted votes but a probably GOP pickup) and Nevada (where there are quite a lot of unreported votes and the candidates are neck-to-neck). Arizona, unfortunately, is lost (Kari Lake is a great orator and journalist but she just doesn't seem to be able to catch fire politically with her fellow Arizonians). Under all circumstances, my guesstimate will fall within the given range.

Finally, about where I screwed up...

The House of Representatives For reasons I have so far seen or heard any real good reasons for, the Republicans had a quite bad night in the lower chamber. It does look like the GOP will be in the majority, but it will be another razor-thin one. Or, in other words, my guess on 235 (+/. 5) was off with at least ten political miles.

Anyway, please, leave comments if you want. Am encouraged to continue making election predictions like this but to improve, I need constructive critique and smart ideas on how to sharpen my poll/sociocultural-based analysis...

#election2024 #trump #harris #uspolitics #polls