PROJECTION

I post something nearly EVERY DAY. A year ago today (on a "two-word Tuesday") the post was about EVERY DAY.

I started with a Bill Gates quote:

The timing is not exact but the concept is consistent:

Statistically speaking the proper term in these quotes is not estimation (the application of results from a sample [study results] to a population [estimate of reality]) but actually PROJECTION -- predicting future results for a population upon adding assumptions and trends to the estimates.

But it sounds funny to say we overproject what will be in a year and underproject what will be in 10 years.

Having seen many projects develop over the short term and long term now it does appear to be a highly accurate quote. The initial growth of something, getting it closer and closer to JUST RIGHT, takes longer than projected to DEVELOP and BUILD UP. But once there, with the EVERY DAY effort to MAINTAIN the development and buildup, it exceeds what was projected. Looking back it seems exceptionally tough at the beginning and exceptionally successful later -- is it exceptional compared to others, or just exceptional compared to our PROJECTION?

Maybe continuing to overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term, but doing it anyway, is the secret to an EXCEPTIONAL life. If so part of the secret is to focus on the now, the EVERY DAY:

If you were expecting to read something about psychological PROJECTION (perhaps a reminder not to overestimate or underestimate the impact of our perceptions on our interpretation of reality) here is a loop to think about -- Does PROJECTION create reality or does reality create PROJECTION?