PROJECTING HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: HOLLYWOOD'S FAVORITE PASTIME
Studios and exhibitors seldom agree on anything but one topic that draws universal (pardon the pun) head-nodding is that this Holiday period is overloaded with films, both in quantity and quality. Between now and the end of the year there are no fewer than 26 wide release offerings, not to mention at least a dozen or so Oscar worthy limited run titles which will be looking to expand into the proverbial “theatre near you” prior to the end of the year.
NOVEMBER 11
ARRIVAL—Amy Adams’ sci-fi drama enjoyed positive CinemaCon buzz but that has ebbed to a murmur as of late. Tracking isn’t helping matters. OPENING-$20 MILLION/ OVERALL-$63 MILLION
ALMOST CHRISTMAS—Urban holiday comedy arrives a bit prematurely but these days the Christmas season arrives just after Arbor Day. OPENING-$16 MILLION/ OVERALL-$48 MILLION
SHUT IN—Nothing-special thriller with Naomi Watts. OPENING-$5 MILLION/ OVERALL-$12 MILLION
NOVEMBER 18
FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM—The downside-it’s not actually a Harry Potter sequel. The upside-Eddie Redmayne. OPENING-$82 MILLION/ OVERALL-$235 MILLION
BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK—3D screens open a week early but this is the first wide avail week. Like ARRIVAL this had tons of buzz months ago but Ang Lee’s desired high frame rate was ignored by all but four theaters worldwide and Oscar talk has become merely a whisper. OPENING-$11 MILLION/ OVERALL-$41 MILLION
EDGE OF SEVENTEEN—Excellent response from TIFF but most question the boxoffice prospects of a teen movie that’s rated R. OPENING-$9 MILLION/ OVERALL-$31 MILLION
BLEED FOR THIS—Are moviegoers tired of boxing movies? SOUTHPAW, CREED and HANDS OF STONE have all been released in the last twelve months. OPENING-$5 MILLION/ OVERALL-$18 MILLION
THANKSGIVING WEEK (all 3 day estimates)
MOANA—It’s Disney and it’s Thanksgiving. What could go wrong? Nothing that we see. OPENING-$62/ OVERALL-$265
BAD SANTA 2—Meanwhile back at the raunch, Broad Green may have a sleeper hit on their hands. Billy Bob Thornton hasn’t had a live action opening weekend over $10 million since 2008. This should reverse that trend. OPENING-$15 MILLION/ OVERALL-$49 MILLION
ALLIED—Not the greatest time for Brad Pitt to be doing a publicity tour for this film, especially with co-star Marion Cotillard. It was going to be a hard sell before this all happened. Now….. OPENING-$12 MILLION/ OVERALL-$41 MILLION
RULES DON’T APPLY—Warren Beatty as Howard Hughes seems like a good idea. If it’s 1986. 30 years later it’s difficult to imagine an audience for this that isn’t confined to mobility scooters. Opening-$6 MILLION/ OVERALL-$20 MILLION
DECEMBER 2
INCARNATE—As yes, the wasteland of the holidays. Nothing screams “I have nowhere else to slot this picture” than opening on December 2nd. OPENING-$4 MILLION/ OVERALL-$11 MILLION\
DECEMBER 9
OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY—Jason Bateman and Jennifer Aniston have built-in audiences and the trailer is hilarious. A sure-fire combination. OPENING-$21 MILLION/ OVERALL-$84 MILLION
DECEMBER 16
ROGUE ONE: STAR WARS—Might do okay. Just a hunch. OPENING-$150 MILLION/ OVERALL-$460 MILLION
COLLATERAL BEAUTY—Yes it’s Will Smith but it feels like another holiday downer from him. Sometimes those work (THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS) and other times they don’t (CONCUSSION, SEVEN POUNDS). Unless Will gives an Oscar worthy performance this may fall into the latter category. OPENING-$15 MILLION/ OVERALL-$55 MILLION
LA LA LAND—So far it’s the most talked about December release not named STAR WARS. A musical love letter to Los Angeles, Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone have received raves and the film is almost certain to be nominated by the Academy. Will be huge along the coasts but how it plays in Trumpland remains to be seen. OPENING-$12 MILLION/ OVERALL-$60 MILLION
THE SPACE BETWEEN US—Hard to imagine this finding an audience among the glut of high profile titles but there isn’t much that’s specifically for the young adult audience this holiday. OPENING-$9 MILLION/ OVERALL $38 MILLION
CHRISTMAS WEEK (all 3 day estimates)
PASSENGERS—Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt in outer space. There’s not much more that needs be said. OPENING-$31 MILLION/ OVERALL-$152 MILLION
SING—Animated audiences will have already seen MOANA by this point and will flock to the latest Illumination Studios offering. OPENING-$34 MILLION/ OVERALL-$198 MILLION
ASSASSIN’S CREED—Michael Fassbender is always engaging on screen and Marion Cotillard makes her second appearance this holiday season. We aren’t sure what that all means at the box office. Many others in the industry agree. OPENING-$12 MILLION/ OVERALL-$53 MILLION
WHY HIM?—On paper it looks hilarious but something doesn’t feel quite right about the James Franco/Bryan Cranston pairing. OPENING-$11 MILLION/ OVERALL-$40 MILLION
NEW YEARS WEEK (all 3 day estimates)
FENCES—Denzel Washington swings for the, umm, fences as he directs and stars in one of the most talked about films of award season. This is starting to feel like a film that garners a flock of nominations come January. OPENING-$13 MILLION/ OVERALL-$85 MILLION
GOLD—Matthew McConaughey stars in The Weinstein Company’s lone Oscar hope so expect a strong marketing and PR push. It’s hard to get too excited about the subject matter, however. “Man ventures to the Indonesian jungle in search of gold” doesn’t exactly ooze boxoffice confidence. OPENING-$5 MILLION/ OVERALL-$25 MILLION