Project Timelines Estimation: Getting Started

Estimating time accurately for a project or task is a crucial skill that requires careful consideration and experience.

Step 1: Understand Customer Requirements

• Identify all project work, including functional and non-functional requirements.
• Consider necessary activities like meetings, testing, communication, and reporting.

Step 2: Order Activities

• List tasks in the order they should occur.
• Highlight key milestones and dependencies.

Step 3: Risk Management

• Conduct a brainstorming session to identify project risks.
• List potential risks, assumptions, exceptions, and limitations.

Step 4: Make Estimates

• Use various estimation methods based on the project's context.

Estimation Methods:

1. Expert Judgement: Gather input from subject experts and reach a consensus.
2. Three-Point Estimating: Determine optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic estimates, then use a formula (O + 4M + P) / 6 to calculate a close estimate.
3. Cost of Quality: Estimate functionality development separately from bug fixing and improvements.
4. Analogous Estimation: Use past experiences to identify similar tasks and estimate based on historical data.
5. Bottom-up Estimation: Decompose the project into parts, gather expert opinions, and calculate estimates for each part.
6. Parametric Model: Build a mathematical model based on historical data and metrics to forecast estimates.

Example:

Let's say you are a project manager responsible for developing a Data Platform.

1. Optimistic Estimate (O): This is the best-case scenario where everything goes smoothly without any issues. In this example, let's assume the optimistic estimate for designing and implementing the ETL Data feature is 5 days.
2. Pessimistic Estimate (P): This is the worst-case scenario where multiple problems or delays could occur. For the user registration feature, you anticipate potential technical challenges, interface complexities, and other issues that could extend the timeline. Let's say the pessimistic estimate is 15 days.
3. Most Likely Estimate (M): This is your best educated guess based on your experience and understanding of the task. For the user registration feature, considering potential challenges and your familiarity with similar work, you estimate it will take around 8 days.

Now, let's use the formula (O + 4M + P) / 6 to calculate the weighted average estimate:

(O + 4M + P) / 6 = (5 + 4 * 8 + 15) / 6 = (5 + 32 + 15) / 6 = 52 / 6 ≈ 8.67 days

Conclusion:

• Accurate estimation is crucial for project success and client satisfaction.
• Misunderstanding requirements or unwillingness to detail can lead to inaccurate estimates.
• Estimation requires attention to detail and resources.
• Teaming up with experienced individuals and relying on historical data improves accuracy.

Remember, estimation is an ongoing process that may require adjustments as the project progresses and new information becomes available.

Reference: How to estimate time for a project/task accurately - Blog | luminousmen

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