Are Project Managers On a Verge of Extinction?
Pawe? Huryn
The Product Compass Newsletter | Actionable Insights and Resources for PMs | Join 87K+ PMs
?? Update 28th October 2022
This newsletter is not active anymore. If you want to receive free PM tips, resources, and advice biweekly, subscribe here: https://huryn.substack.com/
Of course, I'll still be using my personal LinkedIn account ( Pawe? Huryn ).
- - - - -
Recently I was asked if project management has still any value, as the world is shifting from project to the product mindset. The question concerned specifically the PMP and PRINCE2 certifications but it inspired me to think more.
First, let’s look at the modified Stancey graph. There are 3 major dimensions of complexity:
There are five possibilities:
1. Simple
The “known-knowns.” The cause-and-effect relationship is clear. There are proven solutions, best practices, or procedures that can be easily applied by anyone. An example may be brewing coffee with a coffee machine.
2. Complicated?
This is the domain of “known-unknowns.” Best solutions exist and can be rationally discovered by analyzing the cause and effect relationship and carefully planning your actions upfront. An example may be playing chess or building a house.
3. Complex?
The domain of “unknown-unknowns.” The cause-and-effect relationship can be defined retrospectively. This is when the advantages of empiricism emerge — gaining knowledge through the formulation and verification of hypotheses, progressing step by step in cycles, and adjusting the plan based on feedback. This also means trying many ideas and making some errors along the way.
领英推荐
“Scrum is founded on empiricism and lean thinking. Empiricism asserts that knowledge comes from experience and making decisions based on what is observed (…) Scrum employs an iterative, incremental approach to optimize predictability and to control risk.” — Scrum Guide 2020
The Cynefin Framework recommends a process called “probe-sense-respond.” In Scrum, it is a very similar, iterative PDCA (plan-do-check-act) process, which relies on empirical Scrum pillars of transparency, inspection, and adaptation.
4. Chaotic?
In this domain, cause and effect are unclear. It is not possible or there is no time to gain knowledge or discover patterns through experimenting. A leader must act to establish order, put out the fire, and try to move to the complex domain. An example may be investors instinctively reacting to the 9/11 attacks.
5. We don’t know?
The?Cynefin Framework?calls it “disorder.” We are not certain what kind of cause-and-effect relationship we are dealing with. It is important not to stay in your comfort zone, embrace the confusion and communicate the situation openly.
Project Management
Most of the initiatives these days lay in a complex domain, where little is known about people, technology, and requirements. Often we don’t even know what questions we should ask.
Imagine you’re Elon Musk, you’ve just started SpaceX, and your first goal is to build a reusable rocket. What are the chances you’ll get it right the first time without formulating hypotheses, running small experiments, inspecting, and adapting?
I have no doubt that traditional project management is not suitable for complex initiatives. How can anyone believe that with so many "unknown unknowns" it is possible to plan all actions in advance?
On top of that, the complexity around us is raising like never before — blockchain, NTF, AI, Big Data, hyper-automation, DAO. The world becomes increasingly more complex every day.
There are also two other issues you need to consider as a project manager:
In my opinion, only some project management techniques, such as risk management, may be useful. Others will give you an illusion of control.
Still in the project management? It's time to leave your comfort zone.
Foreword
Does this mean that planning in complex environments is impossible? On the contrary. But this is a topic for another article ;)
Certified Scrum Trainer. Agile & Lean Consultant.
2 年Unfortunately, most "project managers" army project managers, they are matrix line managers. Most "projects" aren't projects. And most people who talk about "project management" don't understand project management. Project management isn't about having a big, up front detailed plan and then trying to stick to it. That just shows misunderstanding of project management.
Head of Technology and Product @ Leaders Group
2 年Great piece! The overlap between roles continues to grow into each other.
Agile Coach at Practical agile
2 年Fully agree Pawel. It made me realize that I had to go through a transformation myself back in 2009. So what would you advise to a (Lean) organization that approaches the IT initiatives in a project fashion? They might be to small to move to funding stable teams. Could A3 be an intermediate step?
Governance, Risk, Compliance & Culture | Supervision, Relationship Management, Analytics
2 年The key factor: risk management. Otherwise it's s a chaos in the making ??
IT Management and Delivery Consultant
2 年As a former/current IT PM I cannot agree more, especially in the startup environment most of the PM practices make only a little sense and that’s why I made 2022 a year of shift for myself. We just need better communication and better understanding between both sides (meaning the team and the upper management that ?demands” to know the final date). So the Scrum values should be applied within the company, which will make it defintely easier to abandon stuff that is holding us down and givin illusion of control.