Project Management - Bermuda Triangle of delays
Rahul Apte
Innovative Digital Transformation Leader | Chief Data Officer | IT & Information Security Visionary | Lifelong Learner
Close your eyes and imagine a casino in the clouds. Project managers roll dice, invoking the spirits of randomness. “Snake eyes!” they cry, as uncertainty swirls. Will the project finish early? Or will it vanish into a Bermuda Triangle of delays?
In the dynamic world of project management, accurate estimation is crucial for successful planning and execution.
In this article let's explores various well known estimation techniques employed by project managers to gauge the delicate balance between scope, cost, and time which is very crucial.
From the simplicity of T-shirt sizing to the pragmatism of expert judgment estimating, each method offers unique insights. Let’s delve into these approaches and understand their strengths and limitations.
T-Shirt Sizing: T-shirt sizing is a relative estimation method used in agile projects. It assigns sizes (such as XS, S, M, L, XL) to tasks or user stories based on their complexity or effort.
How It Works: Team members discuss and collaboratively assign T-shirt sizes to tasks during backlog grooming or sprint planning. Sizes represent relative effort, not precise hours.
Advantages:
Limitations:
Example: Imagine a software development team estimating user stories for an upcoming sprint. They assign sizes to each story:
Use Case: Commonly used in agile methodologies.
Top-Down Estimating: This approach starts with an overall project estimate and then breaks it down into smaller components.
How It Works: Project managers estimate the total effort required for the entire project. They allocate portions of this total effort to different tasks or work packages.
Example:
A construction project manager estimates that building a new office complex will take approximately 12 months.
They then break down the project into phases (e.g., foundation, structure, interior) and allocate time estimates to each phase. ?
Bottom-Up Estimating: In this technique, each task or work package is estimated individually, and the estimates are aggregated to arrive at the project estimate.
How It Works: Project managers break down the project into smaller pieces. They estimate effort for each task and sum up the estimates.
Example:
A marketing team estimates the effort required for launching a new product:
?
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Analogous Estimating: Also known as historical estimating, this method relies on past project data to estimate the current project.
How It Works: Project managers compare the current project with similar past projects. They use historical data (such as effort, duration, or cost) to make estimates.
Example:
A software development team estimates a new mobile app project based on a similar app they developed last year.
They consider the effort, lines of code, and testing time from the previous project.?
Three-Point Estimating: A probabilistic approach that considers best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios.
How It Works: Project managers estimate using three values:
Example:
A project manager estimates the completion time for a website redesign:
The PERT formula uses the Beta distribution to calculate a weighted average of three estimates: optimistic (O), most likely (M), and pessimistic (P). The factor of 4 in the formula gives more weight to the most likely estimate (M). When plotted, the Beta distribution results in a bell-shaped curve, similar to a normal distribution as against a sharp peak, resembling a triangle in Triangular Distribution.
Beta Distribution (PERT): Use when historical data exists, and experts provide estimates. Suitable for similar projects with reliable data.
Triangular Distribution: Use when no historical data is available. Suited for judgmental estimates without a strong basis.
Parametric Estimating: This technique uses statistical relationships between variables (such as lines of code, size, or complexity) to estimate effort.
How It Works: Project managers apply mathematical models based on historical data or industry standards.
Example:
A manufacturing project estimates production time based on the number of units to be manufactured.
The model predicts that producing 100 units will take 5 days, so 500 units will take 25 days.?
Expert Judgment: Involves seeking input from experienced team members or subject matter experts.
How It Works: Experts provide estimates based on their knowledge, intuition, and expertise.
Example:
A cybersecurity project manager consults with an expert penetration tester to estimate the effort required for security testing.
The expert provides an estimate based on their knowledge and experience.?
Picture this: a seasoned project manager the captain of ship, clad in a cloak of spreadsheets, stands on the foredeck of the ship with deadlines and uncertainty. The moon is full, and the winds whisper, "Oh estimable PM, let us trim our sails, consult our charts, and navigate this project sea. If the dreaded Bermuda Triangle of Delays emerges, an enigma where tasks vanish, timelines warp, and scope creeps. We steer clear by anchoring to milestones, monitoring progress, and invoking the spirit of agility. For in these turbulent waters, we find not only challenges but also the thrill of discovery."