Progressive Slovakia narrowly wins Sep 30 elections ahead of Smer – exit polls
Metodi Tzanov
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Non-parliamentary party Progressive Slovakia wins the Saturday's early general election on a small lead over Smer-SD, two exit polls released immediately after the end of the election moratorium at 22:45 PM on Sep 30 show. According to the Focus poll carried over 20,000 respondents for TV Markiza, Progressive Slovakia wins 23.5% of the vote, thus securing 42 MPs in the 150-seat parliament. It will be narrowly followed by Smer-SD on 21.9% and 40 seats, Voice-SD, the OLaNO-led coalition, SaS, Republika and KDH. We Are Family and SNS would not make it to the parliament failing to cross the 5% electoral threshold. As indicated by pre-election polls, ethnic-Hungarian Alliance and the Democrats of ex-PM Eduard Heger would not make it to the parliament either. According to the Median poll carried out over 16,805 respondents for RTVS, PS wins 20% of the vote but its lead over Smer-SD is only 0.9pps; the same parties, but also SNS will enter the parliament. Ethnic-Hungarian Alliance is close to the 5% electoral threshold on 4.2% of the vote. Thus, PS wins 36 MPs in the 150-seat parliament, Smer-SD - 34, Voice-SD - 20, OLaNO - 17, SaS, Republika and KDH - 11 each and SNS - 9.
Note that the exit polls are much more accurate than regular opinion surveys. First, during the exit polls, the voters are asked how they voted immediately after leaving the polling stations vs. their intentions of the way they will vote in a regular poll. Second, the sample in exit polls is much bigger vs. 1,000 to 2,000 people in regular surveys. Still, even between exit polls and actual results there can be a difference as some voters may not tell the truth in exit polls. Recall that such was the case in the 2020 general election, when the exit polls indicated that the Progressive Slovakia and Together coalition would significantly cross the 7% electoral threshold for coalitions of two-to-four parties, but in the end it won only 6.96% of the vote and remained outside the parliament.
Given the results of the exit polls, the formation of a majority government coalition will not be easy. Progressive Slovakia could form a narrow majority coalition of 77 MPs in the 150-seat parliament with the other pro-West parties OLaNO, SaS and KDH, according to the Focus exit poll, but will have only 75 MPs, 1 lawmaker short of having simple majority of 76 MPs, according to the Median exit poll. However, as we have argued in our latest?ElectionWatch report , OLaNO and SaS again sitting in a government together is almost impossible scenario given the tensions and the escalation of the conflict between their leaders Igor Matovic and Richard Sulik. If OLaNO were replaced by Voice-SD in this composition, the coalition would have up to 85 votes (Focus) and 78 votes (Median); however, there would be even greater value differences between the parties than in the first case and a number of other hindrances of which we have warned before. Note that PS not considering Voice-SD preferred partner, Voice-SD's chairperson Peter Pellegrini insists on becoming next premier and admitting closer views with Smer-SD than with PS, KDH claims some of PS's programme is too radical in some parts, SaS criticises Simecka of not having experience. There are no other variants for PS-led coalition as OLaNO has refused to cooperate with Voice-SD viewing it as a satellite of Smer-SD. Therefore, Voice-SD's views will most likely be decisive of whether Slovakia will have a new majority government after the elections or new snap polls will have to be held again, probably only in the beginning of 2024.
According to the results of the exit polls, Smer-SD would not have a real chance of forming a majority government - with Voice-SD and Republika, it would have only 73 votes and 65 votes, in Focus and Median polls, respectively; however, Voice-SD categorically rejects cooperation with Republika while all the other parties (safe for SNS that will enter the parliament, according to the Median poll) also exclude Smer-SD from possible post-election cooperation.
While the parties argue, the caretaker government of Ludovit Odor will stay in office, but without the power to pass any significant reforms, including in the fiscal consolidation area, as it failed to win confidence in the parliament. This may threaten the economic stability of the country. Note that according to the budget responsibility law, if the caretaker government remains in office, it will have to prepare a balanced budget for 2024, which, according to the finance ministry's?September macroeconomic forecast ?will result in GDP contraction of 6.4% in 2024 (the budget responsibility council RRZ estimates the GDP fall at 2.9%).
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Commenting on the exit polls' results, PS chairperson Michal Simecka pointed out that they seemed hopeful but declined to jump to any conclusions yet. On his part, Voice-SD's chairperson Peter Pellegrini refused to comment on whether Voice would prefer forming a coalition with either Smer or Progressive Slovakia, underlining that the party will not join a coalition at all costs just to grab power and that it can also be a worthy opposition party. SaS chairperson Richard Sulik pointed that the prospects of a coalition including SaS were not too bleak, but refused to speculate on this any further until more solid and more reliable results were out.
Note that according to the interim unofficial election results on?https://volbysr.sk/ ?election site of the stats office, at 30.14% of confirmed district minutes, Smer-SD wins the election on 24.67% of the vote and is followed by Voice-SD on 16.72% and PS on 12.58%; SNS and Alliance also enter the parliament unlike SaS. The official results are to be made available as soon as they are approved by the State Commission for Elections and Control of Political Parties' Financing on Sunday, Oct 1.