Problem Solving Step 2 - Gather Facts and Make Assumptions

Problem Solving Process

1.     Recognize and Define the Problem.

2.      Gather Facts and Make Assumptions.

3.     Define End States and Establish Criteria.

4.     Develop Possible Solutions.

5.     Analyze and Compare Possible Solutions.

6.     Select and Implement Solution.

7.     Analyze Solution for Effectiveness.

So, you’ve got a problem to solve, and you’re certain you’ve identified the root cause. What’s next?

This is the beginning of phase two: gathering facts and making assumptions. I say it’s the beginning of phase two because this activity is ongoing throughout most of the problem-solving process. Depending on how much time you have, you may or may not get information as quickly as you’d like, and you may just have to move forward with the problem regardless. There is always risk involved with deciding how much information is enough, but there can be even more danger of entering “paralysis by analysis”. It is exactly what it sounds like, and we’ve all seen it in action – or in inaction, as the case may be. Speed matters.

If you are not certain what facts you need, start with the following questions to break your mental inertia. How much time do I have to solve this problem? If the problem is not time-sensitive, how long am I willing to tolerate it? How many resources do I generally have available? Who do I need to bring in to help solve this? Is this a problem that can be solved outright, or by stages, or can it only ever be mitigated? With the well-defined root cause in mind, hopefully these questions will get you thinking about the details of the issue, which will help you identify more specific questions.

So, list these first questions and any new questions that they inspire, and call it your first round. More questions will come up, either by inspiration or as a result of the answers to these, and so you will have more rounds of questions and answers. As I’ve said, this activity will almost always continue through the entire process. The best way to save yourself from the dreaded “paralysis by analysis” is to set an information-gathering deadline for yourself at the outset. You may not have all the facts you want, but if you have all the answers you need, then make yourself move forward with the problem solving.

This is where we identify another helpful adage: 20% of your time will be spent on 80% of your solution. 80% of your time will be spent on the last %20 of the solution. The next key question to ask is, can you get by with an 80% solution? If you are standing in the pouring rain and ten people offer you ten different-colored umbrellas, the 80% solution is to accept any of them. Continuing to stand in the rain trying to decide which color you like best is doable, but really it’s just silly, unless you enjoy getting wet. Now, not every problem is quite so easily broken down this way. Fixing 80% of four flat tires is not really very helpful, but that’s not really how this works. The 80% solution, once you’ve got some basic facts identified, most likely means getting to the closest, most reasonable tire shop and getting the most reasonable tires they have – not spending the next three hours deciding which wheels would best “pimp your ride”, but hey – everyone has their own thing.  

Okay, you’ve asked your first-round questions, and information is starting to come to you. Differentiating between fact and fiction is not too hard. Facts are readily observed and measured, fiction is everything else. You know how much time you have (or are willing to spend), you know what resources you have or can immediately acquire, and so on. Now it’s time to start making some assumptions. You may have to make assumptions about the questions that have not yet returned any facts. You may have to assume that the parts store is open on Sunday, and that they will have the part you need. (This just led to another key question: If they have to order the part, can they get it quickly enough to meet your problem-solving needs?) You may also need to assume that your neighbor/friend/brother-in-law are still available to help you, and that he really has the skills you need. A critical point to keep in mind here is that offered help is ALWAYS an assumption, NEVER a fact. This is not because everyone is dodgy, but because life happens and sometimes your helpers find themselves suddenly solving their own problems and unable to help you with yours.

Critically at all these junctions you can see that action was taken. Not just sitting around thinking about the parts store being open or that thinking hard enough someone will come and help me. Actually, moving forward in the plan and taking action is critical to all junctions of the problem-solving process. Yet, thinking is required, and action is equally if not more important.

As time goes on and facts are coming in, you hopefully are able to either slide assumptions into the fact pile or cross them off the list. In a perfect world, you are ready to move into phase three of the problem-solving process with all facts and no assumptions. This is a laudable goal but keep the 80-20 rule discussed above in mind. If the problem you are solving, perhaps an important event you are planning, is dependent on good weather, you will not have that fact until the moment of. Don’t focus on this yet; we’ll talk about Plan B (though Plan ZZ, version 7) in a future article.  The important thing to keep in mind at this point is keeping your facts separate from your assumptions, and to eliminate as many assumptions as you can within the time you have. Another problem-solving ratio applies here: The less time you have, the more assumptions you may have to carry into your solution. The more time you have, hopefully, the more facts you’re able to accumulate.

So, you’ve started your question-asking, fact-finding, and decision-making, and hopefully you are getting the answers you need. With any luck, they are also the answers you want. The next article will address phase three of the problem-solving process: defining your desired end-state. As it begins, phase three is independent of, and concurrent with, phase two.

So don’t stop asking and answering yet!