The problem is dead serious USTA, by Javier Palenque

What problem you may ask? The only one that will solve all of tennis’ foes: Participation. So, I decided to make my points through a graph that will clearly explain the core of the problem tennis faces and how the USTA is so ill-prepared to fix the problem and so burdened with “yes” people who have no idea how to tackle it. Tennis does not have a tennis problem, it has among others these myriads of serious problems:

·        Logistics

·        Generational change

·        Supply chain

·        Resource allocation

·        Poor management,

·        No vision

·        Wrong culture and people

·        Succession Planning

·        Organizational structure

·        Lack of understanding of who the customer is

·        Failed focus problem, etc.

No one at USTA is equipped to handle this quagmire of issues. No one, because if they had capable people, they would never have allowed the situation of the sport to be so dire. Therefore, it needs new people in all top positions to steer the ship before it hits the well-known iceberg or waits for the tsunami to hit it, we are at that juncture and now in addition we have a pandemic to deal with. In order to illustrate my points, let us look at the generational shift the country is heading towards, please pay attention to color shifts, which one is increasing and which one is decreasing. The way the sport is led and the way the demographics change are in opposite directions. We need to do something now, the sport cannot wait any longer.

Problem: The generations that hold tennis together are old and quickly aging out (see yellow and green colors). The generations that are going to be the largest consumer groups in the coming decades (see pink and blue colors increasing) have no interest in tennis and their numbers are so low that they can never replace the older generations’. This is what we call in business a “dire situation”. Please note that for every Baby Boomers that leaves the sport you need 15 millennials to replace him/her, and for every Gen X person that leaves the sport you need 4 millennials. At those horrific replacement rates, we would need to grow tennis among Millennials and Gen Z 19,000% to be in the same position as today. Consider that today the sport is at its weakest point ever, in other words, we need more than 19,000% to be ahead. The sport under the current Chairman and 14-year-old board member has been declining year after year for the past decade, these people focus on the wrong things and fund precisely things that will not grow tennis. If all this is too confusing think of the problem like this: The replacement ratio is 1 for 15, you need 15 millennials to replace one baby boomer. This means that unless we have 15 new players yearly in those age groups per each baby boomer that leaves the sport either to age or pickleball when those young adults are older they will have no one to play with and at the current attrition rates of the kids (75% of all participants at 14 years of age) it means we will have even fewer people who will play the sport in adulthood.

Consider that pickleball is thriving as is Cardio tennis, well, it is actually the Baby boomers ( same amount of players) moving out of tennis due to age or whatever reason if 10,000 people leave tennis, then we need 150,000 Millenials to fill the void. Now, do you understand how horrible the state of tennis is? This is called sports malpractice in any business the leadership would have been shown the door years ago. The USTA has effectively killed the sport that was entrusted to protect and grow. How is this morally acceptable? They have decreased the value of participating in tennis and managed to have the most money in all sports and have the least amount of kids in all sports. In what boardroom is this acceptable? nowhere in the business world would this be allowed, nowhere!

Facts:

-         75% of adult players in the country belong to the Baby Boomer Generation, this explains the poor social media numbers USTA has and the boom of pickleball and Cardio tennis. These people do watch TV but are aging out of the consumer market quickly. Follow the yellow color as you can see it is in steep decline. These folks know who Bjorn Borg is.

-         20% of the remaining adults belong to Gen X (me included), who have no real-time to try to fix things in the sport and are not such strong advocates given their age and low numbers to try to make improvements to how the sport is run. Follow the Green color, also in decline. Very few league players this age, we barely watch TV. Please notice that TV rights are the only source of increased income in USTA. We do know who Christ Evert is but most of us have no idea who Naomi Osaka is.

-         Millennials are the top demographic, poised to be the largest consumer base ever in the country. This group has seldom heard of tennis, much less participated in it and it is burdened with debt, changing jobs often, late to marry, lower incomes, and parents to be of the next generation. This generation has in the last decade taken two massive strikes to its future. First the 2008 housing crisis and now the 2020 pandemic crisis. Over time this generation will only grow but without tennis. These people do not know who Bjorn Borg is or Ivan Lendl or Madison Keys. This is a real problem.

-         Last, we have the Gen Z people, who by age 14, those who have tried tennis, 75% already decided to quit. Their parents are mostly Millennials (whom tennis does not reach) and have no desire to watch TV or spend countless hours learning a proper forehand. If they tried the sport once, most likely they will not try it again. This generation will also only increase significantly in numbers. The folks have never heard of Borg, Connors, or Navratilova or Serena. They heard of tennis but see no reason why to engage in it.

Summary:

Tennis is missing the target market completely, the USTA management team managed to lose two and a half generations (Millennials, Gen Z and Gen X), it has a lack of focus, lack of understanding of the sport, and now add a lack of funding to the proper sectors of the changing of America. Now with the pandemic, complete chaos will reign in the sections and home office and the USTA can not assign enough resources to fix the problem, because now it does not have them, they forgot (chose not to) to buy business interruption insurance to their only source of income ( How is this possible?). The USTA does not have good programs to fund, how else do you explain the pathetic participation numbers for the past decade? So it is drowning in its own doing and lack of competence.

To all those who disagree with me, simply compare those generation types to your situation, how many of each generation is in your clubs, programs, classes, and competitions? Where do you fit? Look around, identify the people you come across as B.B., Gen X, Millenial or Gen Z you are in for a surprise!

The tsunami is here, we need new leadership and it does not involve USTA people. They are the culprits of the state of tennis. Given all these factors, how can you seriously ask a parent to invest in the sport? with their funds and time, also how can you ask coaches to invest their careers or clubs to invest millions of dollars or entrepreneurs to hold pro events? How about asking kids to devote countless hours and homeschooling to enter a failed system that is only in steep decline? it is such a dumb system that as they enter their early adulthood, they will have no one to play against? The lack of vision of the leadership of the USTA is simply irresponsible and unethical to all stakeholders. The situation that tennis is in is simply the result of the negligence of the USTA and the lack of intelligence of its leadership to deal with the problems. The lack of diverse opinions and opposing views have made this preventable problem even worse. We cannot allow this to go on. The board and its Chairman need to step aside. We are living the results of their ineptitude. Why continue to allow them to steer the sport in the wrong direction?

I have for the past three years offered solutions, a vision, and help. The situation has solutions, unfortunately, it is not in the hands of who runs the sport it is in our hands but we need unity and we need USTA supporting the solutions, not stalling them. Maybe we can help the USTA, but what can you do if it refuses to listen, acknowledge, and care to fix the problem without their team who got us in the mess in the first place? Enough! It is time to serve the sport and stop being served by it until it dries out. We can fix this. I know-how.

I SAY NO TO INEPTITUDE AND YES TO GROWING THE GAME

I can be reached @palenquej or [email protected]