The problem with confidence

Picture the scene.

You’re a hiring manager with a job to fill. Over the course of an afternoon you meet with two prospective candidates.

Both look good on paper. Each person is given an on the spot brief to talk about why their skills match the job. You hear from both.

The first candidate requires little time to think. They launch into an eloquent spiel around their present and past company’s achievements, ensuring their own role is not understated. They eagerly list their capabilities in line with the demands of the opportunity. In many ways, they give a model answer.

The second candidate takes a bit more time to gather their thoughts. They start to answer the question in a similar format, but they are obviously more nervous. The key points are there, but muddled. They come across like an actor struggling with their lines. There’s more emphasis on the team as the process of selling themselves seems uncomfortable.

Who do you think made a better first impression?

This is a common interview scenario. It’s very natural to assume that the first candidate is the best person for the job and that might be true.

But it’s not guaranteed, by any means. Just ask anyone who has managed a candidate who interviewed exceptionally and went on to perform poorly. Or those who have experienced the opposite situation, given half the chance. If you’ve ever been sold a dream and then witnessed a very different reality, you might also be able to relate.

As a society, we place extremely high value on confidence and self-belief. We tend to think of it as the missing piece. If we can erase those niggling self-doubts that tell us we’re not good enough, the world is ours for the taking. Throughout culture, self-help, inspirational quotes and even memes, you see this metaphor play out in different ways.

Are they wrong?

Not exactly. As with the interview example, increasing your levels of confidence does tend to pay off.

People are more likely to buy from self-assured people. If you act like you fit in, people are unlikely to question whether you belong.

Psychologists will also tell you that confidence is a vital part of a well-developed personality.

So, what’s the problem?

This becomes a problem when you look at overconfidence, which comes from not understanding the limitations of your knowledge and experience. Some may know this as The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

It’s a cognitive bias which leads people to overestimate their abilities, because they lack awareness around how much there is that they do not know. This means they naturally display a large amount of confidence.

When your world places such a high value on confidence, you tend to find that more often than not, overconfident people are promoted above their level of competency.

If someone in a position of influence is willing to act without considering that their judgement may be wrong, this can have far reaching consequences. The recent saga with Fyre Festival was a tragic example of this.

The reality of the wrong people occupying high level roles also impacts other people – either in their direct chain of command, or indirectly (employees, customers, shareholders, citizens, etc.) This can be all the more frustrating for the person who feels alone in realising that this person isn’t up to the job.

“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.” — Confucius

Psychology Today named Overconfidence ‘The Mother of all Psychological biases’ because as humans, we are so vulnerable to its effects. It also suggests that the bias was responsible for (amongst other things) the global financial crash in 2008 and the disaster in Chernobyl.

Here’s the full article if you’re interested (it’s fascinating, I promise): https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/perfectly-confident/201801/overconfidence

Where do we go from here?

As with so many things, being honest with ourselves is important. Most of us have experienced overconfidence in ourselves or others, from overestimating our own driving skill, to supporting an authority figure who wasn't behaving in a reasonable or rational way.

We can start to make a positive difference by challenging the way we think, including how we perceive others and situations.

As an example, here on LinkedIn you’ll find no shortage of posts which idolise quick decision making. It’s held on a pedestal as a mark of confidence and strength. The story will usually boil down to:

“I know this stuff, why waste time? I make decisions. I act.”

What they are not doing is considering that there might be something they don’t know, or something they could learn. I think we can evolve to stop celebrating business people who think at this level. It can only do us good.

Also, if you conduct interviews – you can consider whether it’s the most confident candidate who tends to be offered the role. Then, ask yourself if that is an important attribute for the work they’ll be doing. You may find that your interview process is discounting people who can add immense value to your business because you confused their nerves or hesitation with incompetency.

For anyone trying to build on their confidence.

You have my admiration and respect. It’s not an easy thing to do and I'm not writing to say that it isn’t worth doing.

But, trying to compare yourself to someone for whom it seems effortless, who just seems to have it in abundance, would mean fighting a losing battle.

The part of you that doesn’t feel like you’re smart enough? It’s the same part that drives you forward; to develop, learn, and grow – appreciate it and nurture it. Accept that it feels uncomfortable sometimes and that that’s OK.

Then you can stop putting energy into masking feelings that will probably always be there and instead build on your expertise. The kind of expertise that builds confidence. The kind of confidence that you can really be proud of.