The Probable Outcome...

Right now, Vladimir Putin holds all the cards!

Broadly speaking, he has three options;

Option1- Move Zelenskyy and install a puppet leader

Option2- Keep Zelenskyy but abandon his NATO ambition and retain a neutral status

Option3- A direct occupation;

The third option though highly unlikely; Putin is smart enough to know the cost of occupying a country, there will be a full-blown push back, the west will likely funnel weapon and funds, so, effectively that leaves two options, which way will Vladimir Putin go?

Russia’s Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov dropped a hint today, he says zelensky is not being honest about the neutral status.

When Sergey Lavrov was asked about the Zelenskyy’s call for discussing the probable options towards neutral status, he said “last December we suggested to discuss security guarantees and Vladimir Zelenskyy was well aware of this, he didn’t wish to fulfill that obligation as much as his western patrons didn’t want to comply with the commitment contained in these words and everybody was repeatedly saying that the right to choose an alliance is sacred to defend Ukraine, so now he is lying to you, when he says that he is ready to discuss The option of Neutral Status of Ukraine.”

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So, here’s where things stand;

Putin wants to create a neutral Ukraine but not under Zelenskyy.?

He wants Kyiv to do two things;?

1. Demilitarize or dismantle their military capabilities, and
2. Become a neutral state between Russia and NATO

Zelenskyy has already said that he is ready for Talks and Putin has responded, he is open to sending a high-level delegation to Minsk.

I have to say, this does not look good for Ukraine!

Zelenskyy is losing on battlefields, no two ways about this and these losses can never be reversed at the negotiation table!

?As for Putin, he is winning on the battlefield and he will not sacrifice those wins at the negotiation table for sure,

?So whichever way you look at it, it’s a loss for Ukraine!

Chances are Putin will make humiliating demands, joining the NATO will be out of the question, of course, Ukraine’s Military may be dismantled, the constitutions may be changed, on paper, it will be neutral but effectively Ukraine will be Russia’s satellite state and this is a dangerous template!?

One cannot redraw border with force, one cannot negotiate by waging war!?

If Ukraine surrenders, if Ukraine is forced to become a neutral state, it no doubt encourage other nations, but all of this in future, for now, let’s return to the battlefield,

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In Ukraine, how will Putin wrap up this war?

Well, here’s what Ukrainian intel reports claim; this is what they believe whats going to happen;

Step 1- Russia will intensify attacks along the border, this will keep Ukrainian troops away from Kyiv towards the border.

Step 2- Russia will capture an airport near Kyiv, they have already done that and they have ticked this box, the Hostamel airport is under Russian control

Step 3- Cut electricity and create panic in Kyiv

Step 4- A cyber-attack on Ukrainian government agencies, basically to cripple their ability to communicate with the people

Step 5- Use refugees to block Highways and block access to Kyiv and keep Ukrainian troops away from Kyiv

Step 6- Capture government buildings

Step 7- Cease the leadership and force them to sign a peace deal and this peace deal could be a partition, East and West Ukraine, like East and West Germany

Having said all of this, we need to remember one thing… this is a WAR and nobody can predict if things will play out the same,

But here’s what we can,?

If Putin stays on the battlefield, he is guaranteed success and if he opts for diplomacy he may not succeed,

So why would Putin will abandon a winning position, he won’t!

Whatever happens, next will happen on Russia’s terms, on Russia’s timetable, and based on Russia’s interest, that’s for sure!

In the end, I pray for the people of Ukraine and hope they will come out of this soon!