Probability Means Never Having to Say You're Certain!
Design by K. Lehenbauer

Probability Means Never Having to Say You're Certain!

This week was a lot of fun for Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer because P-man decided to visit a few basic Probability rules and concepts - Multiplication Rule, Addition Rule, Conditional Probability, and a Contingency Table example.

Interestingly enough, some algorithmic change in the mid-week yielded a real-life illustration of probability, that we will share here:

Linked In Reactions Performance

The first post got 1491 impressions and generated 36 reactions (not counting our own reactions). Thus, the P(reaction) = 36/1491 = 2.4%

The second post got 780 impressions and 35 reactions. Thus P(reaction) = 4.5%

The third post got 413 impressions and 29 reactions. Thus P(reaction)= 7%

The fourth post got 518 impressions and 40 reactions. Thus P(reaction) = 7.7%

The fifth post got 327 impressions and 28 reactions. Thus P(reaction) = 8.6%

Since the reactions to these posts are mutually exclusive of each other, the Total Probability = 168/3529 = 4.8%

The biggest takeaways (in the context of Linked In Content) for us are:

  1. Something in either the algorithm itself or the content changed on Days 2 & 3 with the number of impressions dropping rapidly. (sidebar: Nobody likes Rules.)
  2. Impressions matter less than reactions and engagement
  3. Content on statistics or data have a bimodal distribution (people either like it or hate it) and since Linked In does not have a "blechh" or "dislike" reaction only the positive engagement shows up.
  4. Those that do engage with the posts are the ones that keep us encouraged to do more! Thank YOU!!

Have you looked at your Linked In Stats lately?

Feel free to use our model to find out how your content is doing with the dynamic algorithms that Social Media uses, even if you don't know exactly what those algorithms are!


Dr. K has started a hashtag called #postitstatistics on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, X, and YouTube to share her Post-It Statistics in a variety of formats (video with music, anyone?)

Here is the roundup of this week's posts from #PostItStatistics.


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Probability Multiplication Rule

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Probability Addition Rule

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Basic Conditional Probability

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Solving for Probability Using Contingency Tables

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Solutions to the Probability Problem

BONUS:

A Clip from a conversation with the amazing Beck Nadir , who demystifies AI one interview at a time and presents them on AI Demystified: Conversations with Beck !

Give him a follow, if you have missed any of his interesting and creative posts or interviews!


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Our Website: https://analyticstx.com/

About "The Data Whisperer":

Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer wrote a book on "Introduction to Business Statistics" a couple of years ago after 20+ years of teaching Business & Statistics at various Universities.

You can buy Dr. K's Business Statistics Book on Amazon (Kindle & Print editions available).

Dr. Lehenbauer is not just a data scientist, but a passionate explorer of data realms, unraveling insights that shape strategic trajectories.?With a profound understanding of statistics, an intricate grasp of diverse sectors, and relentless curiosity, she transforms complex data into actionable narratives of growth and innovation, especially in the face of growing AI implementations in business.

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John Ray

Author, Pricing and Business Development for Professional Services Firms, Podcast Host and Producer

7 个月

Wow, what interesting work you've done here, Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer! The algorithmic change you've highlighted is striking. Thanks for showing us what to look for with LinkedIn stats.

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