The Probability of Ethnic Politics Shaping Kogi's Three-Horse Race

By Odiawa Ai

The 2023 gubernatorial election in Kogi State will be a three-horse race among three significant tribes in Kogi State - the Igalas in Kogi East, Ebira in Kogi Central and the Okun people from West.

Since its creation in 1991, spectators of Kogi politics are of the view that this is the first time the three dominant ethnic groups in the state are going into the contest simultaneously.

Beside the ethnicity issue, brutality, power of incumbency, hostile party exercises that will decide who wins the political race, stakeholders are depending on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to give a neutral playing field to every one of the candidates.

Without a doubt, there are 18political parties and candidates that will be taking part in the political race to succeed Lead Representative Yahaya Bello in Lugard House. The candidates are: Usman Ododo of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Muritala Ajaka of Social Democratic Party (SDP), Leke Abejide of African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Olayinka Braimoh of Action Alliance (AA).

Others are Kingsley Idoko Ilonah of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Dr. Samson Agada Omale of Young Progressives Party (YPP), and Admiral Usman Jibrin of Accord (A) party among others. Be that as it may, just four of the parties and their candidates are noticeable with regards to campaign.

Ethnic Rivalry

The 2023 gubernatorial races in Kogi State vows to be a direct contest among the three major ethnic identities in the state. This is absolutely new to Kogi governmental issues. There have forever been contests between two major tribes while the third tribe and minorities emerge beautiful brides.

In 1999, Kogi gubernatorial contest was a fight between PDP's Steven Olorunfemi from Okun and ANPP's Abubakar Audu from Igala. The Ebiras were the beautiful brides then.

Anyway in 2007, it was a head-to-head between ACN's Mohammed Salami Ohiare of Ebiraland and PDP's Ibrahim Idris of Igala extraction and the people of Okun, Kogi West were the beautiful brides. 2019 gubernatorial contest was between APC's Yahaya Bello, an Ebiraman and PDP's Musa Wada. The result of the election generally showed ethnic tendencies. In 2019, Wada won by and large votes from Igala land while Bello cleared the Ebira votes in an avalanche triumph.

Nonetheless, primaries held for the current year had effectively modified the typical pattern of two major tribes confronting one another and involving the third tribe as negotiating advantage. PDP produced Senator Dino Melaye from Okun in Kogi West; APC delivered Usman Ododo from Ebiraland in Kogi Central, while the SDP set up Murtala Ajaka, an Igala man from Kogi East as its candidate.

It's the first time since the stste was created that the three major tribes will participate in a fight for supremacy. In the profoundly disruptive gubernatorial contest, the greatest issues ruling the campaigns in an uproar and in murmurs are potentially not legitimacy, capacity, or histories of a candidate, however ethnic contemplations. The campaign colouration portrays an ancestral contest, a three-sided dogfight among the Ebira, Okun, and Igala ethnic identities. In any case, a portion of the candidates have underscored that they are not ethnic bosses.

In view of the democratic qualities of the zones, none of these three tribes can without any assistance make one of their own Lead Representative, in this way, the ethnic minorities like Bassa Nge, Bassa Kwomu, Nupe, Ogori-Magongo and non-indigenes may probably conclude who wins the November 11, 2023 gubernatorial election.

Political Viciousness

In addition, there are developing worries over early admonitions of political brutality ahead of the political race.

Starting around 2003, occurrences of brutality have become one of the attributes of elections in the state. The maiming of Lady Salome Abuh, who was burnt alive in her home soon after the announcement of the results of the gubernatorial election won by the incumbent Lead Representative, Yahaya Bello, on November 18, 2019, saw a spike in Kogi's evaluating in political viciousness.

A few improvements recorded up to this point, showed that Saturday's election probably won't be unique in relation to the past one. On the third of June this year, there was a supposed assault on the guard of Lead Representative Bello by members of one of the opposition parties.

The indications of brutality in the Eastern flank of the state are now apparent. This has made the region a centre of attraction to be watched by security agents. There are instances of assaults in Kogi East. The circumstance in any case, different in Kogi central and west where the races are probably going to be serene, as there are no significant instances of assaults among political parties during the campaigns.

Yet, opposition parties have blamed the ruling APC for wanting to get political hooligans to cause pandemonium during the Saturday's political race and used the supposed hiring of major hotels in the state to legitimize their feelings of trepidation. They said every one of the hotels were completely reserved to accommodate hooligans from adjoining states.

In any case, Lead Representative Bello has over and over said that all will be carried out to make the state serene during the election and cautioned the people who might need to accomplish power through viciousness to back down.

Also, the Kogi State Command of the Nigerian Police has said it is working together with other sister security agencies towards guaranteeing that the election is void of viciousness, even as it communicated good faith that miscreants, who are keen on creating problems during the political race, would be managed as per the law.

SP Williams Ayah, Police Public Relations Office, (PPRO), gave this confirmation at the Media Roundtable/Engagement on the Kogi Governorship Election coordinated for Journalists in Kogi State, by the International Press Council (IPC).

Curiously, happenings of the most recent couple of weeks have seen the Lead Representative and security agents keeping to their vows, as candidates of the parties are preparing for the election.

Anti-party Exercises

In the February 2023 general elections, ADC alleged that two House of Representatives seats in Kogi State. The duo procured from overt and covert anti-party exercises in their separate constituencies.

Aftermath from party primary elections drove many bothered lawmakers to help various candidates and a comparable scenario is manifesting after the gubernatorial primaries in some of the parties.

After Dino came on the scene as the candidate of PDP, a handful of lawmakers especially from his west senatorial locale left the party out of frustration for the ruling APC. Additionally, the primary election of NNPP has been improved and Musa Mabarak has been supplanted with Hassan Abdullahi. Additionally, the impact of the tepid mentality of Senator Smart Adeyemi and Abubakar Achimugu, who contested the APC primaries up to the Supreme Court, is giving worries to some APC members.

Eyewitnesses noticed that the aftermath from these quarrelsome primaries might drive bothered politicians to participate in anti-party exercises ahead of the gubernatorial election.

Power of Incumbency

Kogi has seen the much-promoted 'power of incumbency' severally at the polls. The APC controls federal and state powers, as well as its gigantic coercive apparatus. With federal and state might behind the APC candidate, observers said that the oppositions face a gigantic errand in their bid to win the political race.

While the fight for ethnic matchless quality furies on, representatives of the APC-led government from the three principal ethnic zones are equipping to obtain votes in favour of their party candidates.

Aside from the above factors, some APC allies accept that Lead Representative Bello's performance, especially in his second tenure, will boost the possibilities of the APC candidate, Ododo Usman on Saturday.

Senator Natasha's Impact

A few political examiners have said that the recent victory of Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan at the Supreme Court may probably change the pattern of voting in Kogi central where she comes from. A prominent leader of the PDP in Okene, Mall Isah Nasiru, said with her recent rise as the legitimate victor of the senatorial election in Kogi central may influence the fortunes of the APC in the axis.

In any case, for APC's, Isiaka Amuda, "this is thoroughly off-base", saying that people who voted in the senatorial election cuts across partisan lines, adding that the situation then is likewise unique in relation to the current circumstance.

He expressed: "Majority of the people who voted for Natasha in that election are not all from PDP. The situation is now different. I can tell you for free that the people of Kogi central have already made up their minds on who to vote for."

One more stakeholder in Kogi politics and former gubernatorial candidate of Zenith Labour Party, (ZLP) and the only female, previously in the contest, Fatima Taiye Suleiman, noticed that she left her party for the candidate of the ruling APC in light of what she depicted as the amazing performance of the Lead Representative over the most recent seven years.

In any case, the main opposition parties, PDP, ADC and SDP have excused this, saying that the APC-led administration in the state has not done what's needed to get the votes of people.

The candidate of the PDP, Melaye, said the issue of unpaid salaries of Local Government staff is one of those issues that will deny the APC votes of people.

For Muritala Ajaka of SDP and Leke Abejide of ADC, since Lead Representative Bello from Kogi central has completed eight years, it's just normal for power to move to different zones.

Likewise, assuming the rumoured collusion between the ADC and SDP is anything to go by, another main consideration might influence the election result. This was fit for influencing the votes one way or the other. Overall, stakeholders are depending on INEC to step up its game and guarantee a free, fair and credible election on Saturday.