Prisoner swap - what next? Russian economy is (almost) exhausted. Bans on YouTube. Hungary welcomes Russian spies.

Prisoner swap as message to next killers

The biggest prisoner swap since the Cold War has taken place. The exchange resulted in the return of eight Russian hitmen and spies to Russia, the release of 16 US and German citizens, and the exile of the Russian opposition from their country. The most notable names are definitely Vadim Krasikov, Evan Gershkovich, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Ilya Yashin.

For the first time, I wrote about Krasikov in my newsletter when Putin hadn′t yet told that he personally wants back the hitman and killer who is jailed in Germany. Germany's reluctance to exchange Krasikov for US citizen Gershkovich was the sole issue, and they only agreed to do so after German citizen Rico Krieger was arrested and faced death sentence in Belarus. (That I predicted as well as soon as he was convinced that it was too much for Germany to swap Krasikov at last.) Even then, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was allegedly against the swap, and it took Biden's personal request to convince her.

From the freed Russian oppositioners, Vladimir Kara-Murza was the one that worked on the Magnitski list together with Boris Nemtsov and Bill Browder. According to Magnitsky Act US has already sanctioned over 650 Russian politicians and civil servants for their "participation in serious human rights abuse or corruption." I am sure Kara-Murza will continue this work and keep irritating Putin. Ilya Yashin, another freed opposition leader from the "new generation," has repeatedly stated that he, as a Russian politician, is unwilling to leave Russia and be swapped, and he, along with Kara-Murza, is not prepared to request a pardon from the terrorist and killer Putin. So they didn′t request, but their pleas were not heard, and were evicted from their prisons and Russia. And given an ultimatum that if they try to return, no more prisoner swaps will take place. Yet there are over 1300 political prisoners in Russian jails, as well as over 1400 in Belarus.

So why did this swap take place? Russia desperately wanted FSB hitman Vadim Krasikov out. There are numerous explanations for why. One explanation is that their relationship dates back to the Leningrad era, when Krasikov performed some dirty work for Putin, and at certain points, Putin did not want Krasikov to "kiss and tell." Another explanation could be that he and Putin were personal chums. I wouldn′t be surprised. The primary objective was to convey a message to all assassins and spies: Feel free to proceed; we will ensure your safety. However, Yashin himself stated that Putin will anyways continue to take prisoners, as this is the way dictators operate.

And for the US, it was important to return Paul Whelan, who did not make it to the Griner-But swap, and Evan Gershkovich and challenge Trump, who stated that “Putin will give Gershkovich back only after he becomes president. Putin will do it only for him.”.?

While I do understand humanitarian causes, this swap did not make the world a safer place, and all of the foreigners better stay out of Russia and Belarus.? And dissapointing that Russian opposition called for not stopping war in Ukraine but lifting sanctions for "common Russians".

According to Levada Center, 77% of Russians support war. Even though the objective feedback is not possible in dictatorship, it gives the bigger picture.

Hungary welcomes next potential spies

While Russian spies are returned home, Hungary welcomes tens of thousands of new spies to Hungary and the Schengen zone by their National Card program. Just out of the box, Hungary decided to allow any number of Russians move to Hungary without any thorough background check or reason. While officially it can explained by start of the construction of new nuclear project together with Russian, then in reality, it is not a reason not to check backgrounds or allow them to come en masse. This creates an official loophole for Russian spies and criminals to enter Europe through Hungary and venture further whenever needed. Read more here. Time to ban Hungary from Schengen and EU. When relationships do not mutually work, divorce is an option.

Oops, they did it again or Russia is starting to block YouTube

Well, not exactly block but Russia is lagging YouTube to the point where it becomes too slow to be used. Last time, when Russia tried to ban Telegram, it crushed half of Russian traffic, including nameserver .ru.

For several weeks now, there have been discussions that Russia is planning to start slowing down YouTube so it becomes practically unusable. Russian Duma deputies have already indicated of those plans, biggest media outlets have leaked the news, tested the reaction and came to conclusion that "yep, should be done, no huge backlash". First, while trying the first slowdowns, Google was blamed, referring to outdating cash-servers while tech giant denied it. Probably the time has come when Kremlin feels that after banning Russian propaganda channels there is more downside than upside. Reminds Orwell 1984 and his Ministry of Truth. Well, Russian "Ministry of Truth" decided that the ultimate truth is only in runet. But then again, as spokesman of Kremlin Peskov said "there is always VPN".

Resources in Russian economy have (almost) exhausted

When listening to Elvira Nabiullina, Chief of the Russian Central Bank′s press conference, it felt like watching a train crush in slow motion. She shared the critical situation of the Russian economy without hesitation, and slowly, the press conference turned from "25+5 years in prison for treason" to "one-way ticket to the frontline."

To summarize.? The Russian economy is overheating and heading to stagflation. High inflation and insufficient production capacity cause the economy to overheat, making it the "hottest" in 16 years. Then it was followed by a deep recession, and this is what Nabiullina is afraid of. She sees all the negative triggers for the economy, starting with the impact of sanctions and ending with a huge additional cash flow to the economy that cannot be managed. One of the primary reasons for this inability is the severe shortage of labor. With unemployment at just 2.6%, finding a workforce is practically impossible, and 71% of companies say that they cannot grow.

What can save the economy, according to Nabiullina, is "normalisation of budget planning." Translation: no more huge cash flows from reserves to finance war. The good news is that the liquid reserves will soon run out. The bad news is that the economy will continue to heavily lean towards war and will be beyond the control of normal monetary means.

Sanctions on the financial sector make it harder to pay for goods and services, while imports are decreasing. Additionally, 80% of payments are made in yuan, the main currency now, which is returned. Even China does not like "dirty yuans," as they call the yuans that have circulated in the Russian economy.

Conclusion: The resources in the Russian economy are almost exhausted, and it is surprisingly brave to say it out loud. Putin will not be happy.