Prigozhin and Putin both likely "divorced from reality" meaning 2000 nuclear weapons are at risk for usage; and not rewarding RF Czarist fantasies
END IT: Otherwise, Putin or his evil twin will use nuclear weapons. Denial will not make it go away: Finally it is repugnant to normalize the Czarist fantasies running wild in the Kremlin. That will if not stopped lead to a global holocaust
MARJORIE GREENE non withstanding, it is time for a plan to end the Ukraine war and not on the basis of what GREENE is demanding, mainly complete surrender of the EU to the tender mercies of either Prigozhin and/or Putin
This is a plea for people not to kowtow to Putin or to grovel, but for NATO to intervene with maximum precision if there is a use of even a tactical nuclear weapon, and to act decisively. In the context of Ukraine in its 1991 borders.
Here is why: This is how divide and rule skewed Putin's perceptions of Prigozhin and vice versa. Now for the summary below:
quote
"First, he encouraged Mr. Prigozhin, tacitly allowing him to recruit widely — including from prisons — for the war in Ukraine and to take a prominent position on the battlefield, particularly in the?fight for Bakhmut. The calculation was not strictly military. Mr. Prigozhin was clearly elevated to act as a counterweight to the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the military generals, ensuring they didn't become too popular. So when Mr. Prigozhin started criticizing the military leadership — often in explicit, expletive-ridden diatribes — the president did nothing to stop it.""
As a result, Zygar?notes:
"The damage is done. The rebellion has desacralized Mr. Putin, substantially weakening his authority. Before this weekend, much of Russian society, and especially state bureaucrats, believed that he always made the right decisions, that he was much more cunning, wiser and better informed than anyone else. But the events of the weekend have shown Mr. Putin in the worst possible light: weak, vacillating, incapable of exerting control. He alone is to blame for what happened, something that is obvious to everyone except him."
end of quote
The long and short of it, is that Prigozhin, with maybe up to a billion USD of stolen assets from Russia, and from Africa remains the worst person in the world to play populist underdog to the Russian military. The adage of a time of troubles for Putin and by extension Russia does not exclude the mutual blindness of both of these protagonists. It makes it worse
Meanwhile the following needs to be internalized
quote
Article by:?Hans Petter Midttun
The previous strategy has led to war; NATO must invite Ukraine to be a member at the upcoming summit in Vilnius, even while the battles still rage, says defense analyst Hans Petter Midttun
NATO membership is not solely in the interests of Ukraine.?Firstly,?Ukraine is fighting our war. While the war is often described as a Russian-Ukrainian war, it was always a broader confrontation between Russia and the West. Ukrainian efforts are being increasingly recognized as being aligned with European values, principles, and, not least, interests.
Secondly, it is in NATO and the EU’s interest to ensure a Ukrainian victory?(in contrast to the commitment to “support Ukraine as long as it takes”). The consequence of a Ukrainian defeat would be devastating to European security. Equally important, without Ukraine, there is no European security. The Alliance will not be able to defend the security and stability of its member states without Ukraine.
end of quote
Yes Ukraine is fighting the EUs war. But it is worse than that. The popular narrative needs a redo
quote
The West has the means to end the war but has refused to use them.?In the words of?Hanne Hopko?(ANTS Network, Head of Democracy in Action Conference; ex-MP/Head of the Ukrainian Committee on Foreign Affairs (2014-2019):
“Crime of inaction is worse than crimes of aggression. When you know you can help and save lives but don’t do this … or deliberately delay with decisions … this is how evil prevails.”
I fully agree. Inaction is also an action.
end of quote
Entertaining the normalcy of a perpetually aggressive Kremlin, with meek word will encourage the M. Greene and the V. Putin types forever more
FTR
END IT: Otherwise, Putin or his evil twin will use nuclear weapons. Denial will not make it go away: Finally it is repugnant to normalize the Czarist fantasies running wild in the Kremlin. That will if not stopped lead to a global holocaust
quote
Why Putin’s allies believe he is 'divorced from reality': Russian journalist
June 30, 2023, 9:53 PM ET
The day Wagner Group leader Yevgeny V. Prigozhin attempted to rebel against the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin was enjoying himself at one of the country's "most popular" events, the Scarlet Sails festival,?according to Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar.
In a?New York Times?op-ed published Friday,?Zygar?shares that after speaking with?Putin allies, it's clear they believe "this is the clearest evidence yet that the president is divorced from reality."
And as a result of his failure to prevent the rebellion —?if only he had talked to Prigozhin?— many of those same allies are feeling "a growing appetite for change."
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The former editor in chief of Russian independent TV news channel Dozed writes:
"First, he encouraged Mr. Prigozhin, tacitly allowing him to recruit widely — including from prisons — for the war in Ukraine and to take a prominent position on the battlefield, particularly in the?fight for Bakhmut. The calculation was not strictly military. Mr. Prigozhin was clearly elevated to act as a counterweight to the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the military generals, ensuring they didn't become too popular. So when Mr. Prigozhin started criticizing the military leadership — often in explicit, expletive-ridden diatribes — the president did nothing to stop it.""
As a result, Zygar?notes:
"The damage is done. The rebellion has desacralized Mr. Putin, substantially weakening his authority. Before this weekend, much of Russian society, and especially state bureaucrats, believed that he always made the right decisions, that he was much more cunning, wiser and better informed than anyone else. But the events of the weekend have shown Mr. Putin in the worst possible light: weak, vacillating, incapable of exerting control. He alone is to blame for what happened, something that is obvious to everyone except him."
Now, according to the author of?War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky and the Path to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine,?Progozhin has likely arrived to "the end of his political and military career," while Zygar emphasizes, if Putin "still believes that he has everything under control" — well, "he is mistaken.
end of quote
Also
quote
Credit: Ukraine's General Staff?
2023/06/30 - 05:31 ??OPINION
Article by:?Hans Petter Midttun
The previous strategy has led to war; NATO must invite Ukraine to be a member at the upcoming summit in Vilnius, even while the battles still rage, says defense analyst Hans Petter Midttun
NATO membership is not solely in the interests of Ukraine.?Firstly,?Ukraine is fighting our war. While the war is often described as a Russian-Ukrainian war, it was always a broader confrontation between Russia and the West. Ukrainian efforts are being increasingly recognized as being aligned with European values, principles, and, not least, interests.
Secondly, it is in NATO and the EU’s interest to ensure a Ukrainian victory?(in contrast to the commitment to “support Ukraine as long as it takes”). The consequence of a Ukrainian defeat would be devastating to European security. Equally important, without Ukraine, there is no European security. The Alliance will not be able to defend the security and stability of its member states without Ukraine.
As some speakers argue, Ukrainian membership will strengthen Europe’s security and defense autonomy at a time when US attention is increasingly focusing on the Pacific theatre. Gen Michel Yakovleff also argued that Europe would inevitably face “20 years of chaos” because of Russian failure. Ukraine will play a crucial role in countering the challenges this entails for European security and stability.
Thirdly, Ukrainian NATO membership will help end the war. Instead of discussing the potential problems of accepting a country at war, the member states should address how the accession will help change the military balance and force Russia to withdraw. Accepting Ukraine into a defensive military alliance is not an act of escalation or war: It would be an act of diplomacy, forcing Russia to consider the consequences of continuing a war that – at the date of Ukrainian accession to NATO – would trigger Article 5 and collective defense.
I argued that the West has not changed its strategy since 2014. It only does more of what it already did before 24 February.?The coalition only changed the scale and scope of sanctions and its defense, financial and humanitarian aid, not the overall “strategy” (or rather the broad understanding of how to proceed).
Ukraine’s international partners still lack a commonly agreed aim and objective and, therefore, a unified strategy. The regular declarations of “support of Ukraine as long as it takes” underline the point. It is intentionally vague and non-committal and in great contrast to a declaration stating that we want Ukraine to win.?The ambiguity is further reinforced by the West’s feeble response to Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam. It is the largest environmental catastrophe in Ukraine since Chornobyl. The lack of response encourages Russia to continue to escalate. Russia is allegedly already preparing even further horrendous acts with global consequences (e.g., the mining of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and Crimean Titan plant). It is already waging war among Ukraine’s 15 nuclear reactors.
The present ”strategy” has turned peace into conflict and a full-scale war.
NATO keeps military power off the table despite its commitment to intervene in its late strategic concept.?The West is still governed by fear?– being afraid of a broader confrontation (it is already a part of), a possible escalation (that has been ongoing since 2014) and nuclear blackmail (that NATO by no means can afford to give in to as it would confirm that Putin’s nuclear fait accompli strategy works and, therefore, increases the risk of escalation). The US and some Europe countries still seek negotiations (somewhere down the road) and, therefore, appeasement.
The present ”strategy” does not work. It has turned peace into conflict and a full-scale war. The war has continued to escalate since 24 February 2022.
The West, therefore, desperately needs a new strategy.?Offering Ukraine a NATO membership at the Vilnius summit – effective from 1 August – would allow Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine?(or face a war with a collective West). It would offer President Putin an off-ramp and an opportunity to present himself as the statesman that de-escalated and averted a “WW3”.
A Ukrainian NATO membership accession could end the war without a single shot being fired by a coalition of the willing.
I will leave it to the victims of Russian hybrid war – and its long-term effort to manipulate the cognitive space of key policy and decision-makers – to explain why Russia would choose to fight 31+1 countries, when it struggles to defeat one. I will let them explain why an aggressor that has done its uttermost to avoid the West becoming a part of the war in Ukraine, suddenly would decide to wage war with the West. Additionally, I am looking forward to their explanation as to why a nuclear war would be in the interest of Russia in a situation that does not threaten its existence.
The West has the means to end the war but has refused to use them.?In the words of?Hanne Hopko?(ANTS Network, Head of Democracy in Action Conference; ex-MP/Head of the Ukrainian Committee on Foreign Affairs (2014-2019):
“Crime of inaction is worse than crimes of aggression. When you know you can help and save lives but don’t do this … or deliberately delay with decisions … this is how evil prevails.”
I fully agree. Inaction is also an action.
“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.” (Winston Churchill to Neville Chamberlain; copied by Hans Petter Midttun to NATO Heads of States)
Ukrainian NATO membership is in Europe’s interest. It is, therefore, also in the interest of the USA. It is high time NATO acted accordingly.
It is time to face our fears and solve a war that would have never happened if the West had demonstrated resolve and invested in security and defense during the last three decades?(one of which includes the ongoing war).
This speech was made at the international conference, “Ukraine and NATO on the eve of the Vilnius Summit: From Support via Victory to Membership,” organized by GLOBSEC.
Related:
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Andrew Beckwith, PhD