Priceless potential: The soaring value of young footballers

With the 2024/25 summer transfer window recently closed, we have updated the valuations of over 10,000 players on our platform. This analysis highlights key insights from the new market values, offering a deeper understanding of how player values and squad compositions are shifting. It also provides a picture of which teams are poised for success this season and where the most promising young talent can be found, particularly in leagues outside the traditional powerhouses.

Article by Yossi Segal | Football Benchmark

Key findings

• Mbappé, Haaland and Bellingham are the three most valuable players in the world according to Football Benchmark.
• 17-year-old Lamine Yamal’s value has increased by EUR 46 million since June after exceptional performances.
• There are several players outside the biggest European leagues who already have a high market value attached to them.
• Recent growth of Saudi football is clearly visible in the list of most valuable squads outside Europe.

A 17-year-old “world-beater"

Starting at the top end of Football Benchmark’s latest player valuations, the data platform illustrates some of the usual suspects in the Top 10 player valuations with Kylian Mbappé, Erling?Haaland and Jude Bellingham coming in 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Kylian Mbappé’s recent transfer to Real Madrid CF has put the Frenchman at the top of the standings once again. Notably, his previous market value in June was EUR 0 in our model because his contract with Paris Saint-Germain FC was close to expiration .

The two big movers in the Top 10 are Florian Wirtz and Lamine Yamal with the former’s value increasing by EUR 10 million thanks to an exceptional 2023/24 Bundesliga season and a prominent role for “die Mannschaft” at Euro 2024 on home soil. In a similar vein, Yamal’s EUR 46 million valuation rise stems from his step from precocious talent to immense centrepiece as he became the focal point of La Roja’s victorious Euro 2024 campaign and FC Barcelona’s good start to the 2024/25 season.

The meteoric rise of Yamal places him 1st among all players in the Football Benchmark Player Valuation platform in terms of valuation increase since the last update in June. PSG’s Jo?o Neves and Manchester United FC’s Kobbie Mainoo came in 2nd and 3rd, respectively. The Portuguese’s value has risen after his recent transfer to the French capital and Mainoo’s increase is attributed to well and truly breaking into the starting XI of his club side and inclusions in the England national team.

Interestingly, all players in the Top 10 were aged 23 and younger as of the September update and five of the 10 players had transferred clubs in the 2024/25 summer transfer window. Additionally, despite not technically moving during the 2024/25 summer window, Estêv?o has already agreed to a future transfer to join Chelsea FC next summer once he turns 18.

Gems in the rough

The previously mentioned players are almost all household names with significant market values and for a transfer to happen for one of these players, a club would need to commit significant financial resources. However, where could clubs identify the next young superstars? Well, thanks to the Football Benchmark Player Valuation platform, players from less well-known leagues and their current market values can be easily found.

To create a list of promising young talent, stronger leagues that would demand more money in exchange for their players had to be excluded. Thus, utilising UEFA’s association club coefficient ranking as of September 2024, the 10 strongest European leagues have been excluded from our search.

Additionally, as clubs are increasingly looking for younger players who can grow, develop and increase in value, a filter has been added that only players who were 22 or younger as of 1st September2024 have been included in the assessment.

The Top 10 young talent based on Football Benchmark estimated market values are as follows. Firstly, on top of this list is the Ukrainian, Georgiy Sudakov from Shakhtar Donetsk whose market value of EUR 34 million can be attributed to his regular appearances for his club team as well as the Ukraine national team since the beginning the 2023/24 season. He extended his contract at the Ukrainian champions this February until 2028, which protects his market value.

A club with multiple players on this list is FC Red Bull Salzburg . Their three players (Oscar Gloukh, Karim Konaté and Lucas Gourna-Douath) are a testament to Salzburg’s and the wider Red Bull MCO model’s scouting and overall recruitment process as each of them originate from very different parts of the world.

Additionally, given the success of past Salzburg alumni e.g. Erling Haaland, Dayot Upamecano and Dominik Szoboszlai, it would not be a stretch to assume that these three current Salzburg players will be sold above their current market value (EUR 27.9, 19.8 and 18.5 million, respectively) at a future date.

However, attempting to find players who haven’t yet been poached by Europe’s elite clubs is a challenge (a trend that is present in our Top 10 list) as some high-potential players have already agreed to join, are on loan from or have previously played at some of these elite clubs. As mentioned earlier, Estêv?o has already agreed to a future transfer to join Chelsea.

Similarly, Claudio Echeverri joined Manchester City FC only to be loaned back to Club Atlético River Plate for the 2024 calendar year. Even players at the lower end of the Top 10 (?ngelo and Carlos Alcaraz) played for European clubs before being sold to teams in Brazil and Saudi Arabia. This shows that well-established clubs are hoovering up talented players with high market values and that there are few truly ‘hidden’ wonderkids on the market.

The lion’s share

The data from the September update of the Football Benchmark Player Valuation platform also illustrates which players' market value contributes most significantly to their club’s total squad value in the “Big Five” leagues.?

On top of this list are two Ivorian players (Hamed Junior Traorè and Sébastien Haller) who are alone “responsible” for over 27% of their current squad's total market value. The reason for such a high proportion is that these players are currently on loan and their values reflect their parent clubs’ significantly higher revenues. ?

This notion is also apparent for Paul Wanner whose current market value of EUR 12.9 million is influenced by his status as a FC Bayern München player and as such his Football Benchmark market value is high relative to everyone else in his current side’s squad (1. FC Heidenheim).

At the lower end of the Top 10 are some players who are dominant forces at their current club. Such names include Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Julián Alvarez, Florian Wirtz and Jonathan David.

The return of the king(s)

From a total squad value perspective, Real Madrid C.F. have reclaimed the top spot as their squad value has increased by EUR 243 million to EUR 1,373 million. This substantial increase can be mostly attributed to the acquisition of a certain Kylian Mbappé, who - as mentioned earlier - now has a EUR 233.2 million market valuation.

Conversely, 2nd place Manchester City FC have had their total squad value reduced by EUR 71 million which is attributable to the sale of Julián Alvarez and the market value decline of older stars such as Kevin De Bruyne and Ederson (both decreasing in market value by EUR 7+ million).

Notable movers are PSG and Manchester United FC whose total squad values have increased by EUR 99 million and EUR 163 million apiece. Both increases are due to spending splurges to bring in talent in the 2024/25 summer window, highlighted by the acquisitions of Jo?o Neves and Leny Yoro, respectively.

On the side of the spectrum, FC Barcelona's EUR 77 million decrease in total squad value had been fuelled by the exits of players such as ?lkay Gündo?an, Jo?o Cancelo and Jo?o Félix.

Pearl of the Gulf

Looking at only first division club sides outside of leagues from UEFA’s top 10 ranked associations , it is clear that multiple clubs with the highest total squad values are from Saudi Arabia. In fact, four are ranked among the Top 10 with Al-Hilal SFC being in second place with a total squad value of EUR 207 million. These Saudi club squad values show the ambition of authorities in the country to grow the game.

First and third on the list are two Brazilian clubs in Clube de Regatas do Flamengo and SE Palmeiras whose total squad market value are EUR 210 and 195 million, respectively. Interestingly, despite being known for producing talent, the average age of these Brazilian squads is not the lowest on this particular list. Rather, the two youngest squads on this list belong to RB Salzburg and Shakhtar, which goes to show the young talent these teams are producing.

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