Presidential Polling, Ohio Race Continues to Tighten, VA-7 Another Close Contest

Providing you with a recap of this week’s top five news items and resources straight from our experts.?

Presidential Polling?

Emerson College launched a series of polls around the country and two states again show stark contrasts between the presidential and US Senate contests.? In Arizona (10/5-8; 1,000 AZ likely voters; multiple sampling techniques), Emerson finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 51-48%, but the Senate race clearly turns against the GOP.? While Trump tips the scales with majority support, the GOP Senatorial candidate, former gubernatorial contender Kari Lake, trails US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) 50-43%, or a full ten points behind Mr. Trump’s standing.?

In Wisconsin, while Emerson (10/5-8; 1,000 AZ likely voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds former President Trump surprisingly carrying the state by a percentage point, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin continues to lead her GOP opponent, businessman Eric Hovde, by four points, meaning a five-point favorable Democratic swing for the down ballot contest.?

The ticket splitting phenomenon present in several US Senate races as depicted in this post continues to reveal stronger GOP support for Mr. Trump than the commensurate Senate candidate in several states.? Considering this pattern’s figurative life span, it is possible the Republicans will not be able to overcome the momentum thus leaving several opportunity races unconverted.?

Ohio Race Continues to Tighten?

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running for a fourth term and has held the polling lead for the entire campaign, but recent surveys suggest a tightening of the contest.? Though former President Trump has established a healthy lead in the Buckeye State, a place he has twice won by eight percentage points, Sen. Brown has continued to post an advantage over GOP businessman Bernie Moreno.? ?

The trend, however, shows a tightening of the race.? While Sen. Brown led consistently by five points earlier in the cycle, the most recent nine polls suggest an average lead of only 1.5 percentage points.? Therefore, with Trump doing well at the top of the ticket, and Moreno closing the gap, we see a trend moving toward the GOP challenger in this hot Ohio race.?

VA-7 Another Close Contest?

For the third consecutive time, Ragnar Research Partners has produced a poll that finds a virtual dead heat between retired Army Colonel Eugene Vindman (D) and Iraq War veteran and attorney Derrick Anderson (R) in northern Virginia’s open 7th Congressional District. The latest poll (for the Anderson campaign; 9/29-10/1; 400 VA-7 likely voters; live interview) sees Mr. Vindman holding only a 43-42%, margin, which is almost identical with what RRP found in their August and September polls.?

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is leaving this lean Democratic district to run for Governor in 2025. Despite his huge 5:1 spending advantage as recorded in the June financial disclosure report, Mr. Vindman has failed to nail down the seat. This suggests we will see a very close finish in November.?

Congressional Leadership Fund Invests $5 Million of New Money?

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns according to The Down Ballot political blog. ?

The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Rep. Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).?

Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).?

Texas Polling Still Close?

Florida Atlantic University is one of the many polling entities testing the Texas Senate race, and like the others, the survey data suggests a looming close finish.? The university poll (10/2-6; 775 TX likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to be holding only a 46-43% lead over US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) with 11% undecided. ?

As has been the case around the country, the Democrats are emphasizing the abortion issue while the Cruz campaign, like that of former President Donald Trump, is hitting the transgender issue in addition to crime and the border.? It is not clear if transgender policy is a vote driver, which has caused some to question the Cruz strategy.? The same poll finds Mr. Trump leading Kamala Harris, 50-45%.? Both Republicans appear to be under-polling.?

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