‘If President Magufuli Had To Rule Zambia To Improve The Economy’

By Portipher Ngulube

Introduction

Zambia has maintained a peaceful democratic environment since the establishment of Independence in 1964. This environment supports sustainable socio-economic development interventions by its cooperating partners. According to its constitution, Zambia is a multi-party democracy whose parliament and president remain in office for five-year terms. The untimely death in 2008 of president Mwanawasa, who was serving his second term, led to presidential by-elections in October of the same year. As a result, the former Vice-President, Mr. Rupiah Banda, was appointed President, pending the next scheduled elections in 2011.

As a legacy from the Second Republic, Zambia still has a highly centralized form of government and public service, and faces challenges in realizing aspirations of an open and market-driven economic regime. Central government undertakes most of the functions that have the greatest impact on people’s lives and resources allocated at the local level are few. In some cases, the GRZ re-allocates funds budgeted for particular projects to others that that may be more sensitive to sudden political developments.

Since independence, the Zambian economy has relied strongly upon a single natural resource namely, copper. When high world market copper prices started to decline in 1973, the Zambian economy did the same. The first and second Republics under President Kaunda (the first, from 1964 to 1973 characterized by multiparty democracy, and the second, from 1973 to 1991 characterized by the One-Party State) saw Zambia transition from a middle-income country to a least developed country, due to a combination of low copper prices, inflexible and state-controlled economic policies and high costs associated with Zambia’s being a prominent frontline state in the context of the liberation struggles in Southern Africa.

The Third Republic under Presidents Chiluba (1992 to 2001), Mwanawasa (2001 to 2008) and Banda (since 2008), was characterized by a return to multi-party politics and the opening up of the economy. This resulted in modest growth during the nineties with an average annual growth of 2.9 percent, or 0.9 percent per capita, as compared to a negative per-capita growth in the preceding years. In the period 2002 to 2008, under President Mwanawasa and assisted by high copper prices in the world market, the economy picked up and annual growth rose to 5 percent, or 2.7 percent per capita. Since the early 1990’s, Zambia had accumulated an external debt of USD 7.1 billion that made debt servicing a heavy burden on the GRZ’s ability to finance both its recurrent and development programmes. However, through the highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) and multilateral debt relief initiatives, Zambia’s external debt was reduced to USD 635 million by the end of 2006. Foreign direct investment remained modest for a long time, partly due to an investment climate characterized by high levels of corruption and investors’ fears of nationalization of assets. More recently this has changed, particularly since countries like China, India, South Africa, Brazil and Egypt have increased their economic involvement in Zambia (UNDP, 2010).

Discussion

Noyoo (2013) narrates that Zambia’s development trajectory was underpinned by an ideology. This ideology was of the ruling party - UNIP or more precisely of the president, Kenneth Kaunda. It was referred to as Humanism. Humanism was used as a tool to mobilise the citizens around the twin goals of nation-building and socio-economic development. It was also very instrumental in harmonising the disparate ethnic groups under one unitary state. The UNIP motto of One Zambia-One Nation was also adopted by the government for purposes of fostering national unity and keeping in check ethnic rivalries. This is because the 1960s were characterised by political violence that was primarily driven by ethnicity. Since the country had inherited a Westminster constitutional model, political pluralism and dissenting views were permitted through a multi-party type of electoral system. Although there were a number of opposition parties during this period, some of them were constituted along ethnic lines. The ruling party itself was not immune to ethnicity and did also fuel ethnic tensions in the political arena as well as in the country. Humanism denoted a way of life that was modelled along the lines of a mutual-aid society, which found its basis in the ethnic community in which human need was the supreme criterion of behaviour and social harmony was a vital necessity, since every activity was a matter of teamwork (Fortman, 1969).

The African Leader that has been chosen to tackle Zambia's economic problems is President John Magufuli, Tanzania’s current president has embarked on his own nation building drive which has endeared him with nation's citizens as well as those from other African countries (Ndii 2016; Shaw 2016).

Magufuli has always believed in a country’s status being a ‘democratic, secular and socialist state’ and the legacy of ujamaa, the brand of ‘African socialism’. Nyerere’s promotion of a singular identity over tribal or religious affiliations, and his prioritization of local languages over English as the official language of government, education and culture, has had a lasting impact.

There are two contradictory visions currently guiding the economic reforms under Magufuli: the neoliberal/integrationist vision inherited from the past regimes and the nationalist/autonomist vision championed by Magufuli. The major economic activity, in Magufuli autonomist vision, is to be industrial production (what one would call, in Marxist terms, accumulation through expanded reproduction). For this to happen, the fictitious and grand corruption-driven economy that dominated the previous era has to be cracked down on, hence, the war on grand corruption and embezzlement of public funds. (The Guardian 1st June 2016)

Magufuli vision of industrialisation has an element of building national linkages, especially between the agricultural sector and the industrial sector. The goods to be produced by those factories are mass consumer goods produced: mass as opposed for luxury goods for elites. By producing “commodities like clothes, shoes, cooking oil, etc., and as such these factories will have a secured internal market before thinking of the foreign market” (ibid). Furthermore, such industrialisation has to be labour-intensive as opposed to capital intensive (Nyamsenda, 2018). This is exactly what Zambia needs as it is developing its agricultural sector it needs an industrial sector to process its produce.

The “Magufuli Effect” is centred on reducing government expenditure and corruption whilst pushing for economic transformation and community development. Magufuli has so far done this through cancelling what he saw as unnecessary expenditure by, for example, cancelling Independence Day Celebrations, reducing by 90% the budget for a state dinner, reducing cabinet size, reducing ministerial salaries and cutting on foreign trips as well as advocating for the usage of government facilities for workshops, meetings and trainings (Gaffey 2016). The saved funds can be directed towards community and infrastructure development initiatives. With this having been done within a few months in office, Zambia is poised to show good socio-economic results through infrastructure development and improved service delivery from the new nation building policies.

Dr John Pombe Magufuli, has already made his mark as a frugal leader committed to battling waste in the public sector and punishing poor performance in delivering public services. Although his spate of sackings and cutbacks win popular support, he faces a more difficult challenge in dealing with strong and sometimes divergent dynamics within a ruling party, particularly if the priorities of the political elite contradict his efforts to combat corruption.

President Magufuli makes a high-impact demonstration of his no nonsense style of leadership. Spot-checks usually carried out by the president results in the suspension and sacking of senior officials as needed in Zambia especially at the Revenue Authority, the Anti-Corruption Commission, the Energy Regulation Board and the National Identification Authority, sending a public warning to other civil servants that they would be expected to embody Magufuli campaign pledge of Hapi Kaza Tu [work and nothing else]. Magufuli is a party stalwart with over 20 years of experience in the ministries of works, lands and livestock (Anyimadu, 2016). With this kind of experience he truly knows what he's doing.

President Magufuli removal of senior officials from prominent civil service positions usually sends a strong message that poor delivery will be punished, but sustaining improvements will require combating long-standing inefficiencies to ensure that well-designed policy focused on improving basic development outcomes can be implemented. This also comes at a time when government spending needs to be curtailed. He has a desire to hold direct authority over the technocratic aspects of policy implementation that is why he likes his cabinet, staffed with technocrats and academics.

During President Magufuli tenure in Zambia, the government will have to ensure the smooth implementation of policies that set the groundwork for the private sector to play a role in aiding service delivery, improving the construction of needed infrastructure and providing jobs. A unified approach to economic governance – encompassing the government’s standing commitments to better provision of electricity, increased use of green energy, transparency and improvements in agriculture and infrastructure – could do much to speed up development (Anyimadu, 2016).

President Magufuli usually makes clear his prioritization of improvements to civil service performance. Enhancing bureaucratic capability will take time, and better monitoring and evaluation of the progress of public service delivery requires greater prioritization by donor partners and political leaders. The key to driving continued development will be the streamlining of objectives between donors and the government, improvements to the capacity of the public sector, and an increase in the country’s ability to raise domestic revenue – itself dependent on the capacity of the private sector. Delivery also remains highly dependent on funding for the local authorities that are on the front line of service provision.

Conclusion

Tanzania's Magufuli tactics tell Zambia that our leaders need to walk the talk to cut down on wasteful public expenditure on ministers, parliamentarians and bureaucrats, to channel these savings to public services and tackle corruption, if necessary with sufficient powers to suspend, sack and prosecute those who indulge in such practices. At the same time, our leaders must also focus on strategic infrastructure investment, better delivery of public services and expanded economic opportunities for all.

References

• Anyimadu, A. (2016) Politics and Development in Tanzania: Shifting the Status Quo. London: Chatman House.
• Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania, paragraph 3, section 1, https://www.judiciary.go.tz/downloads/constitution.pdf. In a draft constitution crafted in 2013–14, references to socialism have been removed.
• Fortman, B. (1969) Introduction. In Fortman, B. (ed.). After Mulungushi. Nairobi: East African Publishing House. pp 1-9
• Gaffey, C. (2016) Tanzania: Magufuli Cancels National Holiday, Orders Money to be Spent on Roadworks. Newsweek, 4 May 2016: Online. Available: https://europe.newsweek.com/tanzania-magufuli-cancelsnational-holiday-orders-money-be-spent-roadworks-444196?rm=eu (Accessed 11 April 2019)
• Ndii, D. (2016) What Magufuli presidency means for Uhuru’s reign? Daily Nation, 2 January 2016: Online. Available: https://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/What-Magufuli-presidency-means-for-Uhurus-reign//440808/3018258/-/o3k3e8z/-/index.html (Accessed 11 April 2019).
• Noyoo, N. (2013) Social Welfare in Zambia: The Search for a Transformative Agenda. Adonis & Abbey Publishers Ltd: Abuja
• Nyamsenda, S. (2018) Bulldozing like a fascist? Authoritarian populism and rural activism in Tanzania. International Institute of Social Studies (ISS): The Hague
• Shaw, D. (2016) Tanzania’s President John Magufuli – The Hero of the Hour. ISDA Issue Brief  22 January 2016: 1-7. 11 April 2019
• The Guardian. (2016) “Gvt to Slap Anti-Dumping Tariffs on Imported Goods”. June 1
• UNDP (2010) Assessment of Development of Results: Evaluation of UNDP Contribution Zambia, UNDP: Lusaka