Preparing Your Business for Artificial Intelligence: An Executive Guide

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become one of the most talked about technologies of our time. Headlines warn that AI may one day surpass human intelligence and lead to unforeseeable consequences. While the most advanced form of AI, known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), may still be decades away, AI is already impacting businesses and society in profound ways. As an executive, it is crucial to understand where AI is heading and how you can position your organization to benefit from emerging capabilities while also mitigating potential downsides.

The Current State of AI

Before looking ahead, it helps to understand where we are today. AI can be divided into two broad categories:

Narrow AI

This refers to AI systems designed to perform specific, well-defined tasks. Examples include chatbots, fraud detection, search algorithms, and content recommendation engines. Narrow AI is already delivering tremendous value across industries.

Artificial General Intelligence

AGI refers to AI that can learn and reason across a broad range of domains at a human level. AGI does not exist today, but researchers are actively exploring paths to achieve it.

How Close Are We to AGI?

Predictions on when AGI might arrive range from 10 years to never. While the exact timing is uncertain, AGI could represent an economic and societal inflection point whenever it emerges. Rather than dismiss AGI as science fiction, executives should monitor progress in the field.

Measuring Progress Towards AGI

Useful frameworks for tracking AGI progress include:

• Object recognition - How capable are systems at identifying never-before-seen objects and situations? The goal is abilities comparable to a 2-year-old child.
• Language understanding - Can systems converse, follow context, and understand subtleties like humor? Target is a 4-year-old's capabilities.
• Manual dexterity - How adept are robot hands at complex real-world manipulation? Evaluate against a 6-year-old.
• Social intelligence - Can systems understand others' perspectives, predict behavior, and interact naturally? Skills of an 8-year-old are the benchmark.

While narrow AI has made strides in some areas like computer vision, current systems lack the common sense and well-rounded abilities of even young children. This highlights how far we still have to go to achieve human-level AGI.

How Might Progress Accelerate?

Historically, AI has advanced in fits and starts based on breakthroughs across three areas:

1. Algorithms - Novel techniques like deep learning have driven recent progress. Further conceptual leaps will be required to achieve AGI.

2. Computing Power - GPUs enabled deep learning by allowing rapid processing of vast amounts of data. New hardware like quantum computing could unlock future capabilities.

3. Data - Large datasets enabled algorithms like deep learning to thrive. New data sources, like sensors on autonomous systems, may further fuel advances.

Executives should monitor these areas for developments that could rapidly accelerate progress.

Preparing Your Organization

Regardless of when AGI arrives, executives can take steps today to harness AI's benefits while managing risks:

Stay Informed on AGI Progress

• Connect with AI startups and researchers to identify developments relevant to your business.
• Track progress against benchmarks like language understanding to gauge the field.

Deploy Narrow AI Now

• Simplify processes and data formats to increase AI adoption on focused tasks.
• Don't wait for AGI - use today's AI to drive value.

Invest in Human-Machine Collaboration

• Develop interfaces that augment people with AI rather than replacing them.
• Focus on human-AI partnerships that combine strengths of each.

Democratize AI in Your Organization

• Build AI capabilities outside the IT function.
• Use low-code platforms to empower citizen developers.
• Encourage experimentation while governing thoughtfully.

Organize for Flexibility

• Move to agile, cross-functional teams that can rapidly apply AI.
• Break down silos and barriers to adapting to a changing environment.

Make Strategic Bets

• Identify areas of your business that could be disrupted by AI.
• Make small investments in startups to hedge risks and options.

Pursue Open Innovation

• Partner with governments, academia, and other companies to shape the AI landscape.
• Work alongside leading researchers to experience AI advances firsthand.

The recommendations above can help executives future-proof their organizations as AI capabilities grow. While the timing of AGI remains uncertain, proactive steps today will enable your business to harness AI's benefits and competitive advantages. With the right strategy, your company can flourish in the age of artificial intelligence.