Preparing for a Future We Cannot Yet Imagine - Part Three: The Long-Term Effects of Artificial Intelligence

"In the long term, artificial intelligence and automation are going to be taking over so much of what gives humans a feeling of purpose." -Matt Bellamy, Lead Singer of Muse

There are a lot of people talking about #ChatGPT and #GPT-4 right now, both positively and negatively. As often happens when there is a divided opinion we get drawn into a narrower narrative across the news and social channels. I believe there is a need, in fact a duty, for those involved in developing AI as a technology to look at the longer-term gains and risks associated with the advancement of broader society.

In fact, in the mainstream news yesterday, it was reported that Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, Yuval Nuah Harrari and over 1,000 other tech experts have signed an open letter asking to pause training AI more powerful than GPT-4, warning that it could "represent a profound change in the history of life on Earth".

Yes, AI is now advancing at an unprecedented pace, and its long-term effects on society are difficult to predict (maybe we should use AI for this?). But while AI has incredible potential to transform our lives in ways that we cannot yet imagine, it is also important to be ahead of the inherent challenges associated with these “advancements”.

I mentioned in the earlier pieces about automation and efficiency. We know that many of today’s tools we use such as digital assistants and video streaming, or shopping recommendation engines are seen as making our lives easier. However, I believe that one of the most valuable outcomes from accelerating AI capabilities is in #healthcare. Personalized medicine, faster diagnoses, more accurate treatment recommendations and ultimately life-saving decisions are possible and happening today more and more. A great example of this is Lunit who are using AI for cancer detection and the results are undeniably impressive.

As AI technologies become able to automate increasingly complex tasks this will potentially lead to significant increases in productivity and efficiency in all industries. This could contribute to significant economic growth and prosperity, which if equitably spread, is a positive outcome. But if it significantly accelerates job displacement without alternative careers then the potential for societal disruption is of real concern.

This leads onto the topic of social structures as a broader topic. Try and imagine a completely different way in which governance, political systems, and wealth distribution operates. It’s difficult right? We have “norms” which have existed for a very long time and they are difficult to think outside of. AI could fundamentally transform the way that we organize ourselves as a society, potentially leading to significant changes in the distribution of power and wealth. This could lead to new forms of governance, as well as new economic models and social structures.

And then we come onto the more dramatic headlines out there, like the quote above from Matt Bellamy. There are also certainly risks associated with the long-term development of AI. One of the biggest concerns is the potential for runaway AI, in which AI systems become so advanced that they are able to operate beyond human control or understanding. This could lead to catastrophic consequences, such as the development of autonomous weapons or the loss of control over critical infrastructure.

It is critical that responsible actions and accountability take place in AI development and deployment, with a focus on ensuring that AI systems are developed in an ethical and transparent manner. Additionally, I believe governments need to invest in research to better understand the potential long-term impacts of AI, as well as the risks and challenges associated with pushing it further faster.

We also need to ensure that we as societies are prepared to adapt to the changes that AI is likely to bring about in the long term. This means investment in education and training programs to prepare workers for the new skills that will be required in an AI-driven economy, as well as modelling new social and political systems that are capable of addressing the challenges and opportunities of a world which could become dominated with AI-powered decision making.

So, have I signed the open letter?

I have not, yet. It is something I will decide in the coming days. What would you do?

In conclusion, the long-term effects of AI are likely to be utterly transformative, with both opportunities and risks for humanity and the planet. While AI has the potential to improve productivity, efficiency, and quality of life, it also raises concerns about job displacement, societal disruption, and the potential for catastrophic consequences. To prepare for this future, we need to prioritize responsible AI development and deployment, invest in research and development, and ensure that our social and political systems can adapt quickly to the changes that are coming. By doing so, we can harness the power of AI to create a more prosperous, equitable, and #sustainable future for all.

Coming Next: Will AI ever get the weather forecast right?

Can't wait? Check out this video from Microsoft. Very interesting.